Transcript BPS-STATISTICS INDONESIA MONITORING SOCIAL DEVELOPMENTS IN INDONESIA INTERNATIONAL FORUM ON MONITORING NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT: ISSUES AND CHALLENGES, Beijing, People’s Republic of China, 27 to 29 September,

BPS-STATISTICS INDONESIA
MONITORING SOCIAL
DEVELOPMENTS IN INDONESIA
INTERNATIONAL FORUM ON MONITORING NATIONAL
DEVELOPMENT: ISSUES AND CHALLENGES,
Beijing, People’s Republic of China, 27 to 29 September, 2011
KECUK SUHARIYANTO
Director of Statistical Analysis and Development
BPS-STATISTICS INDONESIA
email: [email protected]
INDONESIA PROFILE
KEY STATISTICS
Administrative Area
33 provinces, 497 districts
Population 2010 (millions)
237,6
Population Growth Rate 2000-2010 (%)
1,49
Economic Growth Semester 1 2011 (%)
6,5
GDP per capita 2010 (US$)
3005
Unemployment Rate Feb 2011 (%)
6,80
Poverty Rate March 2011 (%)
12,49
Income Inequality (Gini Ratio) 2010
0,38
HDI (new method)
0,60 (ranked 108)
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY IN INDONESIA
STRATEGY TYPE OF DATA
PROGROWTH
PRO-JOB
GDP
PERIODICIT TIME LAG
Y
Quarterly
35 days
Business and Consumer
Confidence Indices (BCCI)
Quarterly
35 days
Inflation
Monthly
1st day of the
following month.
Foreign Trade (ExportImport)
Manufacturing Production
Index
Unemployment rate
Monthly
One month
Quarterly
30 days
Semester
Three months
UNEMPLOYMENT DATA:
Source of Data: National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas), conducted
every Feb and August, number of sampel 68,000 HH
Unemployment Rate and Development Target 2004-2014
MTDP: Medium Term Development Plan
PROBLEMS:
 Unemployment Rate: 6,80%
 66% work in informal sector
 49,5% elementary school
 30,7% under employed
Unemployment Rate 2010
Scatter Plot between RGDP and Unemplyment Rate (UR) by Districts 2010
RGDP per capita 2010
INDICATION:
 High RGDP, high UR
 High RGDP, low UR
 Low RGDP, high UR
 Low RGDP, low UR
POVERTY DATA
MACRO POVERTY DATA
(since 1976, released 1July)
MICRO POVERTY DATA
(2005, 2008, 2011)
1. Methodology:
1. Methodology:
 Concept: Basic Needs
 Qualitatitve Approach
Approach
(characteristics of poor
 Food Poverty Line (2100
hoouseholds)
kkal per cap per day) + Non
Food Pov Line
2. Data Source: National
Socioeconomic Survey
(Susenas), 68,000 HH
2. Data Source: Census
3. The data show ESTIMATION of 3. The data show number of
number and percentage of
targetting HOUSEHOLD
POOR PEOPLE (national,
(POOR + NEAR POOR) - by
province, districts)
name by address
MACRO POVERTY DATA:
Source of Data: National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas), conducted
every March, number of sampel 68,000 HH
Poverty Rate and Development Target 2004-2014
PROBLEMS:
 58% of the poor work in agriculture
 Poverty disparities across region
 Many households are clustered
 63% of the poor live in rural area
around poverty line
EXAMPLE OF POVERTY MAP
.. Many people easily move out from poverty and move in to
poverty (TRANSIENT POVERTY)
Year 2009
Year
2008
Poor
Near
Poor
Not
Poor
Total
Poor
46.71
20.28
33.01
100
Near
Poor
22.32
21.53
56.15
100
86.98
100
Not
7.65
5.37
Poor
Between 2008 and 2009:
53,29% poor people move
out from poverty. On the
other hand, 27,69% move in
to poverty.
MICRO POVERTY DATA: Source of Data: Census (2005, 2008, 2011)
2005 (PSE 05)
10
2008 (PPLS 2008)
Targetting Household
(HH)
000 HH
%
000 HH
%
Very Poor
3.894,3
20,4
2.989,9
17,1
Poor
8.237,0
43,1
6.828,8
39,1
NEAR POOR
6.969,6
36,5
7.665,3
43,8
TOTAL
19.100,9
100,0
17.484,0
100,0
Poverty
Alleviation
Program in
Indonesia
Poverty decreases but income inequality tends to
increase ....
Poor People (%)
Gini Ratio
TREND OF POVERTY AND GINI RATIO 2004-2011
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX (HDI) DATA:
•
•
Source of Data: National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas) and Regional GDP,
calculated annualy, districts level
The usage of HDI: one of the General Allocation Fund allocators
HDI Indonesia, 1996-2010
Life Expectancy By Province, 2009
SCATTER PLOT BETWEEN RGDP AND HDI BY DISTRICTS 2010
Human Development Index
II
I
III
IV
Regional GDP
PLANS AND PRIORITIES FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (1)
ISSUES
SOURCE OF
DATA/SURVEY
PREVIOUS
FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT
1. POVERTY
a.
Macro Data:
National
Socioeconomi
c Survey
(Susenas)
Before 2011: Annual
Survey, number of
sample 68,000 HH280,000 HH
 Start 2011:
quarterly (75,000
HH per quarter).
 Methodology
improvement
b.
Micro Data:
Poverty
Census
Methodology:
scoring, proxi means
test (PMT)
Methodology: Povtar
(Poverty Targetting)
→ Pop Census &
Susenas
Before 2011:
conducted every Feb
and August, number
of sample 68,000
HH
Start 2011: quarterly
(75,000 HH per
quarter)
2. UNEMNational Labor
PLOYMENT Force Survey
(Sakernas)
PLANS AND PRIORITIES FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (2)
ISSUES
SOURCE OF
DATA/NAME
OF SURVEY
PREVIOUS
FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT
3. HDI NEW
METHOD
National
Socioeconomic
Survey
(Susenas) &
GDP
Methodology: Old Method
(Life expectancy at birth,
Adult literacy rate, MYS,
Consumption per capita,
Arithmetic Mean)
Methodology: New
Method (Life
expectancy at birth,
Expected years of
schooling, MYS,
Consumption per
capita, Geometric
Mean)
4. SOCIAL
PROTECTIO
N INDEX
Socioeconomic
Survey
(Susenas)
 Social Insurance
Programs Included:
Pensions, health
insurance, insurance
claimed
 Social Assistance
Programs Included:
Unconditional cash
Pilot survey to include
more variables
CHALLANGES
1.
Poverty and HDI:
a. The results obtained from new methodology will not be comparable
with the previous results  need to do back-casting
b. The results using new method may change significantly compared to
the results obtained from current methodology. It may create long
debate  need to socialize intensively the new poverty and HDI
methods to data users.
2.
Social Protection Index:
a. The term of social protection is very broad. It is difficult to obtain the
data because there is no centralized source for the required
information. The information available from published reports is
limited.
b. Need socialization of the concept and definition of SP → all
stakeholders have to have the same perception of SP.
THANK YOU
Terima Kasih