Transcript AFRICAN COMMISSION ON AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS 21st Session, Accra (Ghana), 28 – 31 October 2009 Global Strategy for the Improvement of Agricultural Statistics Pietro Gennari Director, Statistics.

AFRICAN COMMISSION ON AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS
21st Session, Accra (Ghana), 28 – 31 October 2009
Global Strategy
for the Improvement of
Agricultural Statistics
Pietro Gennari
Director, Statistics Division
Overview of the presentation
 What is the global strategy?
 Why do we need a global strategy?
 Key components of the strategy
 Governance to meet strategic goals
 Worldwide consultation on the Strategy
 Capacity building and the way forward
What is the global the Global Strategy?
 An initiative of the United Nations Statistical Commission
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(UNSC) = apex entity of the global statistical system;
Partnership between International Agencies, developed and
developing countries
2 intergovernmental process for its adoption:
 UNSC and National Statistical Offices
 FAO Governing Bodies and Ministries of Agriculture
Long-term plan to respond to the statistical needs of the 21st
century (a living document)
Feasible and sustainable for developing countries
Basis for a renewed initiative of capacity building in agricultural
statistics: mobilization of resources
Decisions of the 40th UN Statistical Commission
 A global strategy is needed to meet the increasing demand for
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information at both the international and country levels;
Agricultural and rural statistics are essential for policymaking
and Agricultural Ministries have an important role to play in the
compilation of agricultural statistics;
FAO should lead the development of the global strategy,
involving the Ministries of Agriculture through its governing
bodies;
A Friends of the Chair group (FoC) is established to steer the
process, with FAO and the United Nations Statistics Division
serving as secretariat;
Friends of the Chair group to report back on the progress made
to the UNSC at its 41st session.
Actions taken by FAO
 Facilitating the creation of the Friends of the Chair group of the
UN Statistical Commission
 Working with partners to prepare the background document
 Organizing a series of meetings in which the new global strategy
on Agricultural Statistics will be reviewed
Members of the FoC Group of the UNSC
 Brazil (chair)
 FAO (secretariat)
 Australia
 UNSD (secretariat)
 China
 EUROSTAT (observer)
 Cuba
 World Bank (observer)
 Ethiopia
 Italy
 Morocco
 Philippines
 Russian Federation
 Trinidad and Tobago
 Uganda
 USA
Preparation of the background document
 ESS working closely with other international development
partners (World Bank, African Development Bank, EUROSTAT,
PARIS21, UN Statistics Division, US Dept of Agriculture)
 ESS coordinating input from all FAO Departments with
substantial statistical work
 A draft of the Global Strategy was discussed at a Satellite
Meeting of the ISI, Maputo, 13-14 August 2009
Detailed review and validation of the Strategy by more than 100
Senior experts from all regions
 A more strategic document explaining the process followed and
the steps ahead of us is available for this meeting and will be
discussed at the FAO Conference, 18-23 Nov. 2009
Meetings to discuss the strategy
 Seminar with FAO Permanent Representatives, Rome, 22 June
2009
 Satellite Meeting of the ISI, Maputo 13-14 August 2009
 FAO Regional Consultations (Bangkok, Accra, Rio de Janeiro)
 PARIS21 Consortium Meeting, Dakar, 16-18 November 2009
 The FAO Conference, Rome, 18-23 November 2009
 UN Statistical Commission, February 2010, for final endorsement
 Implementation plan of the Global Strategy will be prepared in
2010
Why do we need a global strategy?
 Basic data requirements are not met, especially in devel.
countries
countries’ capacity in agricultural statistics declined since early ’80s
 declining resources allocated to agricultural statistics by countries
and development partners (low priority)
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 Emerging data needs (impact of agr. on environment; investment
in agr.; biofuels; water and land use, etc.)
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Need of a new conceptual framework
 Agricultural statistics not integrated in the National Statistical
System
Lack of coordination between NSO & Min. of Agriculture
 National Statistical Plan do not cover agricultural stat.
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 Lack of sound basis for agricultural development and food
security policy formulation, implementation, monitoring and
evaluation
Response rates low & declining
--Percentage Response to FAO by region-Machinery
Land use
Production
Region
Europe
Asia & Pacific
Americas
Africa
Near East
66
63
38
71
32
17
64
33
28
34
13
37
13
37
Current status of agricultural statistics
 Declining number of countries reporting basic
production
 Loss of statistical capacity
 Agriculture left out of National Strategies for
Development of Statistics
 Duplicative efforts-conflicting numbers
 Forestry, fisheries outside national and agricultural
systems
Statistics current status
The Dilemma – who does what?
 National Statistics Offices
 Ministry – Departments of
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Agriculture
Land Management/Natural
Resources Agencies
Marketing Boards/ Commissions
Health, education agencies
Development efforts by donors,
WB
Each Collects
data for own use
with results that
do not always
agree – and limited
ability to
share data
Assessment of Agricultural Statistics
 The assessment remains to be completed
 Need for a standard assessment framework
similar to the one used for the national statistical
system
 The scope of capacity building initiatives will
depend on the assessment of the statistical
system to meet the requirements of the global
strategy
Key components of the Global Strategy
Data requirements and
Conceptual Framework
Menu of indicators
Minimum set of
“core-national”
Data items
Integrated
Data Base
Integrate
Agriculture into
National statistics
System
Integrated Survey
Framework
Methodology to
Integrate
Agriculture
Master
Sample
Frame
Governance and Statistical Capacity Building
Conceptual Framework
Natural
Environment,
Outcomes and
Results
(National income,
(climate, soil, water)
Institutional
Framework
(Markets, government
Global economy)
Food security)
The production process
(growing crops, raising livestock,
Fish capture, timber removals)
Output and
Utilization
Food, feed, seed,
Fiber, Etc.
