Transcript Working Group on Nowcasting Research Report Paul Joe WWRP JSC 21-24 Feb 2011 Geneva.

Working Group on Nowcasting
Research Report
Paul Joe
WWRP JSC 21-24 Feb 2011 Geneva
Outline
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CAS XV/Gaps
Committee
Symposia
Advancing the Science - FDP/RDP’s
Capacity Building
Related Projects
Specialty Meetings
New Initiatives
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Lake Victoria
South East Asia
INCA – CE
Regional Training Center for Nowcasting (Brazil)
Gaps and CAS XV Decisions
• “Advise, promote, advance, publish, convene, capacity build”
• Advancing the Science
– Expanding the accuracy, precision, predictability/blending, heuristic,
data assimilation and high resolution models
– Applications: Convective weather/initiation, multi-element, winter,
complex terrain, hydrology, aviation
– Observational science, measurement errors for nowcasting (in situ,
remote sensing – radar QC and QPE),
– Understanding (conceptual models; complex terrain, etc)
• Hydrology Links - MAP-D Phase (coupling) and INCA-CE FDP?
• Integrated Nowcasting: Satellite rainfall and nowcasting,
lightning nowcasting (particularly related to developing
countries),
• Forecast systems: decision making and system design in the
nowcast process; links to PWS and operations, system design,
seamless (links to aviation, hydrology, etc)
• OPERA Radar Data Exchange (Nowcasting Requirements)
• Technology and knowledge demonstration
Committee Membership
Ttom Keenan
Slobodan Nickovic
Steve Goodman
Alan Seed
Thomas Haiden
Jenny Sun
Ted Nakazawa
Marianne Koenig
Augusto Pereira
Jian Jie Wang
Peter Li
Paul Joe
Jim Wilson(a)
Convene Nowcasting Symposia
WSN05 Toulouse,
France, Meteo-France,
Stephane Senesi
WSN09 Environment Canada, Whistler, BC, George Isaac/Paul Joe
QPE/QPF 3,
Nanjing, China, Oct
2010, Brown/Lu
WSN12 Rio de Janiero, INPE/USP,
Augusto Pereira 20-24 August 2012
Promote, Advance, Capacity Build
FDP / RDP’s Initiatives
Sydney 2000 1999-2002
To demonstrate the capability of modern forecast systems and to
quantify the associated benefits in the delivery of very short term
weather forecasts
MAP D
2005-2008
Beijing 2008
2005-2009
Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) Demonstration
of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric
Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region entire
forecasting chain ranging from limited-area ensemble
forecasting, high-resolution atmospheric modelling (kmscale), hydrological modelling, and nowcasting to
decision making by the end users, i.e., an end-to-end
forecasting system
Implement advanced high impact weather and
precipitation nowcast systems providing an enhance
weather service for B08 with demonstration of impact
Capacity Building Workshop - early 2012
Initiative to drive journal publications.
2010 Nowcasting Initiatives
Shanghai World EXPO 2010
Nowcasting Service Demonstration Project
(WENS) 2008-2011
In the context of the multi-hazard early warning systems
(MHEWS), to demonstrate how nowcasting applications can
enhance short-range forecasts of high-impact weather using the
opportunity afforded by the World EXPO 2010
SNOW-V10
RDP 2009-2011
Focus is to improve our ability to produce short term or
Nowcasts (within 6h) of high impact winter weather over
complex terrain in association with the Vancouver 2010
Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games.
Sochi2014 RDP/FDP ?
WENS Capacity Building Nov 2011
SNOW-V10 Final Seminar 2012?
Warm start reduces the crossover point in blended systems!
B08: Too low to be
useful for “call to
action” decisions
Benjamin et al, WSN09
Predictability is a function of scale!
