Transcript www.pitt.edu/~super/ Just-in-Time Lecture Pakistan Earthquake 8 October 2005 Ardalan A, Kazmi Kh, LaPorte RE, Holakouie Naieni K, Dodani S, Pourmalek F, Shubnikov E, Linkov F,

www.pitt.edu/~super/
Just-in-Time Lecture
Pakistan Earthquake
8 October 2005
Ardalan A, Kazmi Kh, LaPorte RE, Holakouie Naieni K,
Dodani S, Pourmalek F, Shubnikov E, Linkov F, Russel M,
& Noji EK
Mission Statement:
The Global Health Network Disaster,
Network for Earthquake is designed to
translate the best possible scholarly
information from leading researchers
to educators worldwide.
What is the
Disaster Supercourse?
http://www.pitt.edu/~super1
What is a JIT lecture?
http://www.pitt.edu/~super1
Lecture objectives:
 To provide the best possible scientific
information about the Pakistan
earthquake of 8 Oct 2005
 To teach how the science can help
prepare for primary & secondary
prevention of consequences of
Pakistan earthquake, 8 Oct 2005
What is the earthquake?
The shaking of earth caused by waves
moving on and below the earth's
surface and causing: surface faulting,
tremors vibration, liquefaction,
landslides, aftershocks and/or
tsunamis
How the earthquake happens?

It caused by a sudden slip on a FAULT.

Stresses in the earth's
outer layer push sides of
fault together.

Stress builds up & rocks
slips suddenly, releasing
energy in waves that travel
through the earth's CRUST
& cause the shaking that we
Feel during an earthquake.
Earthquake Strength Measures
I) Magnitude & II) Intensity
I) Magnitude:
 Definition: A measure of actual physical
energy release at its source as estimated from
instrumental observations.
 Scale: Richter Scale
 By Charles Richter, 1936
 Open-ended scale
 The oldest & most widely used
Noji 1997
Earthquake Strength Measures
I) Magnitude & II) Intensity
II) Intensity:
 Definition: a measure of the felt or perceived
effects of an earthquake rather than the strength
of the earthquake itself.
 Scale: Modified Mercalli (MM) scale
 12-point scale, ranges from barely
perceptible earthquakes at MM I to
near total destruction at MM XII
Magnitude versus Intensity
 Magnitude refers to the force of the earthquake as
a whole, while intensity refers to the effects of an
earthquake at a particular site.
 An earthquake can have just one magnitude, while
intensity is usually strongest close to the epicenter
& is weaker the farther a site is from the epicenter.
 The intensity of an earthquake is more germane to
its public health consequences than its magnitude.
Northward movement of the Indian
subcontinent
(40 mm/yr = 1.6 inches/yr)
+
Colliding with the Eurasian continent
Earthquakes & active faults in
& adjacent parts of India & Afghanistan
USGS
Northern Pakistan
Seismicity of Pakistan
 Concentrated in N and W of the country, along
the boundary of the Indian plate & the Iranian
& Afghan micro-plates
 Thrust zones:
 Kirthar
 Sulaiman
 Salt ranges
 4 faults in & around Karachi
Peak Ground Acceleration (m/s2)
Based on Expected Ground Acceleration, Pakistan is
divided into 4 earthquake hazard zones.
Seismicity of Jammu & Kashmir
Earthquake, 8 Oct 2005:
One of the strongest earthquakes in
the area since a mammoth M7.6 in
Sep 1555 with max density XII in
Kashmir (Jammu & Kashmir) and India
History of earthquakes in Pakistan, 1980-2004
Date
20 Nov 2002
3 Nov 2002
1 Nov 2002
26 Jan 2001
27 Feb 1997
9 Aug 1993
31 Jan 1991
29 July 1985
30 Dec 1983
12 Sep 1981
Main Location
Hindukush Mountains
M
6.3
5.3
5.5
7.6
7.3
7.0
6.7
7.4
7.4
Death
23
17
1
20
50
300
5
14
Gilgit Wazarat
(Jammu & Kashmir), India
6.1
-
Gilgit-Astore
Gilgit-Astore
Gilgit-Astore
Near Bhachau (Gujarat)
Near Harnai (Baluchistan)
Hindukush Mountains
Hindukush Mountains
Hindukush Mountains
Largest earthquake in Pakistan !
 Date: 30 May 1935
 Location: Quetta / Balouchistan
 Magnitude: 8.1 on the Richter scale
 Time: 19:00:46.9 UTC
 Epicentre: 27.39N, 88.75E
 Depth: 17 Kms
 Death: 30,000
Pakistan’s Health Statistics:
 Total population: 153,578,000
 GDP per capita (Intl $, 2002): 1,920
 Life expectancy at birth m/f (years):
62,0/62,0
 Healthy life expectancy at birth m/f
(years, 2002): 54,2/52,3
Pakistan’s Health Statistics:
 Child mortality m/f (per 1000): 98/108
 Adult mortality m/f (per 1000): 225/199
 Total health expenditure per capita
(Intl $, 2002): 62
 Total health expenditure as % of GDP
(2002): 3,2
Pakistan Earthquake, 8 Oct 2005:
 Geolocation: 34.402°N, 73.560°E
 Region: Pakistani controlled Jammu &
Kashmir at N of Pakistan & Punjab
& Himachal Pradesh at N of India.
 Countries affected: Pakistan, India,
Afghanistan
 Affected area: Forest-clad mountains
Pakistan Earthquake, 8 Oct 2005:
 Depth: 10 km (6.2 miles)
 Epicentre Distances from Islamabad: 90 Km NNE
Pakistan Earthquake, 8 Oct 2005:
 Magnitude: 7.6 on the Richter scale (USGS)
7.8 on the Richter scale (JMA)
 Classification: Major
 Aftershock: ~ 200 from 5.4 – 6.2
 Date: Saturday 8 Oct 2005
 Time: 8:50 AM at the local time
 Death toll: ~ 50,000
 Injured: ~ 70,000
 Affected population:
 Severely: 3.027.900
 Marginally: 5.260.183
 Displaced/homeless:
 3.3 million
Pakistan Earthquake
Impacts
Balakot area:
 The worst hit area
 20,000 causalities
 90% buildings
destruction
 100% homeless
Muzaffarabad:
 80% destroyed
City of Bagh:
 Totally destroyed
Main affected
areas
Damage to health infrastructure:
Destruction of:
 26 hospitals
 3 Tuberculosis hospitals
 > 600 PHC centres
When disaster strikes, years of
development can be wiped out in seconds
The United Nations flash appeal for
Pakistan to cover the relief needs for
a 6 months emergency phase:
US$ 312 million
Relief operation obstacles:
 Huge numbers of injured
 Helicopters as the only means to get to cut-off
villages
 Logistical challenges
 Rapidly deteriorating weather conditions
 Continuous rains at nights
 Blocking roads by landslides
 Heavy clouds
Critical needs of the affected population:
 Winterised shelter up to 600,000 (based on
3 million needing shelter, 5 persons per
family)
 Medical services
 Water & sanitation
 Nutrition
 Reaching populations in villages
Health needs & concerns:
 Cold temperature (<0) & hypothermia
 Lack of sanitation facilities
 Lack of adequate & safe drinking water
 Need to water purification plants & Water tanks
 Need to latrines
 Problem of sanitary disposal of excreta and
 Basic hygiene
 Inadequate food
 Unaccompanied, separated, orphaned children
 Risk of diarrhoeal illnesses, pulmonary diseases
& non-treatment of injured and infected open
fractures & gangrenes
Dead bodies do not lead to epidemics,
but the bad odour is always a problem, as
it is true in Pakistan and was in Bam.
Solution: Spraying campaigns with
chlorine
A major problem in efficient service
delivery to really affected people:
 Increasing number of people moving into
Balakot from outlying villages seeking
assistance!
Bam earthquake lessons learned:
We should focus on:
 Incident Command System (ICS)
 Inter and Intra sectoral Coordination
 Emergency Health Information System
(EHIS)
Public Health Consequences of
Earthquakes
Pease see the following lectures:
Part I.
http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/lecture/lec13021/index.htm
Part II.
http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/lecture/lec13051/index.htm
Time of Pakistan earthquake,8 Oct 2005:

