Transcript IUAPPA-IPURGAP Reducing the Impact of Vehicles On Air and Environmental Quality in Cities January 22-23, 2004 The Mexico City Air Quality Case Study Mario J.

IUAPPA-IPURGAP
Reducing the Impact of Vehicles
On Air and Environmental Quality in Cities
January 22-23, 2004
The Mexico City Air Quality Case Study
Mario J. Molina and Luisa T. Molina
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Topographical Map of the MCMA
•Population Growth
>17.5 million (1999):
20-fold increase since
1900
Growth projection to 25
million (2010)
• Urban Sprawl
>1500 km2 (1999): 10fold increase since 1960
>Expansion to
peripheral areas
• Geographic and
Topographical Conditions
>High altitude
(2240m): less efficient
combustion processes
>Mountains are a
physical barrier for
winds
>2nd largest mega-city
in the world
>Temperature
inversions in the dry
season
• Increases in Emissions
Sources
Expansion of the MCMA
Trends in criteria pollutant concentrations for the MCMA
(averages of data at five RAMA sites: TLA, XAL, MER, PED, and CES)
3
Lead (g/m )
6.0
Ann. avg.
5.0
SO2 (ppb)
140
120
95 Perc
24-hr. standard
Daily 95%
Daily 50%
100
4.0
Ann. avg.
80
3.0
Annual standard
60
2.0
40
1.0
20
0.0
0
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
12
10
1998
Annual standard
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
CO (ppm)
8-hr. standard
8-hr. 95%
8-hr. 50%
8
Ann. avg.
6
4
2
0
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Trends in criteria pollutant concentrations for the MCMA
(averages of data at five RAMA sites: TLA, XAL, MER, PED, and CES)
300
PM 10 (g/m3 ) at manual
Ozone (ppb)
1-hr. 95%
1-hr. 50%
Ann. avg.
250
200
Ann. avg.
160
200
120
150
100
1-hr. standard
80
50
40
0
0
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
1988
Annual standard
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
Integrated Program on Urban, Regional and
Global Air Pollution: Mexico City Case Study
(Mexico City Air Quality Program)
Objective:
Provide objective, balanced assessments of the
causes and alternative cost-effective solutions to
urban, regional and global air pollution problems
through quality scientific, technological, social and
economic analysis in the face of incomplete data and
uncertainty
- Use Mexico City as the initial case study
- Develop an approach that applies globally
- Build on strong base of ongoing basic research
A Framework for Integrated Assessment
<< Integrated Science & Economic Impact >>
Atmospheric
Science
Atmospheric
Data
Ecosystem
Science
Health Effects
Science
Ecosystem
Data
Demographic &
Health Statistics
<< Policy & Mitigation >>
Behavior and
Emissions
Policy Development
& Implementation
Emissions &
Reduction Costs
Gas-Particulate
Photochemical
Model
Health
Effects/Impacts
Models
(Agri cult ure, Water,
Cl imat e Change, etc.)
(Damage Funct ions ,
P roducti vi ty Loss es ,
et c.)
