American Wind Energy Association

Wind Market Overview

COG Renewable Energy Seminar June 22, 2005 Presentation by: Randall Swisher, Executive Director American Wind Energy Association

American Wind Energy Association

American Wind Energy Association

• The National Trade Association representing the Wind Industry in the U.S.

– Over 700 Business Members, including: • Turbine Manufacturers • Component Suppliers • Project Developers • Electric Utilities • Lawyers, Consultants, Investors, etc.

American Wind Energy Association

Benefits of Renewables

• Economic Development • Energy Cost Stability • Resource Diversity & Conservation • Environmental

American Wind Energy Association

Renewable Technologies Aren’t All the Same

•Applications are Different •Economics are Different •Market Barriers are Different

American Wind Energy Association Turbines: Different Sizes and Applications

Small (

• Farms 

10 kW)

• Homes (Grid-connected) • Remote Applications (e.g. battery changing, water pumping, telecom sites)

Intermediate (10-500 kW)

• Village Power • Hybrid Systems • Distributed Power

Large (500 kW – 5 MW)

• Central Station Wind Farms • Distributed Power • Offshore Wind

American Wind Energy Association

Different Types of Wind Power: Large

Utility Power Plants

Single Large

American Wind Energy Association

Different Types of Wind Power: Small

Small Turbines Serve Individual Customers

Water Pumper Customer-Owned Small Generator

American Wind Energy Association

Different Types of Wind Power

Individual Large Turbines for Municipal Needs Spirit Lake Schools, Iowa Traverse City, Mich. Utility

American Wind Energy Association

Wind Power Isn’t Perfect

• Wind Power output varies over time • Wind Power can only meet part of your load • Wind Power is location-dependent • Wind Power is transmission-dependent • Wind Power has environmental impacts . . . But Wind Power has a Great Future!

American Wind Energy Association

Wind Is Growing Worldwide

Global Wind Capacity More Than Tripled in Last Five Years

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Germany: 16,629 MW Spain: 8,263 MW United States: 6,740 MW Denmark: 3,117 MW India: 3,000 MW

25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 19 82 19 85 19 88 19 91 19 94 19 97 20 00 Rest of World Europe United States Global Cumulative Total Over 47,300 MW by end of 2004 Source: AWEA’s Global Market Report

American Wind Energy Association

Wind Has Hit Sustained Takeoff in the U.S.

• 2005 will be a record year – about 2,500 MW • 6,740 MW now installed • Market fundamentals are strong – Wind’s Competitive Posture Strong and Improving • No Longer “Alternative Energy” – Growing Interest Within Financial Community – U.S. Should be World’s Largest Wind Market Over Next Decade • Consistent policy is key current constraint

3000 2500 American Wind Energy Association

U.S. Annual Capacity Additions

MW Installed

2500

2000 1500

1696 1687

1000

661

500

172 366 442 216 167 59 134 173 74

0

5 6 41 42 10 11 233 53 410 389

1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Years

Inconsistent Policy Yields an “Up and Down” Market

American Wind Energy Association

Driving Forces Behind Wind’s Growth in U.S.

• Wind’s Steadily Improving Economics • State Policy • Gas Price Volatility • Utility Experience and Perspective • Environmental Issues

American Wind Energy Association

Renewable Energy Standards

MT: 15% by 2015 MN: 19% by 2015 NV: 15% by 2013 CA: 20% by 2017 CO: 10% by 2015 IA: 2% by 1999 HI: 20% by 2020 AZ: 1.1% by 2007, 60% solar NM: 10% by 2011 TX: 2.7% by 2009 WI: 2.2% by 2011 ME: 30% by 2000 RI: 16% by 2019 MA: 4% by 2009 NY: 25% by 2013 CT: 10% by 2010 NJ: 6.5% by 2012 PA: 8% by 2020 MD: 7.5% by 2014 • 19 state standards • Technology, vintage, credit trading, sunset, location eligibility requirements differ

American Wind Energy Association

Wind Insures Against Fuel Price Risk

• Platts “conservatively estimates that generating electricity from renewable sources can ultimately save consumers more than $5/MWh by eliminating fuel price risk”* *4/8/03 announcement re “Power Price Stability: What’s it Worth?” Great River Energy

American Wind Energy Association Different Ways to Buy Renewable Energy • Rate Based as Part of Utility Portfolio • Green Pricing – No competition, monopoly utility offers customers choice of supporting wind power construction.

• Green Marketing – In competitive market, customers empowered to choose service providers that contract to purchase renewables • Green Tags – Environmental attributes divorced from energy

American Wind Energy Association Wind Energy is the Star of the Green Market!

Represents 93.8%* of Green Power in the U.S.

• Environmental Benefit • Cost-Competitive • Popular • Visual Appeal • Hydro and Gas Resources Complementary

*Source: NREL, Sept. 2004

American Wind Energy Association

Benefits of Wind:

Environmental

•

Reduced Greenhouse Gas Emissions

30,000 MW of wind energy in U.S. = 100 MMT/year cut in CO2 emissions •

Reduced Air Pollution

30,000 MW of wind energy in U.S. = 250,000 tons/year cut in NOx emissions •

Reduced Water Pollution

U.S. wind capacity at 30,000 MW = reduced mercury emissions and healthier water for all Americans

American Wind Energy Association

What is Wind’s Market Potential?

• At least 20,000 MW total installed by 2010 in U.S.

• 6% of electricity supply by 2020 = 100,000 MW of wind power installed by 2020 = a $150 billion market!

American Wind Energy Association

What are the Barriers to a $150 Billion U.S. Wind Market?

• Inconsistent Policy • Transmission constraints • Electric Industry Operational Rules • Siting

American Wind Energy Association

Wind Development in the Mid-Atlantic

• Siting often challenging • Projects often smaller • Wind speeds lower than Great Plains • Green Market Important

American Wind Energy Association

Mid-Atlantic Wind Issues:

Regional Collaboration is Essential • A Working Green Market in PJM Region – Implement a certificates-based energy tracking system – Green Power Standard Offer Service • Coherent Regional Policy – Regional RPS – Regional CO2 cap & trade • Clean Air credits/allowances for renewables • Transmission expansion and rules • Thanks for leadership

American Wind Energy Association

Contact AWEA

www.AWEA.org

[email protected]

Or write to American Wind Energy Association 1101 14 th Street NW, 12 Washington, DC 20005 th Floor