Aligning Forest Science for Forest Challenges Why Forest Research is Needed Now More than Ever Hal Salwasser College of Forestry Oregon State University August, 2004 AF&PA Dean’s Tour Olympia.
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Aligning Forest Science for Forest Challenges Why Forest Research is Needed Now More than Ever Hal Salwasser College of Forestry Oregon State University August, 2004 AF&PA Dean’s Tour Olympia Washington What We’ll Cover Forest challenges: US forests in a global context Sustainability and forests Different roles for different forests The work ahead Global Forces Population growth Political instability Trade costs Restructuring in forest products industry Widening rich-poor gap Raising of “green” consciousness Rising consumption Global climate change Non-native invasive species Population Growth 6 Bil. in 2000 8-9 Bil by 2050 More demand for every forest resource Intensified wood production on best sites Forest loss to urbanization Growth in temperate forests; depletion in tropical forests Potential overexploitation of boreal forests Political Instability Emerging democracies Tribalism Terrorism and the war on civilization Corruption, illegal logging China and India emerging powers State budgets and ballot measures Severe social fragmentation over public forest values and purposes Trade Costs Assuming global wood supply will meet all future needs is a hypothesis: Market inequities, barriers Fuel prices affect transportation Value of US dollar Shipping security Impacts of growth economies on access to supply Widening Gulf Between Rich and Poor Deforestation in tropics, developing nations Poverty – even pockets in rich nations Unstable developing economies International strife, war over access to resources Urban-rural divide Changes in Forest Products Industries Globally competitive markets Planted forests for wood, fiber (~ 60% in Asia) Partnerships in developing countries Transnational capital flow Increased utilization efficiency Dominance of globally integrated companies Disintegration of forestlands from mills, TIMOs Fragmentation of ownerships Growing Environmental Awareness Broader concept of “the environment” “Green” as a marketing asset Certification gaining ground Allure and illusion of reserves Affluence, power create the tensions: Enable consumption, imports, pollution Enable concern for environment Rising Demand for Forest Products, Values High consumption in First World Rising consumption in developing regions Wood is part of solution to energy drain Rising demand for water, recreation Forests for biodiversity, climate change Global Climate Change Forests are carbon scrubbers, sinks Wood is an alternative to fuel-intensive building materials Potential impacts of carbon credit markets on forest values Impacts on growing zones, productivity, vulnerabilities to invasives Non-native Invasive Species Plants impact on competitive advantage of native species, fuels Insect, pathogen impacts on native species Constraints on trade Impacts on management costs Global Forest Context Forest area: ~ 9.6 bil ac; 50-66% of 1600 ce Forest loss: ~ 23 mil ac/yr in 1990s Population + economic growth = forest loss, but not always - 30 mil ac/yr tropics, + 7 mil ac/yr non-tropics Demands for forest benefits ever growing Water quality, quantity Wood use (+ 0.3 to 0.5%/yr) Biodiversity conservation Carbon storage Recreation, subsistence, cultural uses Global & U.S. Wood Use Ind. wood use rose 40% since 1960: ~ 1.58 BCM in 2000 Fuel wood use > industrial wood use: ~ 1.78 BCM in 2000 Ind. wood use estimated increase 33% by 2050: ~ 2 BCM ~ 75% of global wood and fiber will come from planted forests by mid century or earlier ~ 33% of industrial wood used worldwide now crosses an international boundary from tree to product US imports 27% of sawn wood products consumed; exports associated jobs & impacts US uses 27% of world’s industrial wood; largest per capita US forest and wood choices drive global wood market UN FAO 2003: 2000 data US in Global Context 4.7 People Land 7 Forest Land 5.8 20 NA IUCN Protected Forest Plantations 8.7 8 Wood Volume Ind. Wood Produced 28 Ind. Wood Used 27 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Percent of World Share (UN FAO 2003: 2000 data) US Forests 749 million acres On to Our 2nd Topic Forest challenges: US forests in a global context Sustainability and forests Different roles for different forests The work ahead Where did this Big Word Come From? Sustained yield – forestry, fisheries, wildlife: late 1800s-early 1900s Sustainable development Brundtland Commission 1987 Earth Summit 1992 Agenda 21, Chapter 11 Montreal Process, Santiago Declaration PCSD, Exec. Order, SFM Roundtable SFM Certification/Licensing Systems 1990s State’s adopting MP C&I/SFI/FSC What Does it Mean? Latin: sus = up; tenere = to hold The ability to: Hold up Support, supply with sustenance Keep in existence, prolong Persevere, endure, withstand Use without degrading Sustainability of What? Natural Resources? Economies? Institutions? Ecosystems? Communities? Human Well Being? All of the Above Applied to Forests The suite of forest policies, plans and practices that sustains forest conditions – diversity, resilience, productivity -- for the values, uses, products, and services desired by society and landowners. Hal’s definition Montreal Process Criteria Biodiversity Productive capacity Ecosystem health Soil and water conservation 7 criteria 67 indicators Global carbon storage, cycle Socio-economic benefits Legal, institutional, economic policies Other approaches to SFM – ATFS, MUSY, FPFO, SFI, FSC, CSA, ISO, ITTO, Tarapoto, Helsinki: Criteria, standards, objectives, principles and indicators for all are working hypotheses; being tested and refined through use; the dust has definitely not settled yet. SFM Issues Who makes the rules, sets the targets? Mixed ownership landscapes Changing ownerships, fragmentation Compensation for public benefits Consistency in standards, reciprocity Scientific basis for standards -- NCSSF Tailoring for regional variation, purposes Elitism, dueling systems Dealing with consumption US is NOT a Global Model U.S. is not on a path that others can follow and be globally sustainable; Preserve our resources, use the resources of others’, high use of non-renewables; Must alter our course and “close the loop” on