Alan Seed
Capacity Building Workshops
Sydney 2000
Australia
Palm Cove, 2006
Asia-Pacific Region
Brazilia, Brazil 2003
Pretoria, 2005
South African Weather Service
Other Related Projects
• Joint Nowcasting,
Applications and Service
(JONAS)
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CBS/PWS
WWRP co-chair
Test Beds
Service
WENS
Non-QC QC
• Commission of Instruments,
Methods and Observations
– Radar Quality Control and
Quantitative Precipitation
Estimation Inter-comparison
Project
– 14-15 April 2011, Exeter
– RQQI pronounced Rickey
Perfect Radar
Forecast Systems
Science, Process, Production and Service
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Forecasting Systems and End User Requirements-Definition of outputs and functionality
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nowcasting
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short-medium term
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hydrology
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advanced user needs and capacity building;
Requirements for Forecast Process and Decision Support for Forecasts and warnings
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Using Guidance and Observations, NWP, EPS Use, MOS Direct Model output
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Conceptual models
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Integration of Decision support in meteorological Process
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Visualisation
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Verification
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Training with emphasis on process use of applications and systems
Man Machine Mix Issues–
Optimising Role of human in forecast process and potential of NWP/Automation
Approaches to Forecast System development
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(manual, matrix, object grid etc)
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digital forecast databases, user interaction etc
Forecast Sub-Systems and Applications
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Automatic Text generation
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Graphical product
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Dissemination and communication techniques
Potential contributors to the meeting should be decided upon by CAS and CBS.
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principle agreement was obtained at the 8th WWRP SSC
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(2005) to conduct a technical forum of invited experts to
facilitate the development of a position paper on Forecasting
Systems.
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•Little
progress, priority and funding
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•How to progress this?
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JONAS Mission
CBS/PWS + WWRP
Increase the capacity of NMHS’s to deliver
reliable nowcasts to enable informed
decision-making in mitigating the effects
of high impact weather and weatherrelated disasters.
Links for legacy of WGNR
Specialty Meetings
Closing the Gap /Advancing the Science
• Mesoscale-Nowcasting Working Group Specialty Meeting
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Meeting approved
Boulder, Colorado
Dates 2011 TBD
Jenny Sun and Dale Barker
High Resolution, Spin up, Parameterizations, Data Assimilation
• 2nd Heuristic Nowcasting
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Meeting approved by WGNR
Montreal, Canada
Dates TBD 2012
Alan Seed and Isztar Zawadzki
Probabilistic/Ensemble Nowcasting
Blending
Phase and Intensity
Lake Victoria Project
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Executive Council approves recomendation to develop
research project
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Basin dynamics
Generation of HIW
How to save lives
Dr. Samwei Marigi/Dr. Dave Parsons
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Fisherman have no radios, dissemination an major issue -> cell
phones
Need for Conceptual Model
Data Sparse
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Option 1:
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Option 2
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Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP) in
implementation phase
Mobile Weather Alert (MWA) Pilot
Many more… (project overload)
Radar status unclear (Uganda, Tazania)
Severe weather Service Gaps
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Radar deployment to demonstrate benefits (forecast skill and
user benefits)
Related Projects
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SERVIR
Knowledge
Observation
Understanding (Nocturnal thunderstorms
Technology (Lake surface temperature; CASA, OTG)
Piggy back on SWFDP (later than sooner)
JONAS or WWRP (WGNR, WGMW, SERA) to fill
understanding gap first
Expert Team Visit required
Fisherman
-Deaths (5000 deaths/yr)
-Warning Service?
Lake Victoria Events
• In May 1996, a passenger ferry M.V. Bukoba capsized while on
its way to Mwanza in Tanzania killing around 800 people
• MV Kabelega sunk on 8th May 2005 and though no life was lost,
consumer produce in the tune of 800 tons was lost.
• Grounding of M.V. Thor at Ghana island on 24th March 2006
loaded with 300,000 litres of petroleum products
• Capsizement and sinking of M. V. Nyamageni on 21st April
2006
• In 22nd July 2010.Passenger boat capsized on Ugandan side of
the lake and 50 people are feared dead. Survivors tale of strong
waves that hit the vessel, shattering it into pieces.
