Transcript Splitting the Ticket Truman presented a proposal to the Congress earlier in the election year, which would guarantee the rights of blacks, which created.

Splitting the Ticket
Truman presented a proposal to the
Congress earlier in the election year, which
would guarantee the rights of blacks, which
created the rift in the Democratic Party.
 During the Democratic Convention, a total
of 35 delegates (all of Mississippi and half
of Alabama) walked out.
 The Democratic Party ticket was split, and
out emerged the States Rights Democratic
Party and the Progressive Party

The Split of the Democratic Party

“In 1948, the Democrats and Republicans
only received only 92% of the electoral
votes. This situation was due to a bolt form
the Democratic National Convention of
delegates form several southern states
who protested the strong civil rights plank
in the Democratic platform. These
delegates formed a States’ Rights or
“Dixiecrat” party which received the 38
electoral votes of Alabama, Louisiana,
Mississippi, South Carolina, and one vote
from Tennessee,” (Porter & Johnson, 419).
Fractionalization of the Party
Widely believed that the fractionalization of
the Democratic Party would essentially
cause Democrats to concede the race to
the Republicans.
 Yet the Dixiecrat revolt actually helped
solidify for Truman the northern urban,
African American coalition, it allowed him to
duck the old claim by liberals and African
American leaders that the Democratic party
was led by Southern racists.

 The split gave Truman the appearance of
holding the party’s center
The Progressive Party
World Peace Party
 Found fault in the presidential
administration of the Truman presidency.

 Held the Truman administration primarily
responsible for the Cold War and organized
the Progressive Citizens of America in 1947

The delegates, composed of pacifists,
reformers, New Dealers, and a few
American Stalinists) selected Henry
Wallace to run for President
The Progressive Platform

The party platform
rejected the Marshall
Plan for European
economic recovery
and the Truman
Doctrine of
containment and
urged negotiations
with Russia to end the
Cold War
 Yet it is a well known
fact that the American
voter does not vote on
foreign policy and
issues
Henry Wallace

Many American liberals believed that Truman had
turned his back on the New Deal, the Roosevelt
legacy, and the New Dealers themselves.
 As Roosevelt’s Secretary of Agriculture from 1933-1940,
Wallace was considered one of the primary innovators of
the New Deal programs. He was even chosen as the Vice
president in 1940, but was dropped during the 1940
campaign in favor of the less controversial Truman.

During the summer of 1947, Wallace was very
prominent, and seemed to be a serious candidate for
the presidency.
 Received support from Labor groups, middle class
liberals, farmers, northern African Americans, and
communists (who eventually became the his most visible
supporters, and led to a decline in support from other
sectors of his supporters, especially labor).
Dixiecrats

The States Rights Democratic Party
disagreement with the Democratic Party
mostly stemmed from civil rights
disagreements.
 Did not want a civil rights supporter to be elected


Nominated South Carolina governor J. Strom
Thurmond
Hoped that there would be a big enough split
to cause the election to be thrown into the
House of Representatives and that the vote of
the South would swing the balloting to an
opponent of civil rights legislation.
Strom Thurmond
Candidacy based upon
a split from the
Democratic party in
regards to opposition to
federal intervention in
regards to segregation
legislation and
practices.
 Fully believed and
supported the southern
segregation laws, which
disenfranchised many
blacks and poor whites.

The Republican Party


During the Republican
Convention held in Philadelphia,
voters of the Republican party
selected New York Governor
Thomas E. Dewey
 Many Republicans actually
wanted Dwight Eisenhower to
carry the Republican ticket,
but his political affiliation was
not known at the time, and he
refused the nomination (some
believe his refusal was a sign
a loyalty to his friend Truman).
The party platform contained
many of Republican party leader
Senator Robert Taft objectives .
 Included support of public
housing, need for public
health, farm programs, and
conservation of natural
resources.
Truman’s Campaign Strategy

Also worked to build a support coalition
that would include organized labor,
moderate liberals, and northern urban
African Americans
 The campaign strategy was to aggressively
satisfy each of these groups, that by granting
specific concessions they would earn their votes
 Sought to move to the left and focus on building
a coalition of groups that centered on organized
labor and northern African Americans
Changing the Method of Attack

Instead of aiming his campaign attack at
the defected members of the Democratic
Party or his Republican opponent, Dewey,
Truman went after the 80th Congress
 With the country currently in the mist of a labor
strife, a rise in the cost of living and taxes during
the Cold War
 Truman called Congress back for an early
session before the election in an effort to fix
some of the economic problems.
○ Called on Congress to increase the minimum
wage, broaden the Social Security system, and
establish a national health care system.
Polling During the 1948 Election