Economic Costs
of Ecosystem
Damages
Economic Costs
of Human
Impacts
Transpor tation
Model(s)
Ecosystem
Impact Model
Energy Supply
/Industr y
Meteorological
Model
Household/
Com mer ci al
Area / Poi nt / Mobi le
Policy & Other
Recommendations
(Insti tuti onal & Soci al
Factors / Stakehol der
Education & Outr each)
( Response Strategies / Scenar ios )
Collaborative Research and Education Program
Mexican Participants
Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana (UAM)
Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo (IMP)
Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX)
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM)
Universidad de las Americas, Puebla (UDLA)
Universidad Iberoamericana (UIA)
Instituto Tecnológico de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey (ITESM)
Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (SEMARNAT)
Instituto Nacional de Ecología (INE); Centro Nacional de Investigación y Capacitación Ambiental (CENICA)
Gobierno del Distrito Federal (GDF); Secretaria de Medio Ambiente (SMA)
Gobierno del Estado de México, Secretaria de Ecología (SEGEM)
Secretaría de Salud (SS)
Insituto Nacional de Salud Pública (INSP)
US Participants
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
Washington State University (WSU)
Montana State University (MSU)
University of Colorado at Boulder (UC)
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL)
Aerodyne Research Inc. (ARI)
Department of Energy/Atmospheric Science Program (DOE/ASP)
Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)
Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL)
Colorado State University (CSU)
Pennsylvania State University (PSU)
National Science Foundation (NSF)
University of California at Riverside (UCR)
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
European Participants
Chalmers University, Sweden
ETH-Zurich
Ecole Polytechnique Federal de Lausanne
University of Heidelberg
Free University of Berlin
Summary of the First Phase of the
Mexico City Air Quality Program
Chapter 1. Air Quality Impacts: A Global and
Local Concerns
Chapter 2. Cleaning the Air: A Comparative
Overview
Chapter 3. Forces Driving Pollutant Emissions in
the MCMA
Chapter 4. Health Benefits of Air Pollution
Control
Chapter 5. Air Pollution Science in the MCMA:
Understanding Source-Receptor Relationships
Through Emissions Inventories, Measurements
and Modeling
Chapter 6. The MCMA Transportation System:
Mobility and Air Pollution
Chapter 7. Key Findings and Recommendations
NOx Emissions (1998)
1%
8%
Heavy Diesel Truck
4%
Private automobile
Heavy Gasoline Truck
3%
4%
35%
4%
Vegetacion
Taxi
5%
Buses
Electricity Generation
Combis/Micros
Other Industry
6%
11%
19%
Services
Other Transport
PM10 Emissions (1998)
2%
2%
12%
Soil Erosion
Heavy Diesel Truck
3%
40%
4%
Private automobile
Buses
4%
Metallic Minerals
Other Industry
Other Transport
33%
Services
5
4
3
3
% change in daily mortality/10 ug/m increase in PM 10
Estimates of mortality impacts from particulate
matter, drawn from time-series studies
worldwide and in Mexico City
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
- - - - - - - - - W orldwide literature - - - - - - -
Pooled
worldwide
estimate
Mexico
City
studies
Estimated Health Benefits of a
10% Reduction of Pollution Levels in the MCMA
Background Rate
(case-persons-yr)
Risk Coefficient
(% per 10µg/m3)
Risk Reduction
(cases/yr)
Cohort
Mortality
10/1000
3
2000
Time Series
Mortality
5/1000
1
1000
Chronic
Bronchitis
14/1000
10
10 000
Ozone
Background Rate
(case-persons-yr)
Risk Coefficient
(% per 10µg/m3)
Risk Reduction
(cases/yr)
Time Series
Mortality
5/1000
0.5
300
Minor Restricted
8000/1000
1.0
2,000,000
PM10
Activity Days
Focus of the Second Phase of the
Mexico City Air Quality Program
Systematic development of scientific information, evaluation
methodologies and simulation tools in the following areas:
 activities that lead to the generation of pollutants in the MCMA
(transportation, production of goods and services, degradation of the natural
environment, etc.);
 dispersion and transformation of atmospheric pollutants
(focus on ozone and particles);
 evaluation of risks and the effects of pollutants on the population;
 cost-benefit analysis of control strategies;
 integrated assessment of policy options and priorities for control strategies;
 strategies for capacity building.
MCMA-2003 Field Measurement Campaign
Science Questions
Emission inventories:
What are the sources of NH3? HCHO? What are their emissions rates?
Are hydrocarbon emissions underestimated? Are NOx emissions overestimated?
Are there significant biogenic emissions, e.g., terpenes?
Chemistry: transformation of emissions in the atmosphere
How is the reduction in NOx and/or HC related to reduction in O3 and PM?
Would reductions in NOx lead to a reduction in nitrate particulates?
What is the impact of reducing ammonia?
How much HCHO is primary vs. secondary (produced photochemically)?
What is the partitioning of NOy (NOx, HNO3, organic nitrates)?
What are the sources and the chemical composition of the fine PM?
MCMA-2003 Field Measurement Campaign
Science Questions (cont)
Meteorology:
What is the height of the mixing layer?
How does it evolve with time?
