Transcript Trade and Food Security in Central Asia Ekaterina Krivonos Trade and Markets Division FAO-Rome.

Trade and Food Security in
Central Asia
Ekaterina Krivonos
Trade and Markets Division
FAO-Rome
Outline
Trade and food security – conceptual linkages
II. Food security and agricultural trade in Caucasus
and Central Asia
III. FAO assistance to developing agricultural and food
trade capacities in the region
I.
Food security – main concepts
 Millennium Development Goals:

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger


Targets: between 1990 and 2015, halve the proportion of
people who suffer from hunger
Progress: 980 million in 1990-92; 852 million in 2010-12
 Food security exists when all people, at all times, have
physical, economic and social access to sufficient, safe
and nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and
food preferences for an active and healthy life
Food security – main concepts
Dimensions of food security:
 Availability: Having available sufficient quantities of food
on a consistent basis
 Access: Having sufficient resources to obtain food
 Utilization: Nutrition, diversity of diet, food preparation
 Stability: Risks to long-term food security
Trade affects all these dimensions
Trade policy and food security
 Changes in trade policy affect the relative prices of goods and factors =>
 Both food production and consumption are affected
 Different impacts on different segments and population groups
 Examples:


An export ban can boost domestic supplies and reduce prices in the shortrun. Good for consumers and domestic food processors, bad for agricultural
producers who export.
Trade liberalization is likely to reduce food prices to consumers and benefit
competitive farmers, but the incomes of other farmers, and their food
security, may be negatively affected.
Trade and food security – conceptual linkages
Possible
Availability
Access
Utilization
effects of
(Supply: food
(Incomes, expenditure,
(Nutrition and food
open trade production, stock levels
markets and prices)
safety)
and net trade.
Positive
↑ Quantity and variety  Net food importers:↓  ↑ Variety of available
of food available
Food prices
foods
 ↑ Incomes in
 ↑ Food safety and
competitive sectors
quality
 ↓ Input prices and
access to technology
 ↑ Growth, FDI and
employment
Negative
 Net food exporters:
 Net food exporters
 ↑Consumption of high
↓Own production
Food prices ↑
calorie / low
available for domestic  ↓ Incomes in sensitive nutritional value foods
consumption
/ non-competitive
 ↓ Consumption of
 Net food importers: ↓
sectors
traditional and
Domestic food
indigenous foods
production
Stability
(Weather political
instability, economic
factors
 ↓ Seasonality of
supplies
 ↑ Imports mitigate
local production
risks
 ↓ Own food
production
 ↑ Price volatility
from global markets
 ↑ Land grabbing
 ↑ Less space for
trade policy
response
Inclusive and efficient global market systems
 For countries to be able to participate effectively in global trading
systems we need to address differences in opportunities among
developing and developed countries (asymmetries)
• Countries need specific and different national strategies and policies to
benefit from international trade, improve livelihoods and pursue their
own food security objectives (while taking account of food security
needs elsewhere).
Food availability:
Agricultural production in Central Asia
Share of agricultural land and arable land
in total land area, % (2011)
Gross Agricultural Production Value
(constant 2004-2006 million US$) (2011)
12,000
Uzbekistan
10,000
Turkmenistan
8,000
Tajikistan
6,000
Kyrgyzstan
4,000
Kazakhstan
2,000
Azerbaijan
-
0.0
25.0
50.0
Arable land
75.0
Agricultural area
100.0
Livestock
Crops
Agriculture value added, share in GDP, % (2011)
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Source: FAOSTAT and WDI
Food availability:
Food production in Central Asia
Average value of food production, int.$ per capita
450
400
Between 2000-02 and
2008-10, the value of
production per capita
in Caucasus and
Central Asia increased
by 27%, double of
global growth.
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
Caucasus and Central Asia
Kazakhstan
Tajikistan
Azerbaijan
Kyrgyzstan
Turkmenistan
Source: The State of Food Insecurity in the World, 2012, FAO, Rome
Agricultural trade in Central Asia
Value of agricultural exports and imports in 2010
million US$
Trade balance in agricultural products
million US$
2,500
1,500
2,000
1,000
1,500
1,000
500
500
-
-
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-500
-1,000
Exports
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Imports
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Source: FAOSTAT
Food imports and vulnerability
Value of food imports over total merchandise
exports, %
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
Cereals imports dependency ratio, %
Imports/(production+ import-export)
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10
5
0
10.0
0.0
Caucasus and Central Asia
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Source: The State of Food Insecurity in the World, 2012, FAO, Rome
Agricultural exports
Agricultural exports are heavily concentrated in few products
 Azerbaijan: Oils and fats (31%*), sugar (24%) and fruits (13%)
 Kazakhstan: Wheat (49%) and wheat flour (29%)
 Kyrgyzstan: Beans (16%), cotton lint (12%) and fruits (12%)
 Tajikistan: Cotton lint (49%), tomatoes (15%), onions (15%) and dried
fruits (14%)
 Turkmenistan: Cotton lint (79%) and cotton linter (11%)
 Uzbekistan: Cotton lint (62%) and fruits (12%)
*Share
in the total value of agricultural exports in 2010
Economic access to food
Domestic Food Price Level Index
The ratio between food purchasing power parity (FPPP) by the General PPP
2.20
Between 2000 and
2012, food prices
(relative to the price
of generic
consumption basket)
in Caucasus and
Central Asia
increased by 26%
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
Caucasus and Central Asia
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Source: The State of Food Insecurity in the World, 2012, FAO, Rome
Food security - Outcomes
Prevalence of undernourishment
Proportion of the population estimated to be at risk of caloric inadequacy, %
45.0
Percentage of underweight children among
all children under 5 years (2005-06)
16.0
40.0
14.0
35.0
12.0
30.0
10.0
25.0
8.0
20.0
6.0
15.0
4.0
10.0
2.0
5.0
0.0
.0
Caucasus and Central Asia
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Note: The dotted line represents <5%
Source: The State of Food Insecurity in the World, 2012, FAO, Rome
FAO’s support to more inclusive
and efficient markets
 FAO provides analytical information, facilitates
evidence based policy advice and offers technical
support to enhance the capacity of countries to deal
with agricultural trade reforms
 In 2012–2013, FAO elaborated five new Strategic
Objectives (SOs)
 Strategic Objective 4: Enable more inclusive and
efficient agricultural and food systems at local,
national and international levels
 Agrarian Structures Initiative for Europe and
Central Asia:

