Transcript Autonomous Vehicle Technology Where are we, Where are we going, How to get there Alain L Kornhauser, PhD, F.ITE Professor: Operations Research and Financial Engineering Faculty.

Autonomous Vehicle Technology
Where are we,
Where are we going,
How to get there
Alain L Kornhauser, PhD, F.ITE
Professor: Operations Research and Financial Engineering
Faculty Chair: Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE)
Princeton University
Presented @Unmanned Vehicle Caucus
“Autonomous Vehicle Technology: Briefing & Demonstration”
Wednesday, July 8th, 2015
2325 Rayburn House Office Building
Washington, DC
The Problem
• Safety!
• What has been happening?
– We’ve done a great job in Crash Mitigation
• Lives are saved, Injuries are less severe
• Cost to fix things after crashes has gone up
– Next great opportunity is Crash Avoidance
• Can Technology help?
• Where do we stand with Automation?
– Reliability?
Human versus Automation “Reliability” in Driving
Reliability
Perfection
Automation
Automation
Human
Human
Human
Human
Reliability
Automation
Automation
Time
Doesn’t work
yesterday
today
tomorrow
Present (2010) Economic & Societal Impact of Motor Vehicle Crashes
http://www.nhtsa.gov/About+NHTSA/Press+Releases/2014/NHTSA-study-shows-vehicle-crashes-have-$871-billion-impact-on-U.S.-economy,-society
Insurance : (Half of Economic Costs) ~$140B
Automation could cut that in half ~ $70B/year
Present Value {
Expected (
Loss Liability with the Technology –
Loss Liability w/o the Technology)}
>
Cost {Automated Collision Avoidance
Technology}
Casualty & Liability Expense in
$ millions
US Bus and Paratransit Data 2003-2013
Casualty & Liability Expense
Source: Federal Transit Administration
$580
$550
$520
$490
$460
$430
$400
Casualty and Liability Claims are a
Huge Drain on the Industry
• For the 10 year period 2004-2013, more than
$4.8 Billion was spent on casualty and
liability claims
• For many self-insured transit agencies these
expenses are direct “out-of-pocket”
• Large reserves for claims must be budgeted
• Claims experience is reflected in insurance
premiums
• There are gaps in data reporting
In the next five days the bus
transit industry will spend $6.8
million in casualty and liability
expenses
Federal Transit Administration
National Transit Database for 2013
• Commuter Bus (CB), Motor Bus (MB), Bus Rapid
Transit (RB), Demand Responsive (DR)
• 121 Fatalities
• 15,700 Injuries
• Casualty & Liability expenses paid =
• $499,872,628
• Average of $6,187 per bus
Costs of Bus Crashes – Industry Wide
Tangible -likely not reported as casualty and liability expense
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Accident investigation
Drug and alcohol testing
Emergency services response
Hearings and discipline
In-house legal services
In-house vehicle repair
Lost fare revenue
Overtime
Passenger and service delays
Sick time
Spare vehicles and replacements
Vehicle recovery
Costs of Bus Crashes – Industry Wide
Intangible
• Human loss and suffering
• Media attention
• Good will
There is proven technology that can
significantly reduce the number of
collisions, injuries, fatalities and
claims
My goal is to make this
technology available to the
transit bus industry
Recommendations
Where do we go from here?
• Nurture the environment that will follow
Moore’s Law and improve and make cheaper
automated technology
Proposal Title:
Application of Autonomous Collision Avoidance
Technology to Transit Buses to Reduce Claims,
Injuries and Fatalities
Submitted by
Princeton University
In association with:
American Public Transportation Association
Greater Cleveland Regional Transit Authority
Washington State Transit Insurance Pool
Jerome M. Lutin, PhD, LLC
Where do we go from here?
• Nurture the environment that will follow
Moore’s Law and improve and make cheaper
automated technology
• Support Congressman Lipinski’s legislative
initiative to create a Future Transportation
Research and Innovation for Prosperity (TRIP)
Act
Thank You
www.Soterea.com
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=yARbNYcjPQM