What If… The Washington Region Grew Differently? Public Forum on Alternative Transportation and Land-Use Scenarios National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board DRAFT 10-20-04
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What If… The Washington Region Grew Differently? Public Forum on Alternative Transportation and Land-Use Scenarios National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board DRAFT 10-20-04 1 Study of “What If” Scenarios What if job and housing growth were shifted? What if new roads or transit were built? How would 2030 travel conditions change? Not looking at “how to,” just “what if.” DRAFT 10-20-04 2 Presentation Outline Historical and Forecast Trends “What If” Scenarios: A Building Block Approach Alternative Land Use Scenarios What Do the Scenarios Tell Us? Next Study Phase DRAFT 10-20-04 3 Historical and Forecast Trends DRAFT 10-20-04 4 The Washington Region DRAFT 10-20-04 Approximately 3,000 square miles Includes 4.5 million people and 2.8 million jobs The National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board (TPB) prepares a financially constrained, 30-year transportation plan for the region 5 Employment is Growing Faster than Population Growth 1970 - 2000 Population 50% 1970: 3 Million 2000: 4.5 Million 87% Employment 1970: 1.5 Million 2000: 2.8 Million Forecast Trends 2000 - 2030 Population 36% 2000: 4.5 Million 2030: 6.2 Million Employment DRAFT 10-20-04 2000: 2.8 Million 2030: 4.2 Million 48% 6 The Highway System Won’t Keep Pace Forecast Trends 2000 - 2030 Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled 37% 2000: 109 Million 2030: 150 Million Freeway and Arterial Lane Miles 16% 2000: 15,300 Miles 2030: 17,600 Miles DRAFT 10-20-04 7 Most Transportation Dollars Are Needed for Maintenance Little money is available for new transportation projects New Roads and Transit 23% 77% Operations & Preservation DRAFT 10-20-04 8 Most of the Beltway Will Be Stop and Go Evening Highway Congestion 2000 and 2030 2 Ba 2000 DRAFT 10-20-04 Congested Flow (Average Speed 30 to 50 mph) Stop and Go Conditions (Average Speed < 30 mph) 2030 9 Metro Platforms and Trains Will Be Packed Morning Peak-Hour Transit Congestion: 2000 and 2030 2000 DRAFT 10-20-04 Congested Highly Congested 2030 10 Looking at “What If” Scenarios: A Building Block Approach DRAFT 10-20-04 11 What if current plans don’t change? Regional Transportation Plan - Projects with anticipated funding Current Growth Forecasts - Jobs and households Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts DRAFT 10-20-04 1 12 How would travel conditions change between 2010 and 2030? Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts Daily Vehicle Miles of Travel 20% 2010: 125 Million 2030: 150 Million Miles of AM Congestion 52% 2010: 1,700 Miles 2030: 2,600 Miles Transit Trips 22% 2010: 1 Million 2030: 1.3 Million DRAFT 10-20-04 13 What if the capacity of the current transit system was maximized? Longer trains, station improvements, expanded bus service, and more commuter trains to accommodate projected demand “Enhanced Transit” 2 Scenario Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts DRAFT 10-20-04 1 14 How would travel conditions change between 2010 and 2030? “Enhanced Transit” Scenario Daily Vehicle Miles of Travel 2010: 125 Million Current Plan 20% Enhanced Transit 19% 52% Miles of AM Congestion 49% 2010: 1,700 Miles Transit Trips 2010: 1 Million DRAFT 10-20-04 22% 32% 15 What if land use patterns also changed? Alternative Land Use Scenarios DRAFT 10-20-04 33 “Enhanced Transit” Scenario 2 Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts 1 16 What are some of the key issues the land use scenarios might address? DRAFT 10-20-04 17 Issue #1: Job Growth is Outpacing Household Growth Growth 2010 – 2030 (Thousands) Additional Households Needed to Balance Jobs 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Forecast Job Growth Forecast Household Growth The region must “import” workers from as far away as West Virginia and Pennsylvania 0 DRAFT 10-20-04 Assumes 1.5 Workers/Household 18 What if more people who worked here lived here? WV Balt. Scenario #1: “More Households” Increase household growth to balance forecast job growth Locate households in regional “Activity Clusters” VA More Households “Enhanced Transit” Scenario Regional Transportation Regional Transportation PlanPlan and and Current Growth Forecasts Current Growth Forecasts DRAFT 10-20-04 Increase household growth by 200,000 Regional Activity Cluster 19 Scenario #1: “More Households” How would travel conditions change between 2010 and 2030? Baseline (Enhanced Transit) Daily Vehicle Miles of Travel 2010: 125 Million 19% More Households 18% 49% Miles of AM Congestion 43% 2010: 1,700 Miles Transit Trips 2010: 1 Million DRAFT 10-20-04 32% 48% 20 Scenario #1: “More Households” Baseline (Enhanced Transit) Daily Vehicle Miles of Travel 2010: 125 Million More Households 18% Even with 200,000 more households, daily vehicle miles of travel would go down. Plus… DRAFT 10-20-04 21 Scenario #1: More Households” Under Scenario #1, the average person would drive two miles less per day. 2010: 23.4 miles/ person 2030 Baseline: 24.2 miles/ person 2030 Scenario #1: 22.1 miles/ person Daily Vehicle Miles of Travel per Person Baseline (Enhanced Transit) Scenario #1 3% -6% DRAFT 10-20-04 22 Issue #2: Workers are Living Farther Away from Their Jobs Inner jurisdictions – most job growth Outer jurisdictions – lion’s share of household growth Average commute – more than 30 minutes DRAFT 10-20-04 23 What if people lived closer to their jobs? Scenario #2A: “Households In” Shift household growth to inner jurisdictions (to get people closer to jobs) Households In “Enhanced Transit” Scenario Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts DRAFT 10-20-04 Shift 84,000 households Regional Activity Cluster 24 Scenario #2A: “Households In” How would travel conditions change between 2010 and 2030? Baseline (Enhanced Transit) Daily Vehicle Miles of Travel 2010: 125 Million 19% Households In 19% 49% Miles of AM Congestion 39% 2010: 1,700 Miles Transit Trips 2010: 1 Million DRAFT 10-20-04 32% 36% 25 Scenario 2A: “Households In” This scenario would have the biggest impact on morning congestion. Baseline (Enhanced Transit) Households In Miles of AM Congestion 2010: 1,700 Miles DRAFT 10-20-04 49% 39% 26 What if jobs were located closer to where people live? Scenario #2B: “Jobs Out” Shift job growth to outer jurisdictions (to get jobs closer to new housing) Jobs Out “Enhanced Transit” Scenario Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts DRAFT 10-20-04 Shift 82,000 jobs Regional Activity Cluster 27 Scenario #2B: “Jobs Out” How would travel conditions change between 2010 and 2030? Baseline (Enhanced Transit) Daily Vehicle Miles of Travel 2010: 125 Million 19% Jobs Out 19% 49% Miles of AM Congestion 45% 2010: 1,700 Miles Transit Trips 2010: 1 Million DRAFT 10-20-04 32% 25% 28 Scenario #2B: “Jobs Out” Transit use would not grow as quickly. (Not enough transit service in outer jurisdictions.) Baseline (Enhanced Transit) Jobs Out Transit Trips 2010: 1 Million DRAFT 10-20-04 32% 25% 29 Scenario #2B: “Jobs Out” But the scenario still would slow the growth of congestion. Baseline (Enhanced Transit) Jobs Out Miles of AM Congestion 2010: 1,700 Miles DRAFT 10-20-04 49% 45% 30 Issue #3: East-West Divide A 1999 Brookings Institution report highlighted disparities between the eastern and western parts of the region Job Growth Rate 1990 – 2000 20% 1% DRAFT 10-20-04 West East 31 Issue #3: East-West Divide