Transcript What If… The Washington Region Grew Differently? Public Forum on Alternative Transportation and Land-Use Scenarios National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board.

What If…
The Washington Region
Grew Differently?
Public Forum on Alternative
Transportation and Land-Use Scenarios
National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board
1
Study of “What If”
Scenarios

What if job and housing growth were
shifted? What if new roads or transit
were built?

How would 2030 travel conditions
change?

Not looking at “how to,” just “what if.”
2
Historical and Forecast Trends
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The Washington Region

Approximately 3,000
square miles

Includes 4.5 million
people and 2.8 million
jobs

The National Capital
Region Transportation
Planning Board (TPB)
prepares a financially
constrained, 30-year
transportation plan for
the region
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Employment is Growing Faster
than Population
Growth 1970 - 2000
Population
50%
1970: 3 Million
2000: 4.5 Million
87%
Employment
1970: 1.5 Million
2000: 2.8 Million
Forecast Trends 2000 - 2030
Population
36%
2000: 4.5 Million
2030: 6.2 Million
Employment
2000: 2.8 Million
2030: 4.2 Million
48%
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The Highway System
Won’t Keep Pace
Forecast Trends 2000 - 2030
Daily Vehicle
Miles Traveled
37%
2000: 109 Million
2030: 150 Million
Freeway and
Arterial Lane
Miles
16%
2000: 15,300 Miles
2030: 17,600 Miles
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Most Transportation Dollars Are
Needed for Maintenance
Little money is available for new transportation projects
New Roads
and Transit*
23%
77%
Operations & Preservation*
* Based on region’s 2003 Constrained Long-Range Plan
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Most of the Beltway Will Be Stop and Go
Evening Highway Congestion 2000 and 2030
2
Ba
2000
Congested Flow
(Average Speed 30 to 50 mph)
Stop and Go Conditions
(Average
(Average Speed
Speed << 30
30 mph)
mph)
2030
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Looking at
“What If” Scenarios:
A Building Block Approach
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What if current plans don’t
change?

Regional Transportation Plan - Projects
with anticipated funding
 Current Growth Forecasts - Jobs and
households
Regional Transportation
Plan and Current Growth
Forecasts
1
10
How would travel conditions change
between 2010 and 2030?
Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts
Daily Vehicle
Miles of Travel
20%
2010: 125 Million
2030: 150 Million
Miles of AM
Congestion
52%
2010: 1,700 Miles
2030: 2,600 Miles
Transit Trips
22%
2010: 1 Million
2030: 1.3 Million
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What if the capacity of the current
transit system was maximized?

Longer trains, station improvements, expanded bus
service, and more commuter trains to accommodate
projected demand
“Enhanced Transit” 2
Scenario
Regional Transportation
Plan and Current Growth
Forecasts
1
12
How would travel conditions change
between 2010 and 2030?
“Enhanced Transit” Scenario
Daily Vehicle
Miles of Travel
2010: 125 Million
Current Plan
20%
Enhanced Transit
19%
52%
Miles of AM
Congestion
49%
2010: 1,700 Miles
Transit Trips
2010: 1 Million
22%
32%
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What if land use patterns
also changed?
Alternative Land Use
Scenarios
33
“Enhanced Transit”
Scenario
2
Regional Transportation
Plan and Current Growth
Forecasts
1
14
What are some of the key
issues the land use
scenarios address?
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Issue #1: Job Growth is
Outpacing Household Growth
Growth 2010 – 2030
(Thousands)
Additional Households
Needed to Balance Jobs
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Forecast
Job
Growth
Forecast
Household
Growth
The region must
“import” workers from
as far away as West
Virginia and
Pennsylvania
0
Assumes 1.5 Workers/Household
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What if more people who
worked here lived here?
WV
Balt.
Scenario #1:
“More Households”

Increase household
growth to balance forecast
job growth
 Locate households in
regional “Activity Clusters”
VA
More
Households
“Enhanced Transit”
Scenario
Regional
Transportation
Regional
Transportation
PlanPlan
and and
Current
Growth
Forecasts
Current
Growth
Forecasts
Increase household growth by 200,000
Regional Activity Cluster
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Scenario #1: “More Households”
How would travel conditions change between
2010 and 2030?
Baseline (Enhanced Transit)
Daily Vehicle
Miles of Travel
2010: 125 Million
19%
More Households
18%
49%
Miles of AM
Congestion
43%
2010: 1,700 Miles
Transit Trips
2010: 1 Million
32%
48%
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Scenario #1: “More Households”
Baseline (Enhanced Transit)
Daily Vehicle
Miles of Travel
2010: 125 Million
19%
More Households
18%
Even with 200,000 more
households, the growth in
vehicle miles of travel would
be slowed.
Plus…
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Scenario #1: More Households”
Under Scenario #1, the average person
would drive two miles less per day.
2010:
23.4 miles/ person
2030 Baseline:
24.2 miles/ person
2030 Scenario #1:
22.1 miles/ person
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Issue #2: Workers are Living
Farther Away from Their Jobs

Inner jurisdictions
– most job growth

Outer jurisdictions
– lion’s share of
household growth
The average commute is
more than 30 minutes.
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What if people lived
closer to their jobs?
Scenario #2A:
“Households In”