Gallop poll early in 1948 reported that the
approval rating for the job Truman had done
as a president was at 36%
The Gallup, Roper, and Crossley polls all
predicted that Dewey would defeat Truman by
a significant margin, but in fact, just the
opposite happened.
 The Crossley, Gallup, and Roper organizations all
used quota sampling. Each interviewer was
assigned a specified number of subjects to interview.
Moreover, the interviewer was required to interview
specified numbers of subjects in various categories,
based on residential area, sex, age, race, economic
status, and other variables.
Polling During the 1948 Election
Candidate
Crossley
Gallup
Roper
Election
Results
Truman
45
44
38
50
Dewey
50
50
53
45
Others
5
6
9
5


The Chicago Tribune felt so confident in the polls that the night of the
election, the paper went ahead and printed the following morning's
edition with a banner headline that Dewey had defeated Truman.
What went wrong? Outside of the quota constraints, each interviewer
was free to pick his subjects any way that he pleased. It is now
generally accepted that this freedom of choice created selection bias
in favor of Dewey. At the time, evidently, republicans were slightly
easier to find and interview than democrats.

Also stopped polling a week prior to the election, essentially missing the
American voters shift away from the third parties back to the major parties.
The Progressive
Landscape
From New York, Wallace
received 8.25% of the popular
vote
-California, 4.73%
-North Dakota, 3.80%
-Washington, 3.50%
-Montana, 3.26%
1948 Presidential Election
Results
Presidential election results map. Blue denotes states won by Truman/Barkley; Red notes those won by
Dewey/Warren; Orange denotes those won by Thurmond/Wright (including a faithless elector in Tennessee). Numbers
indicate the number of electoral votes allotted to each state.
Applying the 13 Keys to the White
House to the 1948 Election

1. Party Mandate
FALSE
 During the 1946 elections, the voting of the American
people indicated a shift back to the right, more
conservative policies.

2. Contest
FALSE
 Within the Democratic Party there was contestation from
both sides of the party, from the left (Progressives) and
the right (Dixiecrats)

3.Incumbency
TRUE
 The incumbent, Truman, was the sitting president

4.Third Party
FALSE
 There was a strong third party vying for votes, the States
Rights Democratic Party earned 2.41% of the popular vote
and 39 electoral votes.

5. Sort Term Economy TRUE


6.Long term economy FALSE


The recession of 1948-1949
started in November of 1948,
and the economy was actually
experiencing a post war boom
Post World War II, Truman was
the first president tasked with
transitioning the nation into a
peacetime economy, so during
his first term there was a
negative growth.
7. Policy Change

FALSE
The Marshall Plan was a foreign
policy and the Executive Order
9981, which abolished
segregation in the military could
be seen as only as small part of
the greater civil rights package
that he presented in 1948, but
was not really considered until
later in his second term.
Allan’s 13 Keys Continued

8. Social Unrest
TRUE
 There is no sustained social unrest during the
term

9. Scandal
TRUE
 The incumbent administration is untainted by
major scandal

10. Foreign/ military failure
TRUE
 Although he did struggle through the Korean
War, his was overconfident in the ability of the
military to quickly achieve military in Korea
Allan’s 13 Keys



11. Foreign/ military success
TRUE
 Truman successfully led the United States out of
World War II.
12.Incumbent charisma
TRUE
 On the campaign trail one of the biggest noted
difference between Dewey and Truman, was
their charismatic qualities. Truman came off as
much more relatable to the people when he took
his cross country campaign tour.
13. Challenger charisma
TRUE
 As noted above, Dewey’s personality was much
more reserved and constrained.
Milestones Achieved During the
Election
The Republican Convention was the first
convention to be televised
 The failure among pollsters, most
notably Gallop, Roper, and Crossley, to
predict the winner caused a reform in
polling techniques.

The Results of the 1948 Election

One of the biggest reasons
the Republican party is
believed to have lost the
1948 election was due to
overconfidence.
 Their acceptance of the
1946 midterm elections
in which Republicans
won dominantly in
addition to Dewey’ s
conservative campaign
strategy which was
premised on avoidance
of mistakes.

Truman’s ability to build
support among a broad
urban-liberal-black-labor
coalition aided his victory.
Truman’s Victory