Transcript Item #7 The 2006 Constrained Long-Range Transportation Plan: Plan Performance Ronald F. Kirby Director of