Transcript Climate change adaptation: managing with uncertainty Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship Andrew Ash Flagship Director November 2008

Climate change adaptation: managing with
uncertainty
Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship
Andrew Ash
Flagship Director
November 2008
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All indications are that climate change will be
at the top end of projections until 2030
World CO2 emissions to 2030 (GtC) *from fuel combustion and cement production
New economic
growth path
20.0
Highest
IPCC
emission
scenario
16.0
12.0
8.0
4.0
0.0
1990
A1
2000
1990
A1F1
2010 2010
2000
A1T
A2
2020
2020
B1
Source: Sheehan, Jones et al. (forthcoming 2008) Global Environmental Change.
B2
2030
2030
New growth path
Temperature records reflect these high levels of
emissions
Rahmstorf et al.
As do sea levels - current and future rate of rise
unprecedented during modern civilisation
The challenge is increasing every day
• Emissions peak in 2020, stabilisation at 550 ppm CO2e = 6%
annual reduction in emissions
• Emissions peak in 2020, stabilisation at 650 ppm CO2e = 3%
annual reduction in emissions
2007 IPCC projections: Temperature
Future impacts - coasts
Ongoing coastal development and
population growth, in areas such as
Cairns and southeast Queensland, are
projected to exacerbate risks from sealevel rise and increases in the severity
and frequency of storms and coastal
flooding by 2050
•
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At Collaroy/Narrabeen beach (NSW), a
sea-level rise of 0.2 m by 2050 combined
with a 50-year storm event leads to
coastal recession exceeding 110 m,
causing losses of $245 million
The area of Cairns at risk of inundation
by a 1 in 100 year storm surge is likely to
more than double by 2050
IPCC 2007
Cost of flood events
Residential & commercial costs associated with different flood events
$500
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Cost - $Millions
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Probabilities of different flood events
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Responding to the National Challenge
• There are two points of action: mitigation (addressing the cause)
and adaptation (planned response to the changes)
• Mitigation of climate change refers to those response strategies
that reduce the sources of greenhouse gases or enhance their sinks
• Adaptation involves adjusting practices, processes and capital in
response to the actuality or threat of climate change as well as
changes in the decision environment such as social and institutional
structures.
Adaptation/mitigation see saw
High mitigation
now
Higher impacts
and adaptation
later
Low mitigation
now
Lower impacts
and adaptation
later
The case for climate adaptation
“The international community is too late with
effective mitigation to avoid significant impacts. It
may yet fail to put in place substantial mitigation, in
which case the challenge of adaptation to climate
change will be more daunting”.
“As a nation, Australia has a high level of capacity
to plan for and respond to the impacts of climate
change – that is, its adaptation potential is high.”
Garnaut Climate Change Review – July 2008
We are adapting all the time ….
• Businesses re-position themselves in response to
opportunities and risks
• Governments change policies and programs to
better achieve broad societal goals
• These decisions are taken all the time – in the
absence of complete information
• Climate change is no different
• Our aim is to help make adaptations more effective
and efficient in the face of uncertain climate changes
How important is climate prediction to
adaptation?
• Climate science has been enormously valuable in detecting and
attributing recent changes in the climate system
• Advances in scientific understanding and in computational
resources has increased the credibility of climate models in
terms of climate projections
Optimal decision-making predicated on the predictive
accuracy of climate models
• “the effectiveness of proactive adaptation to climate change
often depends on the accuracy of regional climate and impact
projections, which are subject to substantial uncertainty”
(Fussel 2007)
Demand for more certainty is increasing
• Local government, planners and industry are increasingly
calling for more accurate climate projections at finer scales of
resolution
The challenge of irreducible uncertainties
• Yet the accuracy of climate projections is limited by
fundamental, irreducible uncertainties (Dessai et al 2008)
• Climate system knowledge, chaotic processes
• Uncertainty about future greenhouse gas emissions
• This uncertainty in climate projections cascades when
conducting impacts assessments
Improved use of statistics to reduce uncertainties
• Combining model outputs and statistical approaches using
observed trends may help in reducing uncertainties for climate
projections in the timeframe of 10 to 20 years
• Statistical downscaling to maintain accuracy while improving
precision
• More rigorous approaches to selecting climate models for use
in Australia
Making decisions in the face of uncertainty
• Decisions can be made (and are made) without accurate
predictions of the future
• Better to use a range of plausible scenarios combining climate
projections and other factors to explore outcomes and risks
• Need to include extremes in scenarios to properly assess risk
Using ABS/ABARE data to explore vulnerability
Australian agriculture
Figure 11. The vulnerability of broadacre farming households across Australia to climate
change. The map on left uses shows vulnerability to the impacts of climate change on pasture,
while the map on the right shows vulnerability to climate change impacts on farm incomes.
High
Moderate
Low
Sydney Coastal region vulnerability
• Spatial data essential
Adapting to climate change
Stationary Climate &
Coping Range
Changing Climate
Vulnerable
Coping
Range
Vulnerable
Stationary Climate &
Coping Range
Changing Climate
Vulnerable
Adaptation
Coping
Range
Planning Horizon
Vulnerable
Conclusion
• The predict and provide approach to climate impacts and
adaptation is flawed
• Adaptation and decision-making will benefit more from
understanding vulnerability to climate change driven by the
future climate and all its uncertainties in combination with other
economic, social and environmental drivers
• Good economic, environmental and social data is needed to
support vulnerability and adaptation and spatial data is
increasingly important
Climate Adaptation Flagship
Andrew Ash
Flagship Director
Phone: +61 7 32142346
Email: [email protected]
Media enquiries:
Louise Matthiesson
Communication Officer
CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship
Phone: +61 7 3214 2642
Mobile: 0405 284 102
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.csiro.au/org/ClimateAdaptationFlagship
Thank you
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