Mgt. 458 Decision Making and Creativity Rex Mitchell Fall 2011 Some Questions What is decision making? What is a “good” decision? Distinction between decision making and problem.
Download ReportTranscript Mgt. 458 Decision Making and Creativity Rex Mitchell Fall 2011 Some Questions What is decision making? What is a “good” decision? Distinction between decision making and problem.
Mgt. 458 Decision Making and Creativity Rex Mitchell Fall 2011 Some Questions What is decision making? What is a “good” decision? Distinction between decision making and problem solving? Decision Making and Problem Solving Decision making: the process of arriving at an outcome that meets objectives (and does not cause more problems) Problem solving involves decisions, although not all decisions involve problems Creativity is important in decision making and problem solving Critical/strategic thinking is also important There is considerable transferability of decision making skills All of us can improve our creative decision making skills What is a “problem?” A problem is: A discrepancy between an existing and a desired state of affairs A puzzling situation that needs to be understood or explained Course Overview Decision making (broadly) Critical and strategic thinking Creativity Different Types of DM/PS Models Programmed -- non-programmed – e.g., policies & procedures vs. unique onetime situations Rational -- intuitive -- combinations – e.g., “Data” -- Deanna Troy -- Picard – Combinations have many advantages Basic Decision Making Model 1. Recognize a problem or dm situation 2. Frame the problem/decision (objectives, constraints, factors, priorities) 3. Generate alternatives 4. Evaluate & choose 5. Implement & evaluate results (iterate) 6. Stabilize & learn from Engage with the readings What seems important here, what do I like, agree with, find useful? Why? – Highlight, make margin notes How might I apply one or more concepts in my life – now and in the future? Are there things I disagree with and/or would modify or expand on? Why? How? Is important to create your own reading notes or concept map Basic Decision Making Process Basic Decision Making Model 1. Recognize a problem or dm situation 2. Frame the problem/decision (objectives, constraints, factors, priorities) 3. Generate alternatives 4. Evaluate & choose 5. Implement & evaluate results (iterate) 6. Stabilize & learn from A Decision Frame Creating a context for the decision Recognize the real problem, not just symptoms Objectives Constraints & other factors Priorities Framing Provides context for discussion, decision, or negotiations Selecting & emphasizing certain aspects Excluding or minimizing others Clarifying objectives and constraints Frames differ among individuals Can be used to distort and mislead Framing Examples The America I know and love is not one in which my parents or my baby with Down Syndrome will have to stand in front of Obama's 'death panel' so his bureaucrats can decide whether they are worthy of health care Over the time that President Obama has been in office, we have lost 2.5 million free enterprise system jobs, and, yet, 500,000 federal government jobs have been added. Social Security and its attendant Medicare are broken and bankrupt systems because we, as voting citizens, have allowed congress to transform these systems from insurance programs to entitlement programs Defunding ObamaCare is essential to the economic survival of the United States. The federal healthcare takeover offers no solutions to the cost issues or quality of care issues, related to healthcare. One needs look no further than Massachusetts, to know that nationalized healthcare will not work. Rationing healthcare will put huge segments of America’s population at risk. Different Frames for One Situation Things are so uncertain with our business, we'd better not "rock the boat!" Our business is in such a nose dive, we must do something different right away or we will lose it all! Our business has major troubles. We need some help in diagnosing the problems and developing solutions. Critical and Strategic Thinking Critical Thinking Q’s - Browne & Keeley 1. What are the issues and the conclusions? 2. What are the reasons supporting the conclusions? 3. Which words or phrases are ambiguous? 4. What are the value conflicts and assumptions about value priorities? 5. What are the descriptive assumptions? 6. How good is the evidence? 7. What significant information is omitted? 8. Are the statistics deceptive or misleading? 9. Are there any fallacies in the reasoning? 10.Are there rival causes, i.e., other explanations or interpretations of the evidence or these findings? 11.What other reasonable conclusions are possible? Note, especially… 1. What are the issues and the conclusions? 2. What are the reasons supporting the conclusions? 5. What are the descriptive assumptions? 