Transcript Renewable Energy in the Present and the Future CERN Geneva 23 October 2013 Consequences of fossil energy dependence • • The resources are not evenly distributed worldwide  Supply security risk  Interest.

Renewable
Energy in the
Present and the
Future
CERN Geneva
23 October 2013
Consequences of fossil energy
dependence
•
•
The resources are not evenly distributed worldwide

Supply security risk

Interest to replace imports with indigenous resources
Fossil fuels are costly and prices fluctuate

Some countries spend more than 10% of GDP on fossil fuel imports

IEA projects that fossil fuel prices will continue to rise

Global shale gas prospects outside US are unclear

Minigrid and offgrid solutions for electrification of remote communities – diesel
based power generation is very expensive
•
Significant local air pollution damages
•
The latest IPCC report stresses the risk of climate change

•
Burning of fossil fuels, especially coal, is a prime source of GHG emissions
Renewable energy and energy efficiency are widely accepted as sustainable solutions

UN SE4ALL initiative calls for a doubling of RE share and doubling of efficiency
gains by 2030

IRENA as hub for renewable energy
2
About IRENA
International Renewable Energy Agency
Established April 2011
Mission:
Accelerate deployment of renewable energy
Scope:
Hub, voice and source of objective information for
renewable energy
Members:
161 partner countries; 119 ratified members
(global scope)
Mandate:
Sustainable deployment of the six RE resources
(Biomass, Geothermal, Hydro, Ocean, Solar, Wind)
Structure:
Three programmatic divisions CSP, IITC, KPFC
Location:
Headquarters in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Innovation and Technology Centre IITC, Bonn, Germany
Director-General: Adnan Amin
3
International Renewable
Energy Agency: 119 Member
Countries and growing rapidly
Members of the Agency
Signatories/States in Accession
More than 160 partner
countries
4
RENEWABLE ENERGY
SITUATION AND
TRENDS
5
Globally 18% RE in Total Final Energy Consumption in 2010
Half is traditional biomass, 8.4% modern renewables
Source: Global Tracking Report,2013
Overall share of renewable energy has remained quite flat,
albeit some sources grew exponentially from a small base
Growth 1990-2010
by country
About half of the new electricity generation capacity
worldwide is based on renewable energy
The share has doubled in recent years
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Clean energy market size USD 269 bln/yr (investment)
Nearly double with inclusion of:
• Large hydro
• End-use sector equipment (heatpumps etc)
• Biofuel feedstock
Global capacity
additions 2011
41 GW Wind
30 GW Hydropower
30 GW Solar PV
Installed capacity
<1 GW Solar CSP
1100 GW hydro
5 GW Biomass
300 GW wind
100 GW solar PV
<1 GW Geothermal
70 GW biomass
15 GW geothermal
0%
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: IRENA
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Global capacity
additions 2012
45 GW Wind
29 GW Hydropower
31 GW Solar PV
<1 GW Solar CSP
5 GW Biomass
<1 GW Geothermal
2010
2011
9
LCOE ranges and averages
RE is cost effective today
in many cases
10
RENEWABLE ENERGY
PROJECTIONS
FOR 2030
11
What does it mean to
double the RE share?
(%)
RE share incl.
traditional biomass
30
 36
SE4ALL target
 30
9-15%
GAP
What does doubling mean?
20
 18
10
9
2010
Business as
usual
RE share without
traditional biomass
2020
2030
•
Today 18% renewables including 9%
modern renewables
•
Business-as-usual 2030: 21%
renewables
•
Target: 30-36% renewables
•
Gap: 9-15%
•
36% renewables – up to half of global
GHG reductions (CO2 and CH4)
TFEC = Total Final Energy Consumption
TFEC share covers direct use of renewable