Around 9 AM on Saturday & most
students were at schools when the
earthquake struck !!
Epidemiology of fear:

I feel we need to reach out first, are schools
all over Pakistan but particularly in cities like
Lahore and Islamabad who experienced
earthquake but fortunately escaped with out
major damage. These young minds are also
affected by the stories of hundreds of young
students who have lost their lives in other
areas.
Dr. Khawar Kazmi
 People need information as much as
water, food, medicine or shelter.
 Information can save lives, livelihoods &
resources.
 Lack of information can make people
victims of disaster.
World Disaster Report 2005 – IFRC/RCS
Just-in-Time Education:
Let’s teach the school children right now !
Average Disaster Per Year in Pakistan
1
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Flood
0.62
0.62
0.05
Earthquake
Cyclone
Drought
UNDP
Proportion of People Killed per Type of
Disaster (1980-2000)
%
70
69
60
50
40
30
20
18
11
10
2
0
Flood
Earthquake
Cyclone
Drought
UNDP
Comparison of Proportion of People Killed following
Earthquakes between Pakistan & other countries
(1980-2000)
%
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
94
80
69
3
Iran
Japan
Pakistan
USA
UNDP
Comparison of 10-year death in Pakistan between
Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD) & Earthquakes
1,600,000
1,500,000
1,200,000
30 times more death
due to CVDs than
earthquakes
800,000
400,000
50,000
0
Cardio Vascular Disease
Earthquake
Earthquake Nature:
 Almost unpredictable disaster
 No early warning
 No scientific prediction technology
But we can protect ourselves &
minimize the damage to our
homes, schools & work places.
What we should do/do not before,
during & after the earthquake?
Please read carefully at:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/faq/prepare.html
References
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