Transcript World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO WMO Environmental Emergency Response WMO support to nuclear emergency from the Fukushima Daiichi NPP.

World Meteorological Organization
Working together in weather, climate and water
WMO
WMO Environmental Emergency Response
WMO support to nuclear emergency from
the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident, following the
Earthquake (M9.0) and Tsunami (14+m)
11 March 2011
Geoff Love and Peter Chen
Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Department
WMO Secretariat
13 July 2011
www.wmo.int
Lessons from responding to the
accident at the Fukushima Daiichi
Nuclear Power Stations
Adapted from presentation by Dr Geoffrey Love
Director, Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services
Delivered to IAEA Ministerial Conference keynote address on
Emergency Preparedness and Response
Vienna, 20 – 24 June 2011
WMO
1979 - TMI
1986 - Chernobyl
2011 - Fukushima Daiichi
Relevant roles of National
Meteorological Services (NMSs)
WMO EER Activities:
Nuclear accidents and radiological emergency
response
• Numerical simulation of atmospheric transport and
dispersion - modelling technology to support
environmental emergency response;
• Dependent on, integrated with operational
Numerical Weather Prediction system
infrastructure at global and regional centres;
• 24/7/365 operational commitment of designated
regional specialized meteorological centres
(RSMC);
• Operational standards, procedures;
• Regular exercise and testing;
EER Operations
Obninsk, Russian Federation
Montreal, Canada
Exeter, UK
Washington DC, USA
•WMO’s 8 Regional Specialized
Beijing, China
Toulouse, France
Meteorological Centres (RSMCs) for
Atmospheric transport modelling
•RTH Offenbach – IAEA notification to
WMO via GTS
Tokyo, Japan
Melbourne, Australia
Concept of Operations:
IAEA - WMO Notification and WMO RSMC services
(IAEA EPR-JPLAN 2010)
EER System Performance
The Earthquake occurred at 05.46 UTC, Friday, 11th of
March 2011, and at 09.39 UTC the WMO EER System
was first requested to provide advice to designated
authorities on the likely evolution of the radioactive
cloud that was being accidentally released from the
Fukushima Daiichi power plant.
Within few hours the
first dispersion charts
were available, and
were produced
routinely until no
longer required.
Lesson #1
EER System worked well
The EER dispersion charts are based on
having:
• A well validated model
• Accurate winds to start with and high
quality wind forecasts to calculate
likely future cloud dispersion
• Good forecasts of rainfall through the
forecast period and realistic “washout”
processes in the model
• Realistic settling rates for the
radioactive material
• Realistic radioactive decay rates
Lesson #2
Default release when source
term/sequence is unknown
The Source Term (from instructions to EER Centres):
Default values to be used in response to a request for
products for the unspecified source parameters
•Uniform vertical distribution up to 500 m above the ground;
•Uniform emission rate during six hours;
•Starting date/time: date/time specified at ‘START OF
RELEASE’ on request form or, if not available, then the
‘Date/Time of Request’ specified at the top of the request form;
•Total pollutant release 1 Bq (Becquerel) over 6 hours;
•Type of radionuclide Cs-137.
Lesson #3
Understanding the source sequence
From the New York Times (18 April, 2011) – a publicly available view of
the time history of the source term (published 5 weeks after the
commencement of the nuclear emergency)
Total estimated release – officially published 13 April 2011
Lesson #4
Monitoring at the NPP for EPR
•Adequate, robust with failsafe,
monitoring systems should be
located around each nuclear
power station such that the source
term is known accurately and
quickly – why?
•Right to know
•Protective actions
•Regulatory requirements
•National vs Global/Regional
needs for accurate information
General Public
Transportation
Food and Agriculture
Lesson #5 Standard products are
pre-determined
Basic set of products
Five maps consisting of:
•Three-dimensional trajectories starting at
500, 1500 and 3000 m above the ground,
with particle locations at 6h intervals
(main synoptic hours up to the end of the
dispersion model forecast);
•Time-integrated air borne concentrations
in Bq.s m-3 within the layer 500 m above
the ground, for each of the three forecast
periods;
•Total deposition (wet + dry) in Bq m-2
from the release time to the end of the
dispersion model forecast.
A joint statement that will be
issued as soon as available (QA)
Lesson #6
Analyses and hindcasts are important
• Use analyzed wind fields not
forecast wind fields
• Use observed rainfall not
forecast rainfall
• Use a realistic, time dependent
source term/emission
sequence
• Validate using available
observations of fallout and
atmospheric concentrations at
available measuring sites
• Scale dependency
Lesson #7
Knowing where radioactive particles settle is important
Understanding the deposition
pattern, with detailed
meteorological data and analyses
•wind, dispersion
•rain and snowfall
Measured deposition Cs-134 &
137, 16-28 May 2011
by MEXT and US DOE (Japan
report, 16 June 2011)
Lesson #8
Public Information
The tools exist, in the public domain to reproduce
the EER products, albeit without the products that
result having sufficient “metadata” attached to
truly assess their utility.
The public demand for information is intense.
- and even if the metadata were there, could the
public make informed assessments and decisions?
The coordination of advice to governments is
difficult enough, under the pressure of an ongoing
emergency coordinating information to the publics
in a number of countries, across language barriers
is truly very difficult – but critical if governments
wish to maintain the confidence of their publics.
Lesson #9
Meteorology and Hydrology in Nuclear Safety
Siting of Nuclear Power Plants
•Standard procedures and guidelines
urgently need to be updated for assessing all
geophysical hazards, along with other
hazards, for existing and proposed nuclear
power stations;
•They should include adapting to climate
change among the many considerations;
•They must be multi-disciplinary in the
broadest sense.
The Way Forward
• Review all aspects of the WMO EER system
• Update the products to reflect current S&T capabilities
• Work with the power station industry and CTBTO to make
source term / source sequence data available as soon as
possible
• Work within the UN-System to find more efficient ways of
developing joint statements that inform all those potentially
affected by the disaster – embed these “ways” into operational
procedures and test them routinely
• Use the routine tests to bring together organizations (including
the media) and governments into cooperative alliances
A real emergency – not business as usual
UN Scientific Committee on Effects of Atomic Radiation
(UNSCEAR) - Study for Fukushima Daiichi accident
UNSCEAR: United Nations Scientific Committee on the
Effects of Atomic Radiation Secretariat Fukushima
assessment
UNSCEAR/58/7 (Attachment 3/Rev.2)
“UNSCEAR had the remit and would
be expected to produce a scientific
report to the General Assembly on the
levels and effects of radiation
exposure. Accordingly the Chair of
UNSCEAR requested the Secretary to
foster the development of a proposal
on this subject…………”
UNSCEAR
Data required as basis for the UNSCEAR report on the levels and effects of
radiation exposure as a consequence of the Fukushima accident
Source term:
− What is the amount and nature of radioactive material released to the
environment? How much to air? How much to sea?
− What radionuclides were released?
− What was the time profile?
− …………………………..
− …………………………..
•Meteorological data (numerical weather prediction data – i.e. three dimensional gridded spatial and temporal
information - validated/corrected with observations, for all of Japan) for the duration of the release and
subsequent air circulation time
•Precipitation data (locations, intensity, duration and type – rain, snow – of precipitation)
•Topography (no time dependency required)
•Data required for dispersion modelling in the sea
•Nuclide-specific activity concentration in air (for the duration of the release and subsequent air circulation time)
•Nuclide-specific deposition to the ground
•……………
Current Situation
•
•
•
•
Still a ‘General Emergency’ but stabilized
RSMCs on full alert and preparedness
UN System-wide study on implications
WMO to review nuclear EER procedures and
standards
• WMO to continue cooperating with IAEA on Nuclear
Safety standards and WMO technical guidance
• WMO (including CBS) to work with the UN Scientific
Committee on Effects of Atomic Radiation (Study for
Fukushima Daiichi accident)