• 200,000 fisherman and 5000 deaths per year
Samwei Marigi
Lightning due to thunderstorms in weak
forcing situations (Lake Breeze)
Daytime
Nocturnal
Albrecht, Goodman
Goodman
Mobile Weather Alert Project
Objective:
Utilise mobile phone
technology to develop a
sustainable warning service
that reduces the vulnerability
of communities in the Lake
Victoria Region to weather
hazards.
Mobile Weather Alert: Community weather information via mobile technology
Tom Butcher
Key Outcomes
(1)
Integrated
Observations
(2)
Severe Weather
Forecasting
(3)
Communication
via mobile phone
(4)
Stakeholder
Engagement
(5) Socio-economic benefits analysis
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Drawing upon Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project and other
initiatives, clearly defined processes for the delivery of pilot warnings and
forecasts established and implemented.
Q: Any existing “call to action” warning service?
Q: Knowledge of localize severe weather? Technology?
Radar?
Need to assess capabilities, service, knowledge, modes of
collaboration!
Mobile Weather Alert: Community weather information via mobile technology
Tom Butcher
Discussion
• WGNR providing support to the MWA
to demonstrate how/which satellite
products could be used (already
EUMETSAT training done)
• Need to assess situation on options
(Sat-Lightning demonstration;
Understanding field/forecast project).
• Piggyback and extend on SWFDP
and MWA projects; WWRP join next
science/planning meeting?
• Note – many projects in the area!
CASA:
Off The Grid
Radar (UPR)
“solar”
Low Cost
Low infrastructure
Low Maintenance ???
Sandra Cruz-Pol, UPR
Need feedback. KMD waiting for
WMO/WWRP response
South East Asia
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Contact by staff member of VHMS (HP Lam) to
conduct a FDP in Vietnam
Weather Radar Modernization
Email/Phone discussions
Finnish Met Institute is providing aid to Vietnam
SWFDP in formulation stage
Cairns, 2007
2010-2020
– NWG piggyback and fill gap of SWFDP (0-12)
– MWG piggyback and fill gap of SWFDP (6-12)
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Many unknowns
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culture gap,
technology gap
Service gap
knowledge gaps
JONAS Activity
Expert Team Visit
Existing
Proposed
> 100 Thunderstorm Days
> 100 days in all
regions of Vietnam
NCHMF – no tools for
nowcasting (TITAN/TIFS)
Need Severe Weather Systems
and Expertise
Suggestion for Next Steps
1. FMI did a good review and assess about current status of VHMS nowcasting system
2. FMI is going to do some training courses of radar using and interpreting in 2011
3. What should be done next?
• More training with real events of Vietnam after modernization project (when
radars, AWS, automatic raingauge and NWP products… are available)
• Improve nowcasting system in Vietnam from National to Regional
and even Provincial levels by setting up a easy-to-use system.
• Radar data sharing between neighbour countries.
CBS/PWS initiating a SWFDP in this area
Joint SWFDP/WWRP with Nowcasting component under
JONAS umbrella?
Need to assess the warning, knowledge, technology, etc
INCA -CE
Explore possibility to be WWRP FDP?
Yong Wang
Brazil: RTC-N/Test Bed
Average of 20 floods per year in Sao Paolo
800-1000 deaths
Serrana Jan 2011
Regional Training Centre - Nowcasting
• Request made several years ago (Augusto Pereira/USP)
• Envision an advance course/post basic training on
nowcasting - severe weather, urban, hydrology
• Housed at U of Sao Paolo
– Classrooms, radar facilities
– Target – South America
– Invite “S2K/B08” systems and experts
• Opportunity: FDP or Test Bed for nowcasting systems ??
– focus on urban, hydrology HIW
Detailed project concept and
implementation plan being
prepared.
Radar
Modernization
Support by Ministry of Science
and Technology. Interested in
FDP/Testbed in Rio de Janiero
and Sao Paolo. Pilot FDP
using CARDS. Visit Canada in
March.
RTC-N -> Nowcasting
(Verification, SERA) Test Bed
Feedback from JSC?