Supporting smallholders with improved enabling and legislative
environment and lay the groundwork for further work to integrate
smallholders into markets.
FAO’s five Strategic
Objectives
SO1: Help eliminate hunger,
food insecurity and malnutrition
SO2: Make agriculture more
productive and sustainable
SO3: Reduce rural poverty
SO4: Enable inclusive and
efficient agricultural and food
systems
SO5: Protect livelihoods from
disasters
Agrarian Structures Initiative for
Europe and Central Asia (2013)
Inclusive and efficient agricultural and food
systems
Policies, regulations and
public goods
Agricultural
extension
service
Cooperatives and
alternatives
Formation
of a
Livestock
Producers
Group
Food losses
and waste
assessment
International
agreements
Cooperation
with the
Eurasian
Economic
Commission
WTO
training
Formation of a group of livestock producers in
Gorno-Badakhshan province, Tajikistan
Context:
 Extremely remote highland of the Pamirs
Mountain chain, scarcely populated by seminomadic communities of Kyrgyz origin ;
 Lack of pastures (land degradation + climate
change);
 Lack of technical training/knowledge on
value addition and marketing => rudimental
marketing (barter) and poor production
management (poor control of risks);
 AS A RESULT: poor farmer returns +
danger of forced migration due to
environmental degradation
Formation of a group of livestock producers in
Gorno-Badakhshan province, Tajikistan





Need to reduce pressure on the (fragile) ecosystem - “Less animals, better animals, take all
from animals!”
Solution: link farmers to the existing (and
growing!) premium meat market in the capital to
increase their incomes and improve livelihoods.
How? By facilitating the formation of a livestock
producers group and building its capacity to
make their farming profitable and
environmentally sustainable.
Competitive value chain identified: primecuts of yak meat and yak milk cheese. Later also
wool and down, skins, horns and hooves.
The goals: market-driven production
system, guaranteed food safety, social
inclusiveness and environmental sustainability.
Facilitating the understanding and adoption of WTO principles
and commitments for agriculture in the CIS region
 Joining WTO implies significant structural changes for the agriculture sector.
But accession alone does not guarantee that the CIS countries will participate
more effectively in global agricultural trade.
 The governments will need to develop their institutional capacities to carry
out the necessary reforms to comply with WTO commitments, and to adopt
accompanying measures to allow the agri-food sector to take advantage of
the opportunities that WTO membership provides.
Facilitating the understanding and adoption of WTO principles
and commitments for agriculture in the CIS region
Objectives: Contribute to formulation and implementation of policies to secure
greater benefits from expanding agricultural trade by enhancing understanding by
the stakeholders of the WTO commitments and their implications for agricultural
development in the CIS countries
The main outputs of the project are:
 Country case studies (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation and
Tajikistan);
 A regional workshop to identify and discuss the obligations and main
challenges facing the agriculture sector as the result of WTO accession
 Conducting an online course on WTO rules and country-specific accession
commitments for agriculture