Transcript Agenda Item 8.4: Trade and the crisis Infrastructure: Recent developments and outlook for traffic flows and capacities.

Agenda Item 8.4:
Trade and the crisis
Infrastructure: Recent
developments and
outlook for traffic flows
and capacities
Global Infrastructure
Needs 2030/50
A project of the OECD
International Futures
Programme
Infrastructures Project
• Phase 1: Surface transport, water,
electricity, telecommunications
(completed 2007)
• Phase 2: Transcontinental infrastructures :
ports, airports, rail corridors, oil and gas
pipelines (on-going)
• Three time horizons: Short-term 2015;
Medium-term projections 2030; Longterm scenarios 2050
Transcontinental
Infrastructures
Short Term Outlook to 2015
John White and Barrie Stevens
Advisory Unit to the Secretary-General
Current Situation and Outlook to 2015
• Financial and credit crisis – surprisingly sharp impacts
on GDP growth, trade and transport demand in 2008-09
• The subsequent recession has been the most severe for
decades – and different from previous downturns
• Recovery is underway - but the pace of recovery uneven
• The Outlook to 2015 is still relatively uncertain
– different trajectories in OECD and non-OECD countries
World Economic Trends – and expected rebound
• Deep contraction in
advanced economies in
2008-09
World GDP - % change
• Global recession expected
to end in 2009
• Subdued recovery ahead
for countries most affected
• Return to strong growth in
emerging economies 2010 onwards
Source: IMF October 2009
World GDP and International Trade Growth
Trade growth - historically 2 or more times GDP growth
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
GDP growth
Trade growth
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
Forecasts anticipate substantial trade rebound and growth from 2010 onwards
Impacts on traffic volumes,
especially freight and energy
Overview of recent forecasts and projections
Aviation Outlook - Passenger Forecasts to 2013
Source: Airports Council International, August 2009
Strong air passenger growth to 2013 - growth above av. long term rate (4.7% p.a.)
Aviation Outlook - Air freight forecasts to 2014
World air cargo – forecast annual growth rates (%)
10%
5%
8%
8%
8%
8%
2011
2012
2013
2014
3.50%
0%
2009
2010
-5%
-10%
-15%
-15%
-20%
Source: Airports Council International Aug 2009
Projected Air Freight growth well above av. annual rate of 3.8% p.a. (1999-2008)
Maritime Outlook – Forecast growth in Container
Port Handling to 2014
World Container Port Handling - annual growth rates (%)
Container Port Handling Growth Rates %
8%
6%
5%
4%
6%
6%
7%
2011
2012
2013
6%
3%
2%
0%
-2%
2008
2009
2010
2014
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-11%
-14%
Source: Drewry, Oct 2009
Recovery from 2009 fall – but container growth rates below previous trends (>10% pa)
Rail Outlook– Forecast Rail Freight Carriage 2015
Rail Freight carriage index levels – 2000 and 2015
GDP and freight carriage Index levels
180
155.8
160
140
136.2
127.5
2000 Base
year index
112.9
120
100
155.8
100
100
100
100
100
80
60
2015 Rail
Freight
carriage index
level
40
20
0
Europe OECD
US and Canada Russian Federation
China
India
Source: Infrastructure to 2030 report
Strong rail freight growth expected in many places – particularly China and India
Oil outlook – forecast growth in primary demand 2000 and 2015
World Primary Oil Demand 2000 - 2015
Reference Scenario - Million barrels per day
25
Primary Oil Demand
20
15
2000 Oil Demand
2008 Oil Demand
10
2015 Oil Demand
5
0
OECD Nth
America
OECD Europe
OECD Pacific
Russia
China
India
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 (Nov.2009)
Non-OECD regions – especially Asia and the Middle-East - account for all oil growth
Gas outlook – forecast growth in primary demand
2000 to 2015
Natural Gas Demand 2000 - 2015
(Billion cubic metres p.a.)
900
800
2000 Natural gas
demand
Natural Gas Demand
700
2007 Natural Gas
Demand
600
500
2015 Natural gas
demand
400
300
200
100
0
North America
Europe
Pacific
Russia
China
India
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2009
Gas ‘glut’ with demand -3% in 2009 – but demand to grow 2.5% pa from 2010-2015
Impact on capacities
Aviation Outlook – Capacity Shortfall in Europe?
1. ACI 2008: Before the downturn, 93 airports (with 2/3 of
world traffic) were already capacity constrained. In EU,
over 60 airports not able to meet demand by 2015
2. Schipol [Director, A/P Development], Oct. 2009.
There is ‘no airport capacity crunch in Europe’…..
Source: Infrastructure to 2030 report
Maritime – Container Flows and Port Capacity
Port Capacity Assessments
1. ESCAP, 2007: Substantial new capacity will be
required in all major regions over period to 2015.
ESCAP region will dominate the requirements for new
berths during this period.
2. Drewry, Oct. 2009: Many ports have invested heavily
in new terminals based on surge of post - Panamax
tonnage. Neither the ships nor terminals are needed for
several years.
Outlook – GDP growth vs World trade & transport
(IMF October 2009)
IMF 2009: World Trade / Income
Drewry, Oct 2009. GDP/container trade
• The ‘GDP to container’
trade multiple has typically
been well in excess of 2.0
• Unlikely western governments / consumers can fuel
similar growth in future serving to reduce the rate at
which container trade
growth can exceed global
economic activity.
Source: IMF WEO 2009
Europe: Rail Outlook – Capacity Shortfall in 2015
Source: UIC Study on Capacity reserve, 2005.
Increased rail passengers & freight likely to expose EU capacity shortfalls over 2015-30
Oil outlook – Forecast growth in primary demand
Primary oil demand by region to 2030
Primary oil demand (Millions
barrel/day
30
25
OECD Nth
America
OECD Europe
20
OECD Pacific
15
China
10
5
0
2000
2007
2015
2030
Source: IEA WEO 2009
In the oil and gas sector, most companies have announced cutbacks in capital spending as well as project delays and cancellations. Falling energy investment will have farreaching and potentially serious consequences.
Gas pipelines – projected routes to Europe
Source: Infrastructure to 2030 report - TBA
Conclusions
• Financial crisis and recession have taken the pressure
off capacity shortfalls in the short term - in all sectors.
• However, growth in accordance with ‘Reference Case’
projections would see: a doubling of air passengers in 15
years; a tripling of air freight in 20 years; very large
increases in port container handling; and increased
demand for oil and gas, particularly during 2015-2030
- in all cases, the largest increases will occur in the
Asia/Pacific region, led by China and India.
• The hiatus in investment in some locations will
exacerbate the previously expected shortfalls – once
world GDP and demand rebounds to earlier trend levels.