Addressing vulnerability to climate variability and change: strategies to enhance adaptive capacities International workshop on “Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change: From Practice to Policy” 11-12 May.
Download ReportTranscript Addressing vulnerability to climate variability and change: strategies to enhance adaptive capacities International workshop on “Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change: From Practice to Policy” 11-12 May.
Addressing vulnerability to climate variability and change: strategies to enhance adaptive capacities International workshop on “Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change: From Practice to Policy” 11-12 May 2006, New Delhi Rajasthan Assam Karnataka UP AP Bihar Gujarat Orissa Chattisgarh Vulnerability indicators Floods Scenariobased modelling Droughts Community interaction Review of studies on coping measures to extreme events •Natcom coastal/disasters •APN glaciers •Ford SLR • APN •CIDA agr/climate agr info •OFDA floods/droughts • WB agr/water •Natcom agr/wat/for/health •Indo-UK agr/wat/ for/health/coastal • APN agr/rice•WB agr wheat Single stress – climate change Climate variability and change Multiple stresses Macro-scale modeling approaches highlight vulnerable regions HadCM2 Country-level Climate Change Impacts on Cereal Production Potential on Currently Cultivated Land 2080s Climate change and economic changes in India: the impacts on agriculture • Basic theme: – climate change does not occur in isolation – globalization can alter vulnerability patterns – DOUBLE EXPOSURE – agriculture most important sector for India • Timeframe: February 2001 – March 2004 • Funders: Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) and Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Government of Norway • Partners: TERI, CICERO, IISD, Rutgers University Elements of vulnerability profiles Adaptive capacity Biophysical vulnerability • Soil degradation and cover • Groundwater availability Social vulnerability • Agricultural workers and labourers • Literacy • Gender discrimination • Child mortality and fertility Technological vulnerability • Irrigation • Infrastructure Climate sensitivity (monsoon dependence and dryness) Trade sensitivity (port distance and import-sensitive crops) Village-level case studies – hh surveys + PRAs • coping capacity of communities to current adverse conditions • factors that enhance/constrain adaptive capacity of farmers Climate change vulnerability Globalization vulnerability Jhalawar, Rajasthan • drought prone • low irrigation coverage, literacy, infrastructure Chitradurga, Karnataka • water scarcity • proximity to city • contract farming and exports Anantapur, Andhra Pradesh • semi-arid • response of groundnut farmers to import competition Jagatsingpur, Orissa • cyclones, river floods • high population density • acute poverty • proximity to port Raipur, Chattisgarh • rice belt of central India • crop diversification • low literacy, infrastructure Opportunities to diversify Mixed farming:Anghora Access to irrigation enhances coping options Much better availability of electricity, health facilities, and transport infrastructure (Kota markets) Rainfed farming: Lakhakheri Umat Semi/medium farmers – sale of stocks Landless labourers – seasonal migration Small/marginal farmers – temporary coping measures No long-term adaptive solutions Broad objectives • Reviewing coping strategies being employed by communities in India and assessing issues and opportunities for adaptation » study focus on drought and flood affected regions » distinguish between reactive temporary mechanisms and measures for strengthening the adaptive capacities » links with developmental aspects will be explored • Assessing the effectiveness with which coping measures are being employed and the factors influencing their implementation • Identifying/ suggesting measures to enhance adaptive capacities » Incremental in nature than those currently being employed to cope during with such circumstances Study regions Preliminary discussions and consultations Pennar in Andhra Pradesh, Mahanadi in Orissa, Godavari in Maharashtra AP Vulnerability Index Focus: Chittoor and Anantapur ADILABAD VIZIANAGARAM NIZAMABAD KARIMNAGAR WARANGAL VISAKHAPATNAM MEDAK KHAMMAM HYDERABAD RANGAREDDI WEST GODAVARI NALGONDA KRISHNA GUNTUR MAHBUBNAGAR PRAKASAM KURNOOL ANANTAPUR CUDDAPAH NELLORE CHITTOOR EAST GODAVARI SRIKAKULAM 1991: Anantapur – very high vul & Chittoor – high vul 2001: Shift to high vul in Anantapur Micro-scale, case study based approaches highlight who is more vulnerable and extent of vulnerability Example of matrix: level 1 Jhalawar Irrigation Chitradurga Marketing network Migration Jagatsingpur Insurance Cropping pattern change Raipur Which coping options are used? Example of matrix: level 2 Irrigation Insurance Awareness of govt schemes Education Land holding size Community organisation (SHGs/PRIs/NGOs) Cropping pattern change Marketing network Which factors influence the effectiveness of those coping options? Adaptive capacity influenced by… • Physical factors – cropping pattern, crop diversification / shift to resistant varieties or tolerant crops • Socioeconomic factors – asset ownership – land, house, cattle, pumpsets, tractors, tillers, threshers – access to public goods & facilities – banking, education and health services – infrastructural support – irrigation, markets, proper communication network – alternative employment options Coping Strategies • • • • Reactive Coping Change in cropping intensity Credits/ loans Shifting cattle and household • Proactive Coping • Diversification to non-vulnerable income sources (aquaculture, tolerant crop varieties….) • House adaptation - platforms • Insurance • Access to Government programs Case study in Orissa: Preferred interventions in terms of priority as suggested by villagers Case study in Maharashtra • Developments in the last 15 years – soil conservation initiatives introduced uphill by the village head » Includes digging trenches to control soil erosion and develop its fertility – most villagers not supportive of the fact initially – interest only in a very small group » Related to threat of water being utilised uphill further affecting its availability downhill – actual situation » High rates of run-off from the hillock surpassing the village, low recharge rates within the domain of that watershed Picture: World Bank Study S Bhadwal, 2005 A journey in the past – activities relating to construction & restoration of tanks taken up – process for building simultaneous large and small tanks for storage and recharge started – tanks located downhill one after the other in series Picture: S Bhadwal, 2005 Picture: S Bhadwal, 2005 Results to be seen..… – benefits in the form of reduced run-off, increased recharge rates, increase in water tables and recharge of open wells “visible” – community investments and other bilateral investments for soil conservation efforts and development of tanks started – situation today………of water tables lying at a depth of 40-50 feet, its availability for irrigation purposes – checking outward migration – generation of other income generating opportunities – And more to list……. Further developments • Proper planning and execution of other plans/ programmes in the village • Setting up of an NGO within the village with villagers as members » Various village development activities promoted including education and health centres besides the other development work » In some cases technical expertise sought from the government bodies, especially the rural development department • Village regulates its own water usage in line with the crop plans » Villagers convinced not to grow sugarcane » Cropping patterns changed to onions, maize debarring sugarcane growth » Crops taken each year based on an annual revisit of the rainfall situation Concluding • Strong and purposive leadership in the village has brought about a transformation……..enhancing the resilience of communities in being able to cope even during drought years • Examples can be quoted elsewhere in the country where such local level initiatives under strong leadership have been successful » Tarun Bhagat Sangh and » Initiatives by Shri Ana Hazare in Raley Gaon Sidhi • Strong need to understand the processes behind and pose as testimonials From practices to policy • Varying degrees of vulnerability at the national, state, district, village and household level • Policy formulation to recognise the differentials • Also, learning's from community initiatives (eg., Maharashtra) and need for further successful government initiatives (eg., Maharashtra) to be adopted • Conditions for replication at different levels needs to be critically analysed • Synergise with different government policies for different purpose for better fortification of capacities (SGSY, Bharat Nirmaan, IWDP, DPAP etc….) Thank you. http://www.teriin.org http://www.teriin.org/coping