production and consumption of resources for quality of life. What makes us think we can do it for forests? Learning from the Past To chart a path to the future … What We Know About Forests Complex, dynamic ecosystems: time and space Management/conservation driven by demands Demand for wood & all other forest values continues to grow Must yield value to stay forested, if private Local choices can have global transfer effects Forestry, technology and conservation can and have restored and enhanced forests, their products and uses, e.g., America’s Tree Farms, America’s family forests, Tillamook State Forest, Green Mountain NF, engineered wood products, eastern wilderness areas Benefits Beyond Wood Water: from all forests Energy: wood as fuel, wood as low energy material, urban trees for energy conservation Recreation: especially from public forests Carbon stores: in the forest and in wood products Biodiversity: reservoirs and sources Minerals: domestic sources, reserves Ecosystem services: mitigate global change Let’s Talk About Roles Forest challenges: US forests in a global context Sustainability and forests Different roles for different forests The work ahead The “Whole Forest” View All Forests: from urban forests and tree farms to wilderness and parks All Forest Products: from wood and water to wild things and wild places All Forest Practices: from preservation and protection to restoration and production All Forest Uses: from recreation and learning to jobs and subsistence All Forest Values: from carbon stores and jobs to sources of life and inspiration Breadth of Sustainable Forest Management Sustainable forest management varies by forest type, ownership, primary purpose Forest purposes: Wood and fiber production Multiple resource values/uses Reserves, nature preservation Urban and community forests Wood Production Forests Most of world’s future wood will come from planted forests: ~ 33% now, ~ 75% by 2050, from ~ 10-20% of global forest area Primary purposes: Grow trees for wood, fiber Increase forest value to owner Management challenges: Thrive in global markets Increase wood yield: < 2X over natural Reduce environmental impacts Improve wood quality, consistency Produce high return on investment Maintain social license to operate Most Productive Forest Lands in US … are in the hands of 9-10,000,000 family, tribal, and industrial private sector forest stewards! Site Class by Ownership Million Acres by Site Class in U.S. (annual growth in cu ft/ac) 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 = >120 2 = 85-120 3 = 50-85 4 = 20-50 5 = 0-20 National Other Forest Family Forest Public Industry Forests Source: Powell et al. (1993) Tables 5 and 6 Multi-resource Forests Most of the world’s accessible forests have multiple resource purposes < 40% of global forest area? Primary purposes: Meet diverse landowner objectives Increase forest value to owner(s) Challenges: Optimize multi-resource outcomes Produce multiple benefits for acceptable costs Differentiate products Finance non-market benefits Reserve Forests Parks, wilderness, natural areas: 12.4% worldwide in 2000 < 40-50% of global forest area? Primary purposes: Sustain at-risk species, natural processes, “wild” ecosystems Recreation, cultural uses Management challenges: Minimize human use impacts Restore, promote wildness, naturalness Ameliorate effects of invasive species, air pollution Achieve goals for least costs Urban, Community Forests Where 80% of US people live Primary purposes: Attractive communities, neighborhoods Conserve resources: water, energy Increase property values Backyard wildlife habitats Management challenges: Safety, infrastructure impacts Minimize sprawl and resource use Minimize invasive species escapes Reserve Forests: Mostly federal, some state, tribal, private Wood Production Forests: Mostly industry, family, some state, tribal Forest Sustainability Environmental Benefits Urban, Community Forests: Forests where people live Multi-resource Forests: Mostly state, tribal, some family, some federal Ownership Matters Multi-resource Wood Production Reserve Industry, TIMO * * Private, large Family, ENGO Tribes State Federal * Streamside zones, leave trees, HECV = mini or micro reserves Oregon’s Current Balance Oregon Forest Area by Primary Purpose Wood Production 36% Reserve 31% Multi-resource* 33% * This includes 2.5 million acres of federal matrix and AMAs which currently are not fully serving their designated purpose. If 1 million of those acres move to reserve class it increases reserves by 3.6% and decreases multi-resource by 3.6% Let’s Talk About the Future Forest challenges: US forests in a global context Sustainability and forests Different roles for different forests The work ahead SFM Challenges Keep forest lands in forest uses for forest values Use and shape global forces to influence future Meet people’s forest resource needs Improve management and conservation Invest in new knowledge and technologies: New R&D for sustainability Enhance lifelong learning and extended education Develop incentives for sustainable production and conservation Past Research Modern harvesting systems Reforestation technologies Growth and yield enhancement Water quality, fish and wildlife Rx Pest management strategies Fire management strategies Product efficiencies, new products Sustained-yield planning tools Today’s R&D Agenda for Tomorrow’s Forests Harvest practices Fire, pests, forest health Productivity practices Roads Diversity practices Water, fish, wildlife New wood products Non-native invasive species Non-wood uses Policy and economics Forests and climate Communications Urban-forest interface Risk assessment Tree genomics, biotech Adaptive problem solving Integrating technology with tradition Research Alignment Declining capacity (NRC 2003) Need for reinvestment, refocus on priorities (Blue Ribbon Panel 2004) Engage governments, academia, forest cluster in R&D for common goal of global competitive advantage while achieving optimal outcomes for forest conservation (heresy in the US!) Some Outcomes Increased efficiency of wood production; roi Increased wood utilization and value; roi Increased use of renewable resources over non-renewables Increased capacity to handle surprises Increased environmental performance of all forests Stronger science base for SFM systems More knowledgeable citizenry