energy plus energy and heat from
renewable sources
Global Tracking Framework – May
12 2013 12
REMAP 2030 - Scope
26 countries representing 75% of global energy demand by 2030
Represents 58% of world population in 2012, 56% in 2030
60% of global PPP in 2012
Country Dialogue is crucial and ongoing
Results are aggregated to produce a global cost curve
REMAP Countries:
AUSTRALIA
BRAZIL
CANADA
CHINA
DENMARK
ECUADOR
FRANCE
GEMANY
INDIA
INDONESIA
ITALY
JAPAN
MALAYSIA
MEXICO
MOROCCO
NIGERIA
RUSSIA
SAUDIA ARABIA
SOUTH AFRICA
SOUTH KOREA
TONGA
TURKEY
UNITED ARAB
EMIRATES
UNITED KINGDOM
UNITED STATES
UKRAINE
13
Methodology at a Glance
Reference FF/Nuclear
technologies
Fuel prices, taxes,
subsidies, capital cost
IRENA
Costing studies
External
effects
Substitution
cost
Learning curves/cost
reduction
assessments
REMAP
Options
Cost curves
IRENA technology
database
Sectoral/technology
studies
Country Reference
Scenarios
Potentials
14
The Reference Scenario
• Includes all policies in place or likely to be put in place in
the coming years
• Some countries have scenarios and objectives for 2030,
others not
• Supplemented by IEA WEO 2012 data
• Reference scenario includes efficiency gains
• No cost assessment of the reference scenario
• Planning framework comparison will be part of the analysis
15
30
20
10
0
Reference case
Renewable energy policy
Other energy policy
Early retirement
RE+/radical change
Modal shift
Electrification
Industry relocation
Energy efficiency
40
2010 level
RE share (%)
50
REMAP Options
60
Modern energy access
SE4ALL
Access and EE
REMAP
Breakthrough
technologies
How to double the RE share
Access and efficiency can help to double the share
Energy revolution
16
Impact of all REMAP options
Combined DRAFT
Total renewables
grow from:
•
20% (Ref. 2030)
•
29.3% (REMAP)
Modern renewables
grow from:
•
8.7% (2010)
•
14.9% (Ref. 2030)
•
27.3% (REMAP)
Traditional biomass
declines from 8% to
5% in Ref. 2030 to
2% in REMAP*
*assessment imprecise b/c large
amount of traditional biomass is
consumed outside of REMAP 25
countries
REMAP 25 Cost Curve
DRAFT
353 REMAP Options
Average Incremental cost of subtitution
(USD/GJTFEC)
TOTAL - REMAP 25 (N) REMAP Options
55
Weighted Average
Traditional biomass in
Growth of
Reference Scenario (to be
modern
Renewables replaced) - from 19.5 to 15 %
from 9 to 15%
35
15
Substitution Cost=
+1.37 USD/GJ TFEC
Additional RE
Consumption
-5
REMAP:
41 EJ/yr
REMAP Options – from 15 to 28%
-25
Total Annualized
-45
Substitution
Cost/year
-65
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
Share of renewable energy use in REMAP TFEC (Reference 2030
- REMAP 2030) (%)
28
57 Bln (USD 2010)
(<1% of 4 trillion total
annualized cost for
350 options)
REMAP Options Cost Curve
with Tech/Resource
Breakdown DRAFT
Average Incremental Cost of Substitution (USD 2010/GJ TFEC)
28
REMAP 25 Cost Supply Curve (international)
by RE resource (2010-2030)
Battery Electric Vehicles
Hydrogen Transport
Biomass (power)
Plug-in Hybrid
Solar CSP w/ Storage
Solar Thermal (Industry)
Biomas Gasification (industry)
Solar PV (rooftop)
Wind Onshore (early retirement)
Solar Thermal Heating/Cooling
Wind Offshore
Modern Biomass Cooking
Solar PV (utility)
Biomass Heat/CHP (industry)
Biomass Heat (buildings)
23
18
13
8
Average Weighted Cost of
Substitution (3.4 USD/GJ)
3
Solar PV
CSP
Solar Thermal
Geothermal
Biomass
Traditional
Biomass
Other
Biofuel
Biogas
Hydro (small)
Reference Case Developments
Hydro
Solar Water Heating
Bioethanol (1st Gen)
Wind Onshore
Bioethanol (2nd Gen)
Geothermal (power)
Biomass CHP (district heat)
Biodiesel
Hydro (large)
Heat Pumps (buildings)
Modal Shift to Tram
-2
-7
-12
9.
11.
13.
15.
17.
19.
21.
23.
Cumulative Renewable Energy Share in TFEC (%)
25.
Wind Onshore
Wind Offshore
Ocean