Inputs to
Production
(labor, capital, land,
Feed, seed, Etc.)
Socio-economic,
Political
(Households, holdings’
enterprises
Conceptual Framework
 Based on good understanding of the user requirements
 Provides a ‘roadmap’ for the development of Agr.
statistics. Not methodological guidance nor stipulate
what should be produced by countries
 Facilitates the integration, and therefore the
comparability, of statistics
 Components: Scope, Data elements, Organization,
Coverage, Units and Classifications
Conceptual Framework: Components
 Scope: should cover not only economic but also social and
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environmental dimensions;
Data Items: linking items from different dimensions
Organization: SNA for the economic statistics; SEEA for
environmental statistics; Social statistics? SAM? Wye Handbook?
Coverage: all activities within the scope of agricultural statistics
without any cut-offs on the basis of size, importance, location
etc.
Units: economic statistics = farm business; social statistics =
household; environmental statistics = land parcel.
Classifications: ISIC = agricultural activities; CPC = agricultural
commodities; ISCO = agricultural occupations; Classifications of
land + forest cover and land use
Menu of Data Items
 Meets basic and emerging requirements:
Metadata to estimate each indicator, sources,
 Technical notes/ classifications, etc
 More than any one country can do annually
 Shows where data are overlapping (crop production/
land/water use/ input use, etc.)
 Determine a minimum subset of core all countries agree to
provide annually
 Evaluate national needs to select additional items, determine
frequency
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Choice of Core Data Items for International
Reporting
 About 15 major commodities account for over 95 percent
of world production
 Production, prices, trade,--balances
 Value added, food security, productivity
 Land, water use
 Plus Forestry, aquaculture & fishery
 Major economic variables
 Labor, household income, agricultural income inputs,
demographics, consumption
Additional Items for National Statistical
System
 Factors to determine inclusion of additional crops
and livestock items. Ranking of items by:
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Percent of land/water use
Percent value of production
Percent of HH/enterprises producing
Distributions by size
Scale—affect on environment, climate
Permanent or temporary
Developing Master Sampling Frame
Census of
Population
And Housing
Area
Frame/ classified
By land use via
Remote sensing
Geo
reference
Rural HH
Primary Sampling
Units
Villages/clusters
Farm HH
Ag
Census
Non
Household
Enterprises
Census
Enumeration
areas
Master Sampling Frame
Sample
Grids
points
Integrated Data collection & Survey
Framework
Annual Survey(s) core & National
Household holdings & enterprises
SemiAnnual
Quarterly
Periodic surveys,
(2-5 year cycles)
Monthly
Supply and utilization, income, &
Environmental accounts,
Food Balances, etc.
Administrative
Data
Remote
Sensing
Agri
businesses
Windshield
Surveys
Integrated
Data Bases
Community
Surveys
Integrated data bases
 Data Warehouse of Official Macro Statistics
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Harmonized definitions and classifications
Each item appear one time; i.e. one official number
for everything from population, GDP, to maize
forecast or production.
 Micro data—long term view
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Connect across surveys & over time
Increase analytical capabilities
The governance challenge
 How coordinate efforts of Ministries of Agriculture,
National Statistical Offices, and others?
 Who does what—Master sample frame, Integrated Survey
Frame work, Integrated data base?
 Starting point—form a Statistical Council
 Build off strengths of each stakeholder
 Technical expertise
 Subject matter knowledge
The governance challenge
 Role of national organizations
Add agriculture (forestry and fisheries) to National
Strategies for Development of Statistics
 Focus fund raising on national statistical system
 Role of international organizations
 Focus capacity building and support for statistics on
overall national statistical system
 Centers of excellence-statistics (e.g. remote sensing)
 Role of Donors
 Work with Statistical Council instead of separate
sectors
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Capacity Building Challenge
 Building the basic statistical infrastructure
(frames; master samples; etc.)
 Education and training on statistical methodology,
technology (GPS), remote sensing
 Data analysis—how to use the data to answer
policy questions?
 Build a sustainable system
Areas needing further research
 Crop yield forecasts and estimates
Multi-cropping
 Root crops
 Use of remote sensing with ground truth
Sampling and survey methodology for integrated survey
framework
Use of remote sensing to monitor land use-early warning
capabilities
Geo referencing survey data with satellite digitized frame
Multi-purpose statistical framework about the
interrelationships between the economy, environment and
society for agriculture and rural development
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Worldwide Consultation on the Strategy
 National input—Min of AG, National Statistical Offices & other
stakeholders
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Review and update National Strategies for Development of
Statistics
 International input from stakeholders
 ISI Satellite meeting on agricultural statistics
 Global written consultation
 4 Task Teams of the FOC to revise key parts of the document:
conceptual framework; menu of indicators; integrated survey
framework; assessment framework
 Develop final strategy for 2010 UNSC
 Develop Implementation Plan
Thank you for your attention!