Transcript Adaptation: Policy Perspectives Paul Watkiss (for Tom Downing) 24th October 2005 [email protected] Adaptation  Given historic/current emissions - already committed to climate change (~2C?)  Policy debate starting to.

Adaptation:
Policy Perspectives
Paul Watkiss (for Tom Downing)
24th October 2005
[email protected]
Adaptation

Given historic/current emissions - already
committed to climate change (~2C?)

Policy debate starting to switch to adaptation

Adaptation focuses on risks and opportunities to
adapt to climate change

Action in the short, medium and longer-term

Institutional, structural, research
Sectors – Key Impacts (€) = Key adaptation

Sea level rise

Agriculture*

Energy use

Human health (temperature and disease)*

Water resources, water supply and water quality*

Tourism*
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Ecosystems (productivity and bio-diversity*)

Built environment / infrastructure* (extremes - flooding, storm)

Major events
From Supporting Material (impacts and costs of climate change) for Communication on climate change
http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/climat/pdf/staff_work_paper_sec_2005_180_3.pdf
Adaptation Policy Review

Review of adaptation policy
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Review potential policy frameworks – does adaptation fit within a
conventional decision making framework?
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Review potential issues that likely to emerge in adaptation – and that
need a policy perspective
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What is successful adaptation?
Adaptation Policy Progress
Starting to see emergence of adaptation policy frameworks and plans…
•
IPCC
•
UNDP/GEF Adaptation Policy Framework (APF)
•
FINADAPT
•
Canadian Climate Change
•
Australian Government - National Climate Change Adaptation Programme
•
UK CIP + UK Defra Adaptation Policy Framework (APF)
• UK work considering objectives, targets, indicators
•
Most – scope impact, quantify risks, discuss decision making / action.
Major Policy Challenges (1)
• Uncertainty
– Long time-frames
– Different levels of certainty (projections, risks extremes, major events)
– Dis-aggregration (high resolution needed for cost-effective adaptation)
– Consideration of precautionary principle?
– Irreversible losses (ecosystems)
• Policy action and legislation (real adaptation)
– Carried out at regional / local level by public / private sector.
– Effective / appropriate adaptation “stakeholder-led”, rather than enforced
Major Policy Challenges (2)
• Allocating costs
– Who should pay? Can we implement the polluter pays?
• Cost-effective adaptation?
– Climate proofing all human activities ? extremely expensive
– Likely to see a focus on cost-effective and proportionate adaptation
– Considering impact-assessment and CBA?
– Only adapt where costs of adaptation are less than costs of climate change
• Avoiding Mal-adaptation
– Inefficient use of resources compared to other options
– Ineffective (scenarios that not appear)
– Displacing vulnerability from one actor to another
Major Policy Challenges (3)
• Option appraisal and cost analysis
– Historical focus on policy focusing on technological options (and costs)
– Adaptation needs to consider non-technical options more explicitly
– impact assessment frameworks do not easily assess NT options
• Economic, ethical and political issues
– How discount long-term impacts CC vs costs of adaptation options now
– How should adaptation consider equity and distributional benefits
– Should we focus adaptation on protecting those less able to adapt (vs
those with capital / resources)
– Within countries, across Europe, Europe vs. developing countries
Successful adaptation?
1. Prepare to adapt by building capacity
 Research
 Awareness
 Policies
 Monitoring
2. Alter existing plans to manage climate risks
and take advantage of new opportunities
 Urgent and high priority
 Win-win, Low cost
 Existing frameworks
 Disaster responses
3. Implement adaptation actions
 Cost-effective/Cost benefit analysis
 Additional criteria-existing frameworks
 Modify infrastructure
 Alter processes
In Detail

1.
Define the overall (European) policy aim

2.
Determine priority sectors for adaptation action
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3.
Characterise priority risks / opportunities (in each sector)
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3a. Identify potential adaptation options
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3b. Appraise adaptation options
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4.
Propose adaptation objectives
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5.
Define adaptation targets and indicators
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6.
Link up policy framework at the EU, national and sectoral level
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7.
Implement
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8.
Monitor, Review and Revise
Conclusions

Adaptation
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Need to develop policy framework –


Address policy issues
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Research on costs and benefits

Cost-effective and proportionate
Mainstream adaptation policy in a conventional
decision-making and economic perspective

Tiered approach: prepare – plan - proceed