Transcript United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Statistical Division How to Analyze the Impact of Migration on Individuals, Households, and Geographic Areas Jason Schachter, Statistician United Nations Economic.

United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Statistical Division
How to Analyze the Impact of
Migration on Individuals,
Households, and Geographic
Areas
Jason Schachter, Statistician
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Towards better Evidence on Migration and Development in
Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Capacity-building
Workshop on Migration Statistics
Almaty, Kazakhstan, 31 October, 2013
Why are migration statistics
needed?
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Better understand migration
processes/experiences
Monitor the conditions of migrants
Improve policy making and planning
• Immigration control and support,
diaspora, remittances, etc.
Inform public debate
Jason Schachter - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 2
What type of data should be
collected?

Policy-driven research questions
•
‘Size” of “migrant” population
•
“Characteristics” of migrants, e.g. for
specific groups (refugees, highly skilled
workers, characteristics of returnees,
labour force experiences, etc.)
•
“Impact” of migration on people and areas
(e.g. remittances and their development
potential)
Jason Schachter - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 3
Possible Positive Impact of Emigration
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Reduction of unemployment and stress on
public services and infrastructure in country of
origin
Increase of income and standard of living of outmigrants and non-migrant household members
(via remittances)
Increase of trade and transnational relations
through diaspora networks
Return migrants bring back skills and resources
acquired abroad
Jason Schachter - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 4
Possible Negative Impact
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Leaves behind an older population
(outmigration of the young, highly educated, and
economically active)
Outmigration of specific industries and
occupations (e.g. health care), and loss of
human capital (and wealth)
Depopulation, with an impact on future
development, employment opportunities, public
infrastructure, taxes, health care services,etc.
Jason Schachter - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 5
Possible Negative Impact, cont.
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Imbalanced regional development (rapid
urbanization, depopulation in rural areas,
etc.)
Dependency on remittances
Impact of remittances on the value of
local currency, and its effect on trade
November 7, 2015
Jason Schachter - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 6
Units of Analysis
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National/Regional/Community
• Socioeconomic and contextual data
Household
• All household members
• Living conditions
• Housing characteristics
• Remittances
Individual
• Migration history
• Personal characteristics (age, sex, education, etc.)
• Reason for move
• Economic activity (before and after move)
• Social networks
Jason Schachter - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 7
Dimensions of Analysis
Size
 Characteristics
 Impact
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Jason Schachter - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 8
Size
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Stock of international migrants
Size of diaspora
Number of in-migrants over last 12
months
Net migration rate
Amount of money sent to household from
outside the country
Jason Schachter - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 9
Characteristics

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Demographic (e.g. age, sex, race)
National origin/Nativity
Education
Marital status
Labour force activity/employment
status/income
Remitter/remittance recipient
Jason Schachter - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 10
Impact

More difficult to measure
“The action of one object coming forcibly
into contact with another”/“a marked effect
or influence”
• Can impact positively or negatively
• Data scarcer
•
November 7, 2015
Jason Schachter - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 11
Impact of Migration (some dimensions)

Economic
•
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Education
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Fertility, mortality, population growth/decline, etc.
Health
•
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Investment, attainment, quality, etc.
Demographic
•
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Income, poverty, economic growth, employment, etc.
Healthcare, disease prevalence, etc.
Social/Gender
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Female migrants’ opportunities, gender roles,
attitudes, family structure, cultural values, etc.
Jason Schachter - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 12
Can have an impact on (units
of analysis):
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Individuals
• Current and return migrants
Households/Families
Geographic Areas (local and national)
• Environment
November 7, 2015
Jason Schachter - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 13
How to Measure/Analyze
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Measurement of change since migration
•
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Comparison of an individual’s current
characteristic and characteristic just before
move
At either the individual or household level
•
Subjective (how was health before move/
how is health now)
• Objective (level of education, labour force
status, income levels)
November 7, 2015
Jason Schachter - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 14
Other Examples
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Household income with and without
remittances, changes in wages, benefits
of education, etc.
Acquisition of skills since migration
experience
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Jason Schachter - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 15
How to Measure/Analyze
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Characteristics of both migrants and
non-migrants (compare groups)
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Comparison of migrant vs. non-migrant
households
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Household income/expenditure
 Business ownership trends/entrepreneuriship
 Ability to save
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Jason Schachter - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 16
Health example
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Migration could potentially harm health
through exposure to poor nutrition, living
conditions, lack of access to social
services or exposure to new diseases.
Migration may provide migrants with
better living conditions and higher
incomes than those in their home
country, improving their health, increase
expenditure on health care, etc.
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Jason Schachter - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 17
Analysis for Geographic Areas
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Change in:
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Population growth/decline
• Aggregate characteristics (e.g. age
structure, poverty rates, labour force
composition,etc.)
• Other contextual variables
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Strain on local infrastructure
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Services, tax revenue, etc.
Rural vs. Urban
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Jason Schachter - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 18
Indirect Impacts of Migration
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Transfer of ideas
Potential behaviorial changes (e.g. increase
chance of migrating; field of education;
language acquisition)
Cultural changes
• Change attitudes towards gender roles.
November 7, 2015
Jason Schachter - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 19
Analysis of Differences
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Descriptive
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Measures of central tendencies (mean) and
variation (deviation from mean)
Inferential/Inductive
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Probability that observed differences
between groups are real

General Linear Model (T-Test, ANOVA,
Regression analysis, etc.)
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Jason Schachter - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 20
If differences between groups
are found causality issues to
be aware of
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Reverse Causality
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Self-Selection
•
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Migration does not cause increased income, but increased
income increases the possibility of migrating
Comparisons between migrants and non-migrants are not
valid, since migrants might be different from non-migrants
Multivariate analysis and other analytical techniques
can help control for these factors
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Jason Schachter - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 21
Policy Needs vs. Data
Availability
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Policy often needs rapid and definite answers and
solutions
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Policy makers should be committed to evidence-based
policy making
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Data not always available
Quality research takes time and does not always provide
definitive answers
Often use results selectively
Researchers need to be aware of policy contexts
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Need to present findings in easily accessible and
comprehensible formats
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Jason Schachter - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 22
Use of Indicators to measure
impact at National (and Global)
Level
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What is an indicator?
• Indices, way to measure something (size)
• Output (monitoring), outcome (evaluation), goals
Set benchmarks and targets
• Measure progress towards goals (performance)
Monitor trends over time
Quantitative vs. Qualitative (subjective)
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Qualitative can be used to measure change/impact (selfperception)
MDGs
• Sustainable Development Goals
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Jason Schachter - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 23
Post-2015 Development
Agenda Indicators (SDGs)
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Set Targets
•
Clear, consise, objectively measured
• Use easy to understand numerical scales
• Able to aggregate to represent global and
regional trends
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Used for Monitoring Progress
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Jason Schachter - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 24
Criteria for Indicators
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«Outcome» indicators focused on long-term results
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Measurable over time with data collected by countries
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Use official statistics/stay within their capacity
Inform policy
Clear and easy to communicate to public
Limited number
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Levels and trends over time
Should be within regular statistical output
Consistency over time
•
Use international standards
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Jason Schachter - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 25
Indicators for Post-2015
Agenda?
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How can impact of migration be measured
within these pillars?
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Social
Environment
Economic
What other indicators would be useful?
Should migration be included in SDGs?
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Data availability issues
Lack of harmonization
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Jason Schachter - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 26
IOM Indicators (broad categories) (2012)
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Economic and Assets
Demography
Education
Health
Gender
Wider Social
Governance and Rights
Environment
Other Transfers
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Jason Schachter - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 27