Transcript CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research & Sales Forecasting MARKETING RESEARCH FUNCTION  Focus on determining: – – – market potential market share market characteristics.

CHAPTER 8
Marketing Research & Sales Forecasting
MARKETING RESEARCH
FUNCTION

Focus on determining:
–
–
–
market potential
market share
market characteristics
Classification of market
research companies

Syndicated services: give info to all
customers

Full service suppliers: performs all research

Limited service suppliers: parts of research
MIS: Marketing Information Systems
 MDSS (Marketing Decision Support
System)

–
computer software that helps users obtain & use
info to make marketing decisions
6 Steps in Marketing Research
1. PROBLEM DEFINITION
–
is it a symptom or a problem?
Ex. Our sales are down.
“Well Defined Problem is Half Solved”
2. EXPLORATORY RESEARCH

Investigate
3. FORMULATE HYPOTHESIS
–
tentative explanation for some event
4. RESEARCH DESIGN
–
Master plan to get a direct test of the hypothesis
5. DATA COLLECTION
–
–
Secondary Data: less time and money but
could be obsolete or irrelevant
Primary Data: detailed, exact, valid but costly
and time consuming
How to Collect Primary Data
1. Observational method: watch people
2. Survey method
–
Telephone interviews: cheap & convenient

–
–
–
bias to people who have phones
Mail surveys: cost effective & anonymous but returns
are very low
Fax surveys
Personal interviews: good method


most time consuming & expensive
mall intercepts good alternative
–
Computer interviews
 faster
gathering & analysis of data
 respondents may be more truthful than face to face
 very biased to computer users
–
Focus group interviews
8
to 12 people brought together to discuss a subject
of interest
SAMPLING TECHNIQUES

one of the most important aspects of
marketing research, if sample wrong results will be wrong
CLASSIFICATION OF
SAMPLES
1. Probability Sample
 each
member has an equal chance of being selected
2. Nonprobability Sample

arbitrary ones not subject to statistical tests
6. Interpretation and Presentation
–
clear, concise reports directed to management,
not other researchers

QUALITATIVE FORECASTING
subjective sales forecasts - based on opinions
not historical fact
1. JURY OF EXECUTIVE OPINION
-combines & avg outlooks of top company
executives
2. DELPHI TECHNIQUE
–
 seeks
opinion of experts outside the firm & used to
predict long-term issues
3. SALESFORCE COMPOSITE
 what
do the salesforce believe (Bottom up approach)
4. SURVEY OF BUYER INTENTIONS
 mail
in questionaires, telephone polls, & personal
interviews

QUANTITATIVE FORECASTING
–
more scientific approach
1. MARKET TESTS
 gauge
consumer responses to a new product
2. TREND ANALYSIS
 analyze
historical relationship btw sales & time
3. EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
– more sophisticated trend analysis that assigns a
weight factor to each year of sales data