Transcript Technological Drivers of Change in the Media Environment 2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR MAY 20, 2006 DAVID B.

Technological Drivers of Change
in the Media Environment
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
1
Principal Drivers of Change
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Computer processing power continues to double every
18 months at no increase in price. (Moore’s Law)
The cost of digital storage is dropping by 50% every 10
months.
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e.g. 200 GB hard drive - $89 (Staples this week)
Advances in audio/video compression continue,
squeezing increasing amounts of information down
same-sized channels or ”pipes”, increasing choice
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
2
Principal Drivers of Change
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conversion from analog to digital cable results in 8-fold
increase in channel choices in same cable bandwidth
conversion from analog to digital broadcast TV results
in 4-fold increase in number of standard definition
program streams
Satellite distribution of audio, video and data provides
increasing number of channel choices (e.g. DirecTV,
DishTV, Sirius Radio, XM Radio)
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
3
Principal Drivers of Change
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Digital file formats facilitate cross-platform
exchanges
 manipulation of content for reception, storage,
display, playout on various devices from cell
phones to large-screen HDTV displays
 convergence of functions e.g. cell phones and
handheld devices which “do everything”
Shift to Internet Protocol provides “interoperable
language” for voice, audio and video
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
4
Principal Drivers of Change

Bandwidth to homes, schools, businesses continues
to increase
 high speed broadband now in more than 40% of
US homes, emerging as audio and video
distribution platform side-by-side with
broadcast, satellite and cable
 fiber to the home supplementing hybrid
fiber/coax and copper for video, telephone,
broadband service
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
5
Principal Drivers of Change

Verizon’s (and other Baby Bell’s) “fiber to the
premises” now being deployed in Verizon and
ATT/SBC territories
nominal capacities
 fiber-optic cable
400,000 mbps
 hybrid fiber/coax
850 mbps
 copper twisted pair
10 mpbs
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
6
Principal Drivers of Change

Shift from wired to wireless technology
 omnipresent wireless connectivity with cell phones,
WiFi, WiMax, PDAs as universal handheld
multimedia devices for data, audio, video, telephony

cities deploying universally-available wireless
 high-speed Internet access now being seen as a
principal driver of economic development,
educational access
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
7
Principal Drivers of Change

proliferation of GPS-equipped receivers/display
devices facilitates delivery of location-specific content
and services
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
8
Principal Drivers of Change

increasingly sophisticated database management and
data mining capabilities enable personalization/
customization to match consumers, users with content
in which they are interested

assisted by collaborative filtering, recommender
systems, relationships engines (“others who ordered
this book also ordered . .”)
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
9
Principal Drivers of Change

increasingly sophisticated search tools
 applying category schemes and sampling to narrow
search results
 Google and Yahoo audio/video search services, soon
Microsoft
 check out < http://video.google.com/ > (in beta)
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
10
Principal Drivers of Change
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miniaturization, wearables, incorporate eversmaller computer devices into everyday objects,
including clothing
likely emerging use of nanotechnology, RFIDs in
retail, media applications
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
11
Consequences
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
12
Consequences
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Consumers becoming used to accessing whatever
content they want, when they want it, and whatever
display device is most convenient
Shift from real-time to non-real time use of content
using DVRs/PVRs, video on demand
Broadband facilitates on-demand distribution, emerges
as real time/non-real time audio/video/interactive
distribution platform
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
13
Consequences
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Increasing capacity of packaged media (e.g. HD-DVDs)
Proliferation of iPods, MP3 players, podcasting, video
iPods
Videogames emerging as content platforms for
education and training, as well as for entertainment,
storytelling, on-line connectivity
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
14
Consequences

evolution of home media servers for storing, serving
digital assets (movies, music, family photos, etc.)
 TiVo, DVRs, cable and satellite set-top boxes
battling for position
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
15
Consequences

Technologies which ignore geography (e.g. Internet,
satellite, wireless) erode geographic market boundaries
 exacerbate battles between wholesalers and retailers
over who delivers services directly to consumers

local becomes global, e.g. audio/video streaming on
line
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
16
Consequences

Once content is in digital form, there is no technical
reason why any content ever needs to go “out of print”
(The “Long Tail” phenomenon)
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
17
Consequences

“Slingbox” ($199) relays any TV programs you can
receive in your home (from broadcast, cable, or
satellite) to an Internet-connected PC anywhere in the
world

provides full control of your home TV or DVR from
any distant location (even if someone else is
watching at home) extending the battle for control
of the remote well beyond the family room couch
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
18
Consequences
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for media producers and distributors, accelerating
audience segmentation/ fragmentation
erosion of effectiveness of interruption marketing, e.g.
commercial advertising, traditional on-air fundraising;
ubiquitous use of product placement in commercial
media
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
19
Consequences

“Google advertising model” uses consumers’ search
preferences to identify areas of interest, provides
“sponsored links” to content and service providers who
may have related products
 facilitates self-selection of communities of interest
organized around specific interests
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
20
Consequences

“Google Advertising Model” turns the traditional
advertising model on its head
 John Wanamaker (founded first US department
store in mid-1800’s):
 "I know half the money I spend on
advertising is wasted, but I can never find out
which half.”
 If he were alive today, he would be closer to
knowing.
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
21
Consequences
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Lowered threshold to entry for content creators,
distributors
 e.g. cell phone camera video in news programs
Equipment cost to achieve high technical quality also
declining
 High Def “pro-sumer” cameras available for less
than $5,000; desktop HD editing for $300.
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
22
Consequences
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technology facilitates interaction between
content/service providers and their audiences
 audiences no longer necessarily anonymous to
communicators or to each other
facilitates interactivity, not just two-way but peer-topeer
“Markets are conversations” < www.cluetrain.com >
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
23
Consequences

critical need for content and service providers to
understand viewers’ and listeners’ increasinglycomplex media use behaviors
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
24
Consequences

decreasing ability of legacy audience measurement
tools to track increasingly-complex media use
behaviors
 Nielsen having difficulty tracking use of DVRs,
VoD, broadband, let alone tracking viewing of
hundreds of conventional video choices, multitasking with Internet use
 sample-based measurement being replaced with
proprietary direct measurement technologies
enabled by two-way connections between
distributors and consumers (e.g. cable set-top boxes,
TiVo)
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
25
THE audience research question:
“ What’s the job they’re hiring us to do?
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
26
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
27
NPS RESEARCH
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PTV shows the types of programs that I can’t find
anywhere else
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The diversity of PBS programs is personally appealing
to me

PBS programs allow me to see the topics they cover
from many different points of view
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
28
NPS RESEARCH
• Compared w/ programs on other types of stations, I
really pay attention to PBS programs

PBS provides programs that appeal to a wide range of
interests

Watching PBS programs makes me feel better about
myself.
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
29
Technological Drivers of Change
in the Media Environment
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
30
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINAR
MAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON
31