Shift household growth
to inner jurisdictions (to
get people closer to
jobs)
Households
In
“Enhanced Transit”
Scenario
Regional Transportation Plan and
Current Growth Forecasts
Shift 84,000 households
Regional Activity Cluster
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Scenario #2A: “Households In”
How would travel conditions change between
2010 and 2030?
Baseline (Enhanced Transit)
Daily Vehicle
Miles of Travel
2010: 125 Million
19%
Households In
19%
49%
Miles of AM
Congestion
39%
2010: 1,700 Miles
Transit Trips
2010: 1 Million
32%
36%
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Scenario 2A: “Households In”
This scenario would have the biggest
impact on morning congestion.
Baseline (Enhanced Transit)
Households In
Miles of AM
Congestion
2010: 1,700 Miles
49%
39%
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What if jobs were
located closer to where
people live?
Scenario #2B:
“Jobs Out”

Shift job growth to outer
jurisdictions (to get jobs
closer to new housing)
Jobs Out
“Enhanced Transit”
Scenario
Regional Transportation Plan and
Current Growth Forecasts
Shift 82,000 jobs
Regional Activity Cluster
25
Scenario #2B: “Jobs Out”
How would travel conditions change between
2010 and 2030?
Baseline (Enhanced Transit)
Daily Vehicle
Miles of Travel
2010: 125 Million
19%
Jobs Out
19%
49%
Miles of AM
Congestion
45%
2010: 1,700 Miles
Transit Trips
2010: 1 Million
32%
25%
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Scenario #2B: “Jobs Out”
Transit use would not grow as
quickly.
(Not enough transit service in outer jurisdictions.)
Baseline (Enhanced Transit)
Jobs Out
Transit Trips
2010: 1 Million
32%
25%
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Scenario #2B: “Jobs Out”
But the scenario still would slow
the growth of congestion.
Baseline (Enhanced Transit)
Jobs Out
Miles of AM
Congestion
2010: 1,700 Miles
49%
45%
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Issue #3: East-West Divide
A 1999 Brookings Institution report highlighted
disparities between the eastern and western
parts of the region
Job Growth Rate 1990 – 2000
20%
1%
West
East
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Issue #3: East-West Divide
West-bound travel clogs the roads during morning rush hour
Average Commute Time
Up to 30 minutes
Up to 40 minutes
Over 40 minutes
Morning Rush Hour
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What if there were more
development on the
eastern side of the region?
Scenario #3:
“Region Undivided”

Shift job and household
growth from West to
East
Region
Undivided
“Enhanced Transit”
Scenario
Regional Transportation Plan and
Current Growth Forecasts
Regional Activity Cluster
Shift 57,000 households and 114,000 jobs
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Scenario #3: “Region Undivided”
How would travel conditions change between
2010 and 2030?
The trends are encouraging.
Daily Vehicle
Miles of Travel
2010: 125 Million
Baseline (Enhanced Transit)
Region Undivided
19%
18%
49%
Miles of AM
Congestion
47%
2010: 1,700 Miles
Transit Trips
2010: 1 Million
32%
38%
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Issue #4: Most Growth Located
Outside Transit Station Areas
Employment
Growth
2010 to
2030
30%
70%
Inside Transit
Station Areas
Household
Growth
2010 to
2030
20%
Outside Transit
Station Areas
80%
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What if people lived and worked
closer to transit?
Scenario #4:
“Transit Oriented”

Locate job and household
growth around transit
stations
Transit Oriented
Development
“Enhanced Transit”
Scenario
Regional Transportation Plan and
Current Growth Forecasts
Metro Rail
Commuter Rail
Bus
Shift 125,000 households and 150,000 jobs
34
Scenario #4: “Transit Oriented”
How would travel conditions change
between 2010 and 2030?
Again, the trends are encouraging.
Baseline (Enhanced Transit)
Daily Vehicle
Miles of Travel
2010: 125 Million
Transit Oriented
19%
18%
49%
Miles of AM
Congestion
43%
2010: 1,700 Miles
Transit Trips
2010: 1 Million
32%
37%
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What do these
scenarios tell us?
36
The scenarios show
some favorable trends.
 Transit
trips would increase.
 The
growth in morning
congestion would be slowed.
37
Why aren’t the impacts
greater?
38
Most jobs and housing
for 2030 are already in place.
2030 Households
13%
Growth
by 2010
Already in
place
Growth
Households
in 2000
72%
by 2030
Underway or
in the pipeline
15%
Affected by
scenarios
(Of course, some of this might be rezoned or redeveloped in the future…)
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Significant change takes time.

Scenarios only look out to 2030, but impacts may be
greatest in 2040, 2050, and beyond

For example, just look
at how long it took to
get Metro in place . . .
Courtesy of WMATA
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Scenario impacts may be large
locally, but small regionally.
Before
After
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Is there a way to magnify
the impacts?
42
The impacts might be greater if
transportation improvements
were added.
For example:
+
New
roads,
bridges,
transit
=?
Future stages of the study will include
transportation scenarios…
43
Impacts might be even greater if
we combined scenarios.
For example, what if we combined:
• Scenario #3 (Region Undivided)
• Scenario #4 (Transit Oriented Development)
• and transportation improvements ?
+
+
New
roads,
bridges,
transit
=?
Future stages of the study will
look at such combinations…
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Combining
Scenarios
Next Study Phase
5
Alternative
Transportation
Scenarios
Alternative Land
Use Scenarios
“Enhanced Transit”
Scenario
Regional Transportation
Plan and Current
Growth Forecasts

4
Alternative transportation
scenarios

3


2
1


New rail lines?
New bus routes?
New roads?
New bridges?
Combining transportation
and land use scenarios
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For more information, contact the
Transportation Planning Board:
(202) 962-3200
[email protected]
www.mwcog.org/transportation
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