11. What other reasonable conclusions are possible? Some Un-critical Thinking Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible. – Lord Kelvin-British mathematician, physicist, and president of the British Royal Society, c. 1895. A severe depression like that of 1920-21 is outside the range of probability. – Harvard Economic Society-Weekly Letter November 16, 1929 More Un-critical Thinking Gone with the Wind is going to be the biggest flop in Hollywood history. – Gary Cooper, 1937, after turning down the role of Rhett Butler They couldn't hit an elephant at this dist_____ – General John B. Sedgwick-Union Army Civil War officer's last words, uttered during the Battle of Spotsylvania, 1864 Some Common Fallacies 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Slippery Slope: assuming that a proposed step will set off an uncontrollable chain of undesirable events Searching for Perfect Solution: unwilling to solve part of a problem Equivocation: using a key word with two or more meanings in an argument Appeal to Popularity : falsely assumes that something favored by a large group is desirable Appeal to Questionable Authority: citing an authority who lacks special expertise on the issue at hand Appeals to Emotions: using emotionally charged language to distract from relevant reasons and evidence Straw Person: Distorting one’s opponent’s point of view so that is it easy to attack Attacks: Attacks a person or a person’s background, instead of the person’s ideas Either-Or: assuming only two alternatives Wishful Thinking: assuming that, because we wish X were true or false, then X is indeed true or false Explaining by Naming: assuming that a name for some event or behavior adequately explained the event Glittering Generality: Use of vague emotionally charged words Red Herring: An irrelevant topic is presented to divert attention from the original issue Begging the Question: an argument in which the conclusion is assumed in the reasoning. Hasty Generalization: drawing a conclusion about a large group based on experiences with only a few members Faulty Analogy: using an analogy in which there are important relevant dissimilarities Causal Oversimplification: explaining an event by relying on causal factors that are insufficient… Confusion of Cause and Effect: confusing the cause with the effect of an event Neglect of a Common Cause: failure to recognize that two events may be related because of a 3rd factor Post Hoc: assuming that a particular event, B, is caused by another event, A, simply because B follows A in time. Note, especially… 1. Slippery Slope: assuming that a proposed step will set off an uncontrollable chain of undesirable events 3. Equivocation: using a key word with two or more meanings in an argument 6. Appeals to Emotions: using emotionally charged language to distract from relevant reasons and evidence 12. Glittering Generality: Use of vague emotionally charged words 20. Post Hoc: assuming that a particular event, B, is caused by another event, A, simply because B follows A in time. The Socialist Democrat Establishment of America wants to shut Pro-American Voices Up! (on a tee-shirt, with this capitalization) The history of forcing fluoride on humans through the fluoridation of drinking water is wrought with lies, greed and deception. Governments that add fluoride to drinking water supplies insist that it is safe, beneficial and necessary, however, scientific evidence shows that fluoride is not safe to ingest… The lies of the benefits of water fluoridation will continue to be fed to the public, not to encourage health benefits to a large number of people, but to profit the military-industrial complex. (2009) Some questions & fallacies What are the issues and the conclusions? What are the reasons supporting the conclusions? How good is the evidence? Equivocation: using a key word with two or more meanings in an argument Appeals to Emotions: using emotionally charged language to distract from relevant reasons and evidence Causal Oversimplification: explaining an event by relying on causal factors that are insufficient… Obama's got a health care logo that's right out of Adolf Hitler's playbook ... Adolf Hitler, like Barack Obama, also ruled by dictate.'' —Rush Limbaugh, Aug. 6, 2009 ''If ObamaCare passes, that free insurance card that's in people's pockets is gonna be as worthless as a Confederate dollar after the war between the states -- the Great War of Yankee Aggression.'' The number one economic threat to our nation and our well-being is the price of a gallon of gas. We as individuals and our nation are at risk. We have watched the price of gas sharply increase and to this day our Congress has done nothing or even indicated they have a plan. The quickest and most helpful thing Congress can do to reduce the price of gas right now is to lift the moratorium on drilling for oil in the U.S. and offshore. Drilling offshore can be done safely now! Other nations are doing it now! (2009) Strategic Thinking 1. Identify & focus on important issues 2. Select key, relevant information 3. Recognize systemic properties 4. Understand through: – Distinguishing causes from effects – Clarifying (tacit) underlying assumptions – Considering issue in a larger context – Maintaining a long-term view Strategic Thinking (cont.) 5. Appreciate implications & consequences 6. Generate alternatives & evaluate objectively 7. Integrate logical/rational & creative/generative thinking 8. Remain flexible 9. Act in the face of emotional discomfort Another View of Strategic Thinking Thinking more deeply to distinguish underlying causes and issues from more obvious symptoms Thinking more broadly to recognize systemic linkages, interactions, and patterns Thinking long-term as well as short-term about implications and consequences Strategic Thinking Case Apply strategic thinking to the case, making notes for yourself Discuss in groups Report out with total class discussion Critical Thinking Q’s - Browne & Keeley 1. What are the issues and the conclusions? 2. What are the reasons supporting the conclusions? 3. Which words or phrases are ambiguous? 4. What are the value conflicts and assumptions about value priorities? 5. What are the descriptive assumptions? 6. How good is the evidence? 7. What significant information is omitted? 8. Are the statistics deceptive or misleading? 9. Are there any fallacies in the reasoning? 10.Are there rival causes, i.e., other explanations or interpretations of the evidence or these findings? 11.What other reasonable conclusions are possible? Recent Examples Basic Decision Making Model (again) 1. Recognize a problem or dm situation 2. Frame the problem/decision (objectives, constraints, factors, priorities) 3. Generate alternatives 4. Evaluate & choose 5. Implement & evaluate results (iterate) 6. Stabilize & learn from A Decision Frame (again) Creating a context for the decision Recognize the real problem, not just symptoms Objectives Constraints & other factors Priorities Framing Exercise Off-shore oil drilling is a hot topic A 1962 federal law largely prohibits offshore drilling, except in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas and parts of Alaska and California 1990, Bush Sr. issues executive order banning other drilling. Clinton reissued it. July 2008, Bush Jr. issues executive order lifting the ban April 20, 2010, BP’s rig explodes, starting spill April 20, Obama orders 6-month moratorium on drilling Many moves & proposals +/- since then Framing Exercise In groups, develop frame: – Objectives – Main factors, priorities, & constraints considered – Selective arguments put forth One of: – (1) Oil company CEOs – (2) Obama & administration – (3) Business-friendly republicans – (4) Environmental advocates Since objectives are an important part of decision making, let’s consider them further Objectives (aka Goals) “If you don't know where you're going, you might wind up somewhere else.” (Yogi Berra) Define goals in terms of results and outcomes, not actions Frame as positive results to be achieved rather than problems to be avoided Distinguish among interests, objectives (= goals), strategies, positions, & actions Several Types of Objectives Content Relational Identity (self-esteem) Process ….CRIP Goals and Interests Interest: underlying need, desire, or concern Goal (objective): desired outcome or result Strategy: method for achieving a goal Position: stated action, result, or proposal Action: specific steps taken Is This an Interest, Objective, Strategy, Position, or Action? Make $60,000 this year I need more money with the arrival of a second child I think I deserve a 7% salary increase I will first try to negotiate an increase in my salary, then, if necessary, I will search for a second part-time job Contact the placement office in my professional society re part-time jobs Increase profits to $1.58/share for this year We need to hire more workers Impress the division head Good Objectives Consistent with mission & values S.M.A.R.T. – Specific – Measurable (or verifiable) – Agreed upon by key stakeholders – Realistic and achievable – Time- and cost-bound Case on framing & generating alternatives Visualization Visualization Self-fulfilling prophecies Pygmalion effect, plus or minus We tend to create negative images Replace with intentional, positive images Can help in many ways, e.g.: – Public speaking – Stress reduction – Various aspects of decision making – Difficult interpersonal interactions – Health… Argue for your limitations and, sure enough, they’re yours. Richard Bach The greatest discovery of my generation is that human beings, by changing the inner attitudes of their minds, can change the outer aspects of their lives. William James Visualization Exercise Identify a specific future situation in which you want to perform effectively Get very comfortable and relaxed Visualize moving yourself through space and time to be in that future situation With you in that situation performing effectively and the situation playing out positively – Experience it, not observe or think about it – With input to all senses: sight, hear, smell, feel, taste