Is there any “carry over” of pollutants from one day to the next?
Do the models satisfactorily predict wind speeds and directions?
Urban-Regional-Global Chemical Transformation:
What are the effective source terms for emissions for global climate models?
What are the roles of aerosols in modifying the local/regional radiative transfer
processes and cloud properties?
Ozone with 1-4 x HC emissions
Mar. 2, 1997
Mar. 14, 1997
160
160
140
100
RAMA
1xHC
2xHC
3xHC
4xHC
120
Ozone (ppb)
120
Ozone (ppb)
140
RAMA
1xHC
2xHC
3xHC
4xHC
80
60
100
80
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
0
4
8
12
Hour
16
20
24
0
4
8
12
Hour
Ozone concentrations are average of all measurement sites.
16
20
24
MCMA-2003 Field Campaign
Supersite Instrumentation
Supersite Location: CENICA (UAM-Ixtapalapa)
Instrumentation:
 CENICA - monitoring station, tethered balloon
 RAMA - monitoring station
 WSU – VOC sampling
 DOE/ PNNL – PTRMS, single particle sampler/analyzer, MFRSBR, RSR
 UCB/LBL – Particle sampling apparatus
 DOE/Argonne National Lab – PAN, black carbon, olefins, NH3
 Colorado U. – AMS
 Penn State – OH and HO2
 IMP – MINIVOLS and MOUDI , aldehyde cartridges
 MIT/U. Heidelberg - DOAS
 MIT/ Free U. Berlin – LIDAR
 MIT – PAHs
 UCR – nitro-PAHs, PAHs
 EPFL - LIDAR
 UNAM – FTIR
 Chalmers – FTIR, DOAS
 Plus others
MIT/IUP DOAS equipment on Cenica Roof-top (Hut)
Radiation:
• Spectrometry
Actinic photon flux
(incl. straylight)
-> any J-value
• Filterradiometry
J(NO2)
East
DOAS-1
L= 960m
H= 16m
DOAS-2
L= 4420m
H= 70m
• BTX, Styrene
• Benzaldehyde, Phenol
• Naphtalene
• NO2, HONO
• HCHO, O3, SO2
• HONO, HCHO, O3
• NO2, (NO3)
• SO2
• Glyoxal
South
South-West
Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS) at CENICA
100% transmission (60-600 nm), aerodynamic sizing, linear mass signal.
• Jayne et al., Aerosol Science and Technology 33:1-2(49-70), 2000.
• Jimenez et al., J. Geophys. Res.- Atmospheres, 108(D7), 8425, doi:10.1029/ 2001JD001213, 2003.
Aerosol measurements (April 15-17, 2003)
35
-3
PM1.0 Mass Concentration (g m )
30
Nitrate
Water
Organics
Chloride
Sulphate
Ammonium
PAH
25
20
15
10
5
0
12:00 AM
4/15/2003
12:00 PM
12:00 AM
4/16/2003
12:00 PM
12:00 AM
4/17/2003
12:00 PM
Mobile Laboratory Modes of Operation
February 2002
Stationary Sampling
High time resolution point sampling
Quality Assurance for conventional
air monitoring sites
Mobile Sampling/Mapping
Motor vehicle pollution emission ratios
Large source plume identification
Ambient background pollution distributions
Tula
Cuautitlan
Teotihuacan
CENICA
Chase
Detailed mobile source
emissions characterization
Plume tracer flux measurements
Ajusco
Chalco
Formaldehyde Measurements
February 2002
Environmental Education and Outreach
 Visiting Mexican scholars at MIT
 Workshops/symposia on air quality
 Professional development courses on air quality for mid-career
personnel in the government, industry and academic sectors as
well as non-governmental organizations and the media
 Masters Program in Environment and Health Management at
MIT and Harvard School of Public Health (INE-MIT-Harvard
joint program)
 Exchange program between MIT and Mexican institutions
 Establish the Research and Development Network on Air
Quality in Large Cities in Mexico
 Web-based activities for senior high school teachers and
students (with Monterrey Tech, ITESM)
MIT Scenario Analysis
Integrating Bottom-Up and top-Down Analytic Approaches
Three Feasibility “Screens”
– Technical Feasibility
(effective)
– Economic Feasibility
(affordable)
•Pursued through quantitative analysis
– Political Feasibility
(implementable)
•Pursued through qualitative dialogue
“Feasibility” depends in part upon the “Future Story”
•Allows us to identify more robust options
A Diverse Mix of Emissions/Sources
Source: CAM 1998 MCMA Emissions Inventory
Increase in Automobiles per
Capita in Mexico City
Motorization Index in the MCMA
180
160
140
120
Number of Motor
Vehicles per
thousand
inhabitants
100
80
60
40
20
0
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Collaborative Activities with Latin
American Cities
Air quality forecasting training workshops (with
Santiago de Chile and São Paulo)
Transportation/land use and atmospheric
modeling and measurements (with Santiago
de Chile and other Latin American cities)
Inter-American Network for Atmosphere and
Biosphere Studies (IANABIS)
Fleet composition and
operations
 Provide incentives to increase the turnover
rate of the trucks, taxis, colectivos, and
private auto fleets.