RE Mobility
27.
19
REMAP options - sectoral Power
sector represents only one third
of total potential DRAFT
How to double the global
RE share?
•
Up to a third RE is possible at approximately zero cost by 2030
•
However policies in place yield only 20% RE in 2030
 RE potential is not yet fully reflected in the policy plans and scenarios
•
Power sector accounts for around 40% of total potential
 The role of end use sectors is critical to meet the doubling objective
•
Sustainable biomass plays a key role, around 60% of total potential
 Residues, energy crops, more efficient use of resources
•
Electrification can increase RE deployment
 For example electric vehicles
•
Technology innovation can push the envelope
 More affordable technology
 Increase of the RE potential
(offshore wind, advanced biofuels, grid integration technology, etc)21
RE TECHNOLOGY
INNOVATION
22
Innovation matches new energy market
needs with technological solutions
Most innovation is gradual, not disruptive
Bio-refineries
Wave Energy Technology
Have
Floating Turbines
Fully
Integrated
Residential
Solar
Technologies
http://images.nrel.gov/
23
Innovation supports whole
technology life cycle
②
① Patenting/ Licensing
Technology
Push
Basic R&D
Applied R&D
③ RD&D cooperation
Demonstration
Standardization
Market
Development
④ Enabling technology deployment
< Setting enabling Innovation Policy Framework >
Source: IRENA (2012)
Commercial
Diffusion
Market
Pull
Standardization across
the technology life cycle
Technology standards
•
The Innovation
System
technologies
•
investment and uptake of
•Consumers
Basic Research
Research &
Development
Demon stration
Commer cialisation
technologies
Diffusion
•Research centres
•Business
Demand, market acceptance,
Demand
Market Pull
Supply
•Academia
Reliability and performance of
Product/ Technology Push
•
•Energy sector
Technical capacity on testing,
•Government
certification and reliability in
•Exports
developing countries
Innovation policy frameworks
Framework conditions: macro economic stability, education and skills development, innovative
business climate, IP protection etc.
Technology life cycle
Source: - Adapted from IEA - ETP 2008
25
Standardization – Benefits for
countries
•
714 international standards were identified
•
These are not widely know or deployed
•
International standards are lacking in some areas
•
Standards can
 Provide a detailed technical basis for laws and
regulations
 Support public and private tendering processes
 Provide insights regarding latest technology developments
and best practices
 Support technology markets based on sound quality and
health & safety (H&S) requirements
 Also energy management standards eg ISO 50 001
26
Patents for RET
 The role of patents in RET innovation still
needs to be better understood.
 Different views – Incentivize / Restrain
 Patents seen as an engine for innovation in
R&D intensive sectors. Further analysis is still
required for RET sector.
 Patenting in most renewable energy areas
has increased more than five-fold in the last
two decades – more than 200 000 patents in
place
IRENA’s Working Paper
 Few renewable energy patents have been
filed outside OECD countries and China
Patents can provide
additional information on
innovation trends
Source: WIPO (2011)
Cumulative patent families in desalination and renewable
energy
28
Key remarks on RE
Patents
RET patent information
can provide:
• Which countries and
innovators are active
• Which countries are
potential markets
• Trends of technology
developments
• International research and
co-operation as indicated
by co-invention
Source: WIPO (2011)
Governments, through
their patent offices, must
be stewards of patent
quality
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