Discussion
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Forecast Systems Workshop
Lake Victoria
South East Asia
South America Regional Training Centre
– Nowcasting / FDP / Testbed
Nowcasts leads to a “call to action”
Met. Information
SRF(NWP)
>Outlook
Local Government
Stand by
Citizen
Keep in mind
1-2 days
before
Precip.
Intensity
VSRF
Nowcast
(Anal+NWP)
(Anal)
>caution
>warning
Ready to
take action
preparation
3-6 hours
before
Action for
disaster
prevention
evacuation
Cancel
warning
Action for
recovery
Back to normal
(recovery)
1 hour
before
Is the skill of our
disaster
forecast fulfilling
(Flood/Landslide) their needs?
Courtesy, Shingo Yamada JMA
Mandate of WG
WWRP Strategic Plan
•Advise
•Promote
Nowcasting
•Advance the
Science
•Publish and
Convene
•Capacity Build and
Technology
Transfer
Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System
Temperature Perturbation, Winds, 35 dBZ Echo Nowcast
Jenny Sun
Impact of Radar Data on NWP
HRRR reflectivity verification
Skill vs. forecast length
CSI
All HRRR forecasts
Radar
No Radar
30 dBZ reflectivity
on HRRR 3-km grid
Forecast
Length
Verification period
23 June – 25 Aug 2008 Weygandt et al
WSN09
WSN09 Evaluation of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): an hourly updated convection resolving model utilizing
radar reflectivity assimilation from the RUC/RR Steve Weygandt, Stan Benjamin, Tanya Smirnova, Curtis Alexander, Doug
Koch, John Brown, Kevin Brundage, Barry Schwartz, Ming Hu, Susan Sahm, Brian Jamison NOAA ESRL
Impact of Radar Data
on NWP
ECMWF 1d+4dVAR
12h Window T511 L60
20May-20 June 2005
Hourly RR 4 km NCEP grid
Rain-1d VAR, moisture increments vertically integrated
for pseudo TCWV-assim-with 4DVAR
New-CNTRL 4dVAR TCWV analyses
Well structured drying and moistening
Forecasts:
Clear improvement over NA first 3 days
Improvement over Europe days 7-8
Current Use of Radar in DA
Centre
NWP System
Resolution
(km)
Forecast
Length
Met
Office
UKV+3dVAR(3hr)
1.5
36hx4
Meteo
France
AROME+3dVAR(3
hr)
2.5
30hx4
JMA
Mesoscale Model
(MSM)+4dVAR
5
15hX4, 33hx4
NOAA/
NCEP
Rapid Refresh
+(RR)+3dVAR(1h)
3
18hx24
DWD
COSMO-DE+3dVAR
2.8
18hx8
Partial list of international research efforts into the use of radar data in
operational NWP systems
WMO
Proposed SWFDP – Eastern Africa
(status/progress)
 Project develop in progress
 Focus on:
 Strong winds
 Heavy precipitation
 Hazardous waves
(Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria)
 Users: general public, agriculture and fishery
communities
 Domains: (TBC)
 5E – 55E; 30N – 25S
(for monitoring, analyzing, predicting and verifying
the various severe weather events)
 31E – 36E; 2N – 4S
(for the Lake Victoria)
 Global Centres: ECMWF, UKMO, NOAA/NCEP
(NWP guidance material)
 Regional Centre: RSMC Nairobi, supported by
TMA, UKMO and DWD
 National Met. Centres: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda,
Burundi, Rwanda and Ethiopia
 Possible start-up 2011
Provides “outlook”
Peter Chen
SWFDP – improving forecasts and warnings
• Severe weather: heavy rain, strong winds
• Forecast range: up to day-5 (increased lead-time)
• Forecasting (GDPFS), warning services (PWS),
Agriculture (incl. Fishery-Lake Victoria, AgM)
• High-impact focus (flash-flooding, wind damage, dryspells)
• Forecast Verification
• Other developments (phased-in)
• Technological gaps:
– Tropical convection, rapid on-set, localized events
– Lack of forecasting tools in the very-short-range (< 12h)
– Little or no radar coverage, few real-time observations
Proposed SWFDP – Eastern Africa
Tailored forecasting products
for farmers and fishermen
(e.g. statistical downscaling)
AgM
Satellite Imagery
and Tools
General Public,
nearshore
vessels, Media
and Disaster
Management
PWS
(Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda,
Rwanda, Burundi, Ethiopia)
Dissemination of Weather
Information
WMO SP
GDPFS
Guidance
Products
MH-EWS
National Met Centres
LAM, Ver.
