Transcript Topic C: Environmental health assessment. Abstract TH010 Come see our platform presentation on Thursday 19.,12.30-12.50 hrs in the White 1 hall, session CS01B Climate change damage.

Topic C: Environmental health assessment. Abstract TH010
Come see our platform
presentation on Thursday
19.,12.30-12.50 hrs in the
White 1 hall, session
CS01B
Climate change damage functions in LCA
– (2) data availability and selection of indicators
Ingeborg
1,2
Callesen ,
2
C. ,
Beier,
Bagger Jørgensen
Hauschild, M.Z.1
2
R. ,
Olsen,
1
S.I.
and
1DTU
Management Engineering, Section for Quantitative Sustainability Assessment
2 Biosystems division, Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark. [email protected].
WHAT WE KNOW
Terrestrial global change signifies changes in the physical growth
environment (water and nutrient cycles, heat regimes, acidifying and ecotoxic
substances, ozone, and CO2).
Effects on ecosystems in response to global change will be diverse in time and
space. Ecosystem damages should be assessed from fine resolution dynamic
spatial models with detailed soil, climate and ecosystem state and function
(process) data adopting an ecosystem view and a landscape perspective.
WHAT WE DON’T KNOW
•The extent of growth environment changes. These depend on socioeconomic scenarios of the future including population growth, technological
development, life styles, mitigation activities (climate policy) and societal
efforts within ecosystem conservation and restoration activities.
•The sensitivity of many species and ecosystems towards global environment
changes
•Worldwide detailed descriptions of ‘valuable’ ecosystems and their species
assemblies
WHAT WE NEED – a global assessment of ecosystem services and their
relation with global change and biodiversity loss.
THE MODELLING CHALLENGE FOR ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
Modelling of future damages to ecosystem services requires a mix of assessment and
valuation techniques.
Market economy based provisioning ecosystem services (ES) can be described (e.g.
agriculture and forest yields, and traded CO2 emissions). Damages to provisioning
services can be measured as insured economic losses. For ES without market it’s
more difficult, e.g. supporting and regulating services.
Keywords for sustainability assessments: ECOSYSTEM VIEW – LANDSCAPE
PERSPECTIVE – RELEVANT SCALES IN TIME AND SPACE
Suggested ranking of ‘game changing’ drivers for ecosystem change by severity:
Flooding > land use change > invasive species, local extirpations, nitrogen
saturation, acidification, ozone, toxic compounds, changed precipitation,
temperature and wind regimes.
Data:
The www is full of on-line data. What to choose for LCIA of
climate damage?
Data collected or USED by whom : Science (blue), management
(yellow) or policy (red )??
High
Future ecosystem services:
Terrestrial global change leads to changes in
ecosystem services
F1
90
F2
F3
Relative ES damage, year 1990=0
80
70
F4
Sensitive ES, e.g.
arctic wildlife,
sensitive species
groups
Classifications, interpretations
Remote sensing data
Scaled observational data
based on remote sensing
REDD+
monitoring
Management,
compliance
Measured experimental
ISRIC soil
profile
database
GBIF
Low
CLIMAITE experiment
Measured observational
NASA Climate &
atmosphere obs.
Scale or resolution
Fine
F6 ?
Valuations, assessments
Aggregated modeled spatial
data, upscaled with covariates
Modeled spatial data, upscaled
with covariates
F5 ?
Coarse
Q: WHAT WE SUGGEST FOR LCIA re: impact category ’climate
60
change’ ?
50
A:
40
Robust ES, e.g.
global food
production, soil
formation
30
20
10
0
1990
FAO climate
assessment
2000
Level of abstraction
Q: If global warming potential is the midpoint what is
then the endpoint damage ?
A: Loss of ecosystem services or loss of biodiversity ?
100
+/- scenario based
Valuations, assessments
Cumulative global change pressure up to the year 2100:
2100
(climate change, landuse change, invasive species, water regime, nitrogen saturation, unusual water
stress, acidification and ozone, migration disturbances)
Adoption of the ’global change’ world view – focus on important possible,
clearly negative interactions between other damage drivers and climate change
damage on the natural environment and thus on ecosystem services.
Observation-based on-line access indicators from the science and the
management/policy domains. Examples of subject areas of future ES indicators:
Domain
Framework
Subject areas for Indicators
Providers or
sources
Science
STATUS
- Protected areas
- Status of selected threatened and endagered
species, species groups and ecosystems or more
aggregated the living planet index (WWF)
- Observed plant stress anomalies based on climate
data (fire, drought), e.g. ecosystem experiments
- FAO – forest inventory data on reserves and stocks
IUCN,
www.iucn.org
GBIF,
www.gbif.org
WWF,
www.wwf.org
Figure 1. F1-F6 are possible damage functions of cumulative global change pressures for different environmental services. On that timescale climate
change will be prominent, and interacting with most other drivers will occur. Modeling of possible damages will require socio-economic scenarios.
Abstract :
The unknown magnitude of future GHG emissions
and the complexity of the climate-carbon system induce large
uncertainties in the projected changes in the Area of protection ‘Natural
environment’. These may together be termed ‘global change’. A changed
climate may result in new interactions between global change drivers
and new directions of ecosystem change due to differing adaptive
capacities of biota and new species assemblages in ecosystems with
consequences for e.g. biodiversity.
Within the framework ‘ecosystem services’ both marketed and nonmarketed utilities of the natural environment are formulated.
Provisioning, cultural, supporting, and regulating ecosystem services
have been described. How will these services be affected by the
increasing atmospheric GHG concentrations ? How can the changes be
expressed in a damage model for LCIA? For the area of protection
‘Natural environment’ both sensitive and robust responses to climate
change may be foreseen for different species within ecosystems and
between ecosystems. A common metric may thus show high variability.
Plural metrics may be needed to adequately describe the variety of
different ecosystem services in different regional settings.
www.nasa.org
Science
Policy
Management
ENVIRONMENT
SCENARIO
www.FAO.org
www.ipcc.ch
- Future climate-carbon – feedback through
dynamic exchanges between marine and terrestrial
carbon pools and the atmosphere.
- Future sea level rise
- Assessment of invasive species’ potential range
enlargements due to climate change (a negative
interaction with climate change)
MITIGATION - Index for public and private spendings on nature
UNEP, other ?
STATUS
conservation and restoration, and law and
regulation compliance at nationalSCENARIO
scale
??
MITIGATION - REDD+ status, quantitative indicators for certified
STATUS
sustainable forest management in a development
context, energy efficiency of the technosphere
www.unredd.org
UNEP