West-bound travel clogs the roads during morning rush hour Average Commute Time Up to 30 minutes Up to 40 minutes Over 40 minutes Morning Rush Hour DRAFT 10-20-04 32 What if there were more development on the eastern side of the region? Scenario #3: “Region Undivided” Shift job and household growth from West to East Region Undivided “Enhanced Transit” Scenario Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts DRAFT 10-20-04 Regional Activity Cluster Shift 57,000 households and 114,000 jobs 33 Scenario #3: “Region Undivided” How would travel conditions change between 2010 and 2030? The trends are encouraging. Daily Vehicle Miles of Travel 2010: 125 Million Baseline (Enhanced Transit) Region Undivided 19% 18% 49% Miles of AM Congestion 47% 2010: 1,700 Miles Transit Trips 2010: 1 Million DRAFT 10-20-04 32% 38% 34 Issue #4: Most Growth Located Outside Transit Station Areas Employment Growth 2010 to 2030 30% 70% Inside Transit Station Areas Household 20% Growth 2010 to 2030 80% Outside Transit Station Areas DRAFT 10-20-04 35 What if people lived and worked closer to transit? Scenario #4: “Transit Oriented” Locate job and household growth around transit stations Transit Oriented Development “Enhanced Transit” Scenario Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts Metro Rail Commuter Rail Bus DRAFT 10-20-04 Shift 125,000 households and 150,000 jobs 36 Scenario #4: “Transit Oriented” How would travel conditions change between 2010 and 2030? Again, the trends are encouraging. Baseline (Enhanced Transit) Daily Vehicle Miles of Travel 2010: 125 Million Transit Oriented 19% 18% 49% Miles of AM Congestion 43% 2010: 1,700 Miles Transit Trips 2010: 1 Million DRAFT 10-20-04 32% 37% 37 What do these scenarios tell us? DRAFT 10-20-04 38 The scenarios show some favorable trends. Transit trips would increase. The growth in morning congestion would be slowed. DRAFT 10-20-04 39 Why aren’t the impacts greater? DRAFT 10-20-04 40 Most jobs and housing for 2030 are already in place. 2030 Households 13% Growth by 2010 Already in place Growth Households in 2000 72% by 2030 Underway or in the pipeline 15% Affected by scenarios (Of course, some of this might be rezoned or redeveloped in the future…) DRAFT 10-20-04 41 Scenario impacts may be small regionally, but large locally. Before After DRAFT 10-20-04 42 Significant change takes time. Scenarios only look out to 2030, but impacts may be greatest in 2040, 2050, and beyond For example, just look at how long it took to get Metro in place . . . Courtesy of WMATA DRAFT 10-20-04 43 Is there a way to magnify the impacts? DRAFT 10-20-04 44 The impacts might be greater if transportation improvements were added. For example: + New roads, bridges, transit =? Future stages of the study will include transportation scenarios… DRAFT 10-20-04 45 Impacts might be even greater if we combined scenarios. For example, what if we combined: • Scenario #3 (Region Undivided) • Scenario #4 (Transit Oriented Development) • and transportation improvements ? + + New roads, bridges, transit =? Future stages of the study will look at such combinations… DRAFT 10-20-04 46 Combining Scenarios 5 Alternative Transportation Scenarios Alternative Land Use Scenarios “Enhanced Transit” Scenario Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts DRAFT 10-20-04 Next Study Phase 4 Alternative transportation scenarios 3 2 1 New rail lines? New bus routes? New roads? New bridges? Combining transportation and land use scenarios 47 Discussion Questions What did you think of the presentation? What did you think of the scenarios? What transportation scenarios should be looked at? DRAFT 10-20-04 48 For more information, contact the Transportation Planning Board: (202) 962-3200 [email protected] www.mwcog.org/transportation DRAFT 10-20-04 49