RSMC Nairobi
Flash Flood
Guidance
Global
NWP/EPS
DWD,
UKMO, TMA
(ECMWF, Met Office (UK), US
African Desk, DWD)
Global Centres
Understand the
weather dynamics
over the lake
AgM
Farmers and
fishermen
Navigation
and Rescue
Lightning Initiation: Conceptual Idea
What is the current LI forecast lead time?
Satellite Detection
Up to ~60 min
added lead time
for LI using GOES
12
Radar Detection
9
Lead time
increases with
slower growing
cumulus clouds
(i.e. low CAPE
environments)
6
3
Time
CI Forecast without satellite
30-45 min
CI Forecast with satellite
to 75 min
John Mecikalski/ UAH
LI Forecast?
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World Wide Lightning Location Network
(WWLLN)
Operated by U. Wash.
50 + sites worldwide
Potential for site in Kenya
Bob Holzworth
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SERVIR
Collaboration between NASA and USAID to enable
the use of earth observations and models for timely
decision making to benefit society
Training and Capacity Building
Flood Forecasting in Africa
Mapping Fires in Guatemala Mexico
A. Limaye/D. Irwin MSFC
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Data and Models
Online Maps
Visualizations
Decision Support
Training
Partnerships
SERVIR Hydrologic Modeling
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Spatially distributed hydrologic model CREST,
developed by University of Oklahoma
Based on Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model
Spatial resolution ~1km
Uses near real-time satellite rainfall estimates from
TRMM to produce soil moisture, evapotranspiration
and streamflow
SERVIR-east Africa makes real time model outputs
for a watershed in Lake Victoria basin
Nzoia River in the
Lake Victoria Basin
CREST model
A. Limaye/D. Irwin MSFC
Modeled Evapotranspiration
SERVIR Hydrologic Forecasting
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Work in underway to expand the spatial
extent of CREST runs to Kenya
Meteorological Department (KMD) domain
(~2000 x 2300 km)
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Spatial resolution: 1km
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KMD rainfall and temperature forecasts,
available hourly at 1/8 spatial resolution, to
provide boundary conditions.
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Forecasted soil moisture, evapotranspiration
and streamflow will enable KMD to issue
early flood warning, especially in the flood
prone watersheds in western Kenya.
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KMD intends to use the modeled fields to
initialize the next model run
A. Limaye/D. Irwin MSFC
WMO Donor Projects in Lake Victoria
Region
Preparedness to
Climate
Variability and
Change, Natural
Disaster
Prevention and
Mitigation, and
Enhanced Food
Security
Improving the technical and
scientific capabilities of the
NMHSs of the respective
countries to provide
weather/climate information,
products and services in
support of key economic
sectors
Ethiopia,
Kenya,
Mozambique,
Namibia,
South Africa,
Tanzania,
Zambia
Finland
Severe weather
forecasting
demonstration
project (Eastern
Africa)
Enhanced use of outputs of
Numerical Weather
Prediction Systems for
improved forecasts and
warnings of hazardous
weather conditions
Burundi,
Ethiopia,
Rwanda,
Kenya,
Tanzania,
Uganda
World
Bank,
WMO
WMO Donor Projects in Lake Victoria
Region
Climate
Observations
and Regional
Modelling
Support of
Climate Risk
Management
and
Sustainable
Development
The proposed programme is
intended to help the NMHS in
GHA countries assemble the
necessary climate observations
and to understand and use
regional climate modelling--that
can help GHA countries design
adaptation policies and reduce
climate-associated risks.
Burundi,
Djibouti,
Eritrea,
Ethiopia,
Kenya,
Rwanda,
Somalia,
Sudan,
Uganda,
Tanzania
World
Bank
Regional
Climate
Framework in
Eastern Africa
to support
adaptation to
climate change
Establishment of a Regional
Climate Information Framework
in Eastern Africa to support
adaptation to climate change
with the IGAD Climate Prediction
and Application Centre (ICPAC,
Nairobi, Kenya) is a key element.
Burundi,
Djibouti,
Eritrea,
Ethiopia,
Kenya,
Rwanda,
Somalia,
Sudan,
Uganda,
Tanzania
KOICA
Phase I
completed
Phase II
under
developm
ent
WMO Donor Projects in Lake Victoria
Region
PILOT - To utilise mobile
phone technology, including
infrastructure, services and
applications, to develop and
demonstrate a sustainable
warning service that reduces
the vulnerability to weather
hazards of communities in
the Lake Victoria Region.
Uganda,
Tanzania
Ericsson
WB
Norway?
Lake Victoria
Proposes to scale up Uganda
Environmental
Mobile Weather Alert Pilot
Management
including investment in Lake
Project (LVEMP II) Obs
Kenya,
Uganda,
Tanzania
Rwanda,
Burundi
World
Bank
Mobile Weather
Alert
Weather forecasts
and warnings via
mobile
communications
Proposes investment in
NMHS development in
Rwanda and Burundi
Nowcasting in Vietnam
• July 2010, Hanoi – Thunderstorm
and Heavy Rain
• Data:
– Satellite images (MTSAT, FY2):
about 15 minutes/image
– 3 reflectivity radars: Việt Trì, Phủ
Liễn, Nội Bài
– synoptic observations (every 3
hours or telephone (if required))
– 15 automatic rain-gauges (since
Oct 2010)
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Information Transmission to Public:
– NCHMF Website
– Radio channel (Voice of Vietnam –
VOV) (live interview)
First Challenge in 2010
1000 years Anniversary of Hanoi Capital
(01st – 10th October, 2010)
NCHMF and AMO coordinate implementation
Details:
- 15 automatic raingauges and 02 temporary AWSs in Ba Đình and Mỹ
Đình areas
- Test period: 20th Sep – 30th Sep, 2010
- In normal conditions:
- Warning issued every 6 hours
- Information sent directly to Local Organization Committee via
email and fax
- In thunderstorm / heavy rain conditions:
- Warning issued every 0.5 - 1hours
- Information was published on NCHMF website and VOV radio
channel also
Need Nowcasting tools to aid the forecaster.
Related Projects
1. VHMS and FMI project (PROMOSERV) on:
• Maintenance and calibration of automatic weather
stations,
• use of radars,
• and career development of personnel
2. VHMS and KMA project on:
• Forecaster’s Analysis System (FAS) for Vietnam
• Typhoon join-Research in which KMA support
Vietnam TAPS-2 (Typhoon Analysis and Prediction
System)
3. 2010 – 2012 Modernization project of VHMS
4. WWRP FDP ??? – culture change!!!
First Idea of Nowcasting Implementation
- Attending “Radar and Nowcasting Workshop” in Cairns, Australia, 1-4 Aug
2007 hosted by BoM and Gematronik
-Working with Mr. Tom Yoshida, retired Meteorologist in charge of Guam
Meteorology Department in 02 radar interpretation training workshop in
Hanoi (2005 and 2008)
- Nowcast experiment in 2010
- 2010 – 2012 Modernization Project of HMS on:
- Observation network
- automatic stations (focus on Hanoi area)
- 4 – 5 doppler radars (new and upgrade)
- Telecommunication system
- Data processing and archive system
- Regional/ city NWP models
- Forecasting Technology
-…
 Hopefully, all data will be available for operational system!
NCHMF need a tool for nowcasting!
 I suggested VHMS to use TITAN and/or TIFS
Current operational nowcasting programs
only focus on summer convection!
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U.S. ~1952
Canada ~1980
Australia ~1990
China ~2003
Romania ~2003
Germany 2005
Japan 2008