Transcript Linking operational activities and research Aida Diongue-Niang ANACIM/Senegal Met. Service African THORPEX Regional Committee co-chair ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011

Linking operational activities and
research
Aida Diongue-Niang
ANACIM/Senegal Met. Service
African THORPEX Regional Committee co-chair
ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011
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Weather Forecasting: Forcaster’s tasks
observations
Ensemble
prediction
Systems,
single or multimodel
Monitoring and
Updating
Analysis of the current
meteorological situation
Examination of the Future
Evolution of the
atmosphere and choice of
the most likely scenario
Description of the evolution
of the atmosphere and the
expected weather
Decision on issuing
warning in case of severe
weather
Distribution of products to
end-users
Verification /Validation
Model
analyses
one or more
Deterministic Models
forecasts: poor’s
man ensemble
Experience
Advances in Africa
 African National Met. Services have free access to
some global model products through Eumetcast (e.g.
ECMWF, UK) or Internet (e.g. GFS) to facilitate
operational weather forecasting.
 Forecasters’ weather stations for receiving,
processing and display (e.g. Messir. Com, MSG,
Synegy)
 Regional and local modelling are preformed in few
NMS to take more account their regional/local
chracteristics, provide diagnostics needed, for
applications (e.g Marine, air quality)
• Pioneers: South Africa and then Morocco
• Less than six countries running operational weather
models
Challenges of Op. Weather
Forecasting in Africa
Mainly related to:




Poor observing network,
Model performance,
Gap in modelling and model use,
Lack of training to catch-up with new tools (e.g GPS,
EPS) and to update knowledge (interactions researchoperational)
 Poor Technical environment
 Lack of documentation (e.g Forecaster’s handbook,
systematic reports) and systematic verification
Challenges related to observing systems to construct
initial conditions: surface observations
Statistics for synop reports
Challenges related to observing systems to construct
initial conditions: upper-air
Challenges in Weather Forecasting:
Precipitation
Measures of Forecast Skill
Anomaly Correlation Coefficient
(over European Sector)
Potential Vorticity
500 hPa Heights
Precipitation
ECMWF
ACC Asian Monsoon Rainfall
ACC for Asian Monsoon P
p/c
0.6
P
p/c
is 24h precipitation at SYNOP locations and divided by climatology
JJA 2006
JJA 2005
JJA 2004
JJA 2003
JJA 2002
JJA 2001
0.5
70% Confidence Interval
Anomaly Correlation
0.4
Monotonic improvement in skill
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Lead-time (days)
7
8
9
10
M.J.Rodwell
12UTC deterministic forecasts are used. Approximately 180 SYNOP stations are used each day
ACC North African Monsoon Rainfall
ACC for North African Monsoon P
p/c
0.6
P
p/c
is 24h precipitation at SYNOP locations and divided by climatology
JJA 2006
JJA 2005
JJA 2004
JJA 2003
JJA 2002
JJA 2001
0.5
70% Confidence Interval
Anomaly Correlation
0.4
Little or no skill
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
1.75
2.75
3.75
4.75
5.75
Lead-time (days)
6.75
7.75
8.75
9.75
M.J.Rodwell
12UTC deterministic forecasts are used. Approximately 20 SYNOP stations are used each day
Trends in 1-SEEPS (larger is better) : a skill based on contingency
tables and precipitation categories defined by the local climatological
probabilities
T. Haiden
Model background errors in NWP
and Climate models over Africa
(JJA)
Met Office, UK
GPCP: 1992-2007
NWP 1992: Day 1 - GPCP
© Crown copyright Met Office
Climate 20Year:
NWP 1992-2007:
HadGEM2 - GPCP
Day 1 - GPCP
NWP 2005: Day 1 - GPCP
Model errors in “dynamic” fields: AEJ in the framework of
JET2000
AEJ
hPa
s
N
120h Forecast
Summary
• High-impact weather: a major thread for Africa
• Predicting High-impact weather particularly challenging in
Africa
• Need to assess predictive skill of HIW and model ability to
predict HIW in order to determine systematic errors and
model limits
 Operational community invited to do systematic report of
HIW events and basic verification of the forecast for feedback
to research community and NWP centres
 Reseaerch community invited to do more analysis and
modelling studies based on selected cases by operational
community
 NWP centres invitedICSC-9,
to Geneve,
improve
models globally
21-22 September 2011
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Template for reporting HIW
basis SWFDP templates
• First, define threshold
• Example of template to discuss
ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011
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