 Enforce existing regulations on maximum
age of taxis and colectivos
 Develop incentives to encourage retrofitting
of trucks with emission control devices.
 Continue audits of Vehicle Verification
Testing Stations using on-road test data,
and correct irregularities
Public transportation
• Give priority to the organization of the transportation system
at the metropolitan level, including the improvement and
coordination of all the current modes of transport.
• Increase the use of the metro system by improving service
quality, performance, and personal security.
• Facilitate inter-modal transfers to improve convenience and
speed of public transport.
• Important origins and strategic destinations should be
considered in the planning for the proposed expansion of the
metro network.
Infrastructure/Technology
• Develop infrastructure to enable intercity truck traffic to
bypass the downtown core in order to improve air quality
and reduce congestion.
• Evaluate the feasibility of implementing Intelligent
Transportation Systems (ITS) to improve traffic management
and thereby reducing pollution.
• Consider alternative transportation pricing policies, enabled
by ITS, to reduce the volume of traffic and pollution.
Fuels
• Establish new specifications with lower sulfur content in
gasoline and diesel that enable the introduction of future
cleaner vehicle technologies.
• Develop natural gas as a potential transportation fuel for
urban buses and intra-urban trucks
• Prohibit illegal vehicle conversions to run on LPG without
adequate emission controls
Recommendations (short term)
• Improve Data
– Establish reliable
registration database.
– Improve trip data.
• Improve enforcement
– Taxis < 6 years old (DF),
<10 years old (EM).
– Microbuses <7 years old
– Update traffic accounting
data.
– Registration and license
plates.
– Use remote sensing and
tunnel tests to improve
emission inventory.
– Centralize VVP database.
– VVP certificates up to
date/not counterfeit.
– Make emission and vehicle
data publicly available for
new and used vehicles.
– Increase audits &
evaluations of VVP.
– Traffic regulations.
Recommendations (medium term)
• Control Vehicle Demand
– Limit private vehicle use.
– Restrict taxi numbers
through a permitting
process.
– Regulate colectivo’s, but
encourage their
continuation.
– Create ‘no private vehicle’
areas in DF.
– Discourage single
passenger trips.
• Upgrade the Fleet
– Registration fees less age
sensitive.
– Tighten VVP emission
standards for older
vehicles and inspect trucks
(NOx, PM, PAH)
– Require vehicle retrofit
(gasoline and diesel).
– Upgrade bus fleet.
– Acquire USA standards at
only two year delay.
– Lower sulfur (gasoline and
diesel).
Recommendations (long term)
• Land Use Planning
• Public Transport
– Establish a regional planning
commission with authorities
& financial independence
like SCAQMD.
– Integrate colectivos with
public transport.
– Generate a long term plan
that is consistent with high
mobility and low pollution.
– Encourage park & ride.
– Enforce sanctity of land
reserves.
– Develop and use a
mobility/land use tool for
planning.
– Promote multi-mode
transport fares.
– Improve security and
safety on public transport
and in park & ride lots.
– Give traffic preference to
public transport and multiperson vehicles (dedicated
lanes, etc.)