Adaptation: Policy Perspectives Paul Watkiss (for Tom Downing) 24th October 2005 [email protected] Adaptation Given historic/current emissions - already committed to climate change (~2C?) Policy debate starting to.
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Transcript Adaptation: Policy Perspectives Paul Watkiss (for Tom Downing) 24th October 2005 [email protected] Adaptation Given historic/current emissions - already committed to climate change (~2C?) Policy debate starting to.
Adaptation:
Policy Perspectives
Paul Watkiss (for Tom Downing)
24th October 2005
[email protected]
Adaptation
Given historic/current emissions - already
committed to climate change (~2C?)
Policy debate starting to switch to adaptation
Adaptation focuses on risks and opportunities to
adapt to climate change
Action in the short, medium and longer-term
Institutional, structural, research
Sectors – Key Impacts (€) = Key adaptation
Sea level rise
Agriculture*
Energy use
Human health (temperature and disease)*
Water resources, water supply and water quality*
Tourism*
Ecosystems (productivity and bio-diversity*)
Built environment / infrastructure* (extremes - flooding, storm)
Major events
From Supporting Material (impacts and costs of climate change) for Communication on climate change
http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/climat/pdf/staff_work_paper_sec_2005_180_3.pdf
Adaptation Policy Review
Review of adaptation policy
Review potential policy frameworks – does adaptation fit within a
conventional decision making framework?
Review potential issues that likely to emerge in adaptation – and that
need a policy perspective
What is successful adaptation?
Adaptation Policy Progress
Starting to see emergence of adaptation policy frameworks and plans…
•
IPCC
•
UNDP/GEF Adaptation Policy Framework (APF)
•
FINADAPT
•
Canadian Climate Change
•
Australian Government - National Climate Change Adaptation Programme
•
UK CIP + UK Defra Adaptation Policy Framework (APF)
• UK work considering objectives, targets, indicators
•
Most – scope impact, quantify risks, discuss decision making / action.
Major Policy Challenges (1)
• Uncertainty
– Long time-frames
– Different levels of certainty (projections, risks extremes, major events)
– Dis-aggregration (high resolution needed for cost-effective adaptation)
– Consideration of precautionary principle?
– Irreversible losses (ecosystems)
• Policy action and legislation (real adaptation)
– Carried out at regional / local level by public / private sector.
– Effective / appropriate adaptation “stakeholder-led”, rather than enforced
Major Policy Challenges (2)
• Allocating costs
– Who should pay? Can we implement the polluter pays?
• Cost-effective adaptation?
– Climate proofing all human activities ? extremely expensive
– Likely to see a focus on cost-effective and proportionate adaptation
– Considering impact-assessment and CBA?
– Only adapt where costs of adaptation are less than costs of climate change
• Avoiding Mal-adaptation
– Inefficient use of resources compared to other options
– Ineffective (scenarios that not appear)
– Displacing vulnerability from one actor to another
Major Policy Challenges (3)
• Option appraisal and cost analysis
– Historical focus on policy focusing on technological options (and costs)
– Adaptation needs to consider non-technical options more explicitly
– impact assessment frameworks do not easily assess NT options
• Economic, ethical and political issues
– How discount long-term impacts CC vs costs of adaptation options now
– How should adaptation consider equity and distributional benefits
– Should we focus adaptation on protecting those less able to adapt (vs
those with capital / resources)
– Within countries, across Europe, Europe vs. developing countries
Successful adaptation?
1. Prepare to adapt by building capacity
Research
Awareness
Policies
Monitoring
2. Alter existing plans to manage climate risks
and take advantage of new opportunities
Urgent and high priority
Win-win, Low cost
Existing frameworks
Disaster responses
3. Implement adaptation actions
Cost-effective/Cost benefit analysis
Additional criteria-existing frameworks
Modify infrastructure
Alter processes
In Detail
1.
Define the overall (European) policy aim
2.
Determine priority sectors for adaptation action
3.
Characterise priority risks / opportunities (in each sector)
3a. Identify potential adaptation options
3b. Appraise adaptation options
4.
Propose adaptation objectives
5.
Define adaptation targets and indicators
6.
Link up policy framework at the EU, national and sectoral level
7.
Implement
8.
Monitor, Review and Revise
Conclusions
Adaptation
Need to develop policy framework –
Address policy issues
Research on costs and benefits
Cost-effective and proportionate
Mainstream adaptation policy in a conventional
decision-making and economic perspective
Tiered approach: prepare – plan - proceed