Transcript Estimated bilateral trade in services by industry (EBTSI) Methodology used to create a matrix of bilateral trade in services by industry for the OECD global I/O.

Estimated bilateral
trade in services by
industry (EBTSI)
Methodology used to create a
matrix of bilateral trade in
services by industry for the
OECD global I/O table
Constructing OECD MRIO tables
• What is needed:
A perfect matrix of bilateral trade flows
(goods and services) decomposed by industry
and by end-use
• Issues:
– Overlap between goods and services trade
statistics
– Missing data in the case of trade in services
– Lack of adequate methodology to assess trade in
intermediate services
– Correspondence between EBOPS and ISIC
classifications
Allocated versus non-allocated trade
in the OECD TISP database (2005)
100% = Exports reported for EBOPS 200 (total
trade in services) with world as partner
120%
100%
80%
Average = 69%
60%
40%
20%
Share of total trade accounted for when adding over
all partners and industries
USA
TUR
SWE
SVN
SVK
RUS
PRT
POL
NZL
NOR
NLD
MEX
LUX
KOR
JPN
ITA
ISR
IRL
HUN
HKG
GRC
GBR
FRA
FIN
EST
ESP
DNK
DEU
CZE
CHL
CAN
BEL
AUT
AUS
0%
Methodology
•
•
Step 1: bilateral matrix based on “hard” data
–
OECD TISP database
–
EUROSTAT database (for EU countries)
–
UN trade in services database (for non-OECD economies)
–
IMF (for world total and rest of the world)
Step 2: reconciliation of bilateral data
–
•
Exports preferred and then mirror imports
Step 3: Estimation of missing bilateral flows
–
Prediction of zero trade flows (missing versus zero) – Extensive margin
–
Estimation of bilateral trade flows – Intensive margin
•
Step 4: Industry decomposition based on national accounts
•
Step 5: Collection of bilateral by industry data (conversion to ISIC)
•
Step 6: Optimisation to estimate bilateral trade flows by industry
–
First set of constraints: total bilateral = total by industry for a given country
–
Second set of constraints: existing data for specific bilateral relationships
Data coverage
• Three years: 1995, 2000 and 2005 (panel
data for the estimation 1999-2009)
• 58 countries + “rest of the world”
• 15 services industries (ISIC Rev. 3)
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
Construction
Wholesale & retail trade; repairs
Hotels & restaurants
Transport and storage
Post & telecommunications
Finance & insurance
Real estate activities
Renting of machinery & equipment
Computer & related activities
Research & development
Other Business Activities
Public admin. & defence; compulsory social security
Education
Health & social work
Other community, social & personal services
Gravity model and estimation
• Structural gravity: Anderson and Yotov (2010)
• Estimation technique: quasi-maximum
likelihood Poisson
– To take into account zeros
– To address the “adding-up” issue in gravity estimation
(the fact that the sum of estimated trade flows exceeds
the total of observed trade flows)
Optimisation
Trade matrix normalised to
national accounts figures
Total bilateral
C1
C1
C2
C3
ROW
Total
81
30
8
119
Ind 1
C1
45
15
110
9
49
C1
C2
C3
ROW
Total
.
4
.
35
C2
50
C3
21
19
ROW
12
22
8
Total
83
122
83
32
320
Imports by industry
C1
C2
C3
ROW
Total
Ind1
58
64
30
17
169
Ind2
46
40
19
18
123
Ind3
15
6
0
7
28
Total
119
110
49
42
320
42
Exports by industry
C1
C2
C3
ROW
Total
Ind1
35
74
43
17
169
Ind2
37
40
35
11
123
Ind3
11
8
5
4
28
Total
83
122
83
32
320
Ind 2
C1
C2
C3
ROW
Total
C1
Ind3
C1
C2
C3
ROW
Total
C1
National accounts
Predicted zero
.
10
.
37
2
0
.
11
C2
C3
ROW
Total
.
.
.
.
.
.
58
64
30
17
169
.
.
74
C2
.
.
.
40
C2
.
0
.
8
.
43
C3
3
.
.
35
C3
.
.
.
5
17
ROW
.
.
.
11
ROW
.
.
0
4
Total
46
40
19
18
123
Total
15
6
0
7
28
Known figure
coming from
normalised trade
statistics (used as
lower bound)
Robustness checks
• Comparison between estimated and
observed data (in particular for industries
where EBOPS and ISIC categories are
similar).
• Full estimation (at the bilateral by
industry level) versus estimation +
optimisation
How can you help?
• We need more bilateral data broken down
by industry
– Some information on unallocated trade?
• Identify zeros (as opposed to missing or
confidential data)
• Data for 1995