Transcript Generation Adequacy Task Force Update to WMS January 13, 2013 Update on Recent GATF Activities • GATF Meeting of January 18, 2013: – ERCOT.

Generation Adequacy Task Force
Update to WMS
January 13, 2013
Update on Recent GATF Activities
• GATF Meeting of January 18, 2013:
– ERCOT Staff (Warren Lasher and Kevin Hanson)
reviewed the Loss of Load study results.
– The Loss of Load study summary presentation can be
found at the January 18th GATF meeting page.
– GATF (non-voting body) did come to consensus on
two items regarding the Loss of Load results
(discussed later).
•
Warren and Kevin are here today if there
are any questions concerning the Loss of
Load study.
Study Results – from ERCOT presentation at GATF
•
Study results are dependent on selection of probabilities for the 15 weather
years, as shown in the following graph:
Study Findings – from ERCOT presentation at
GATF
• Determination of the relationship between reserve
margin and likelihood of loss-of-load events is heavily
dependent on assumed likelihood of 2011 weather
conditions
• Using a 1-event-in-10-years loss-of-load criteria leads to
a target reserve margin of ~13.7 % to ~18.9% depending
on weather year assumptions
• Study results indicate an effective load carrying
capability of 14.2% for non-coastal wind resources, and
32.9% for coastal wind resources
GATF Discussion Concerning Study Results and
Consensus Items
• Discussion excerpts from GATF, but no action
taken.
– ERCOT staff believes the mean temperatures seem to be rising over
time.
– There was also discussion that the methodology used for wind
resources in the loss of load study (8760 hours) is different than the
way we handle it in the CDR (one hour peak).
• Consensus Items from GATF.
– ERCOT’s Loss of Load study results are reasonable.
– The green line should not be considered when determining the
reserve margin target (totally ignoring 2011 weather is not
reasonable).
Next Steps?
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Does WMS want to make a recommendation
concerning the loss of load study results?
GATF next steps could depend on what happens
at the March 14th workshop.
There will likely be several GATF meetings
between now and the May release of CDR, but
March 14th workshop may drive GATF agenda.
Any other questions, comments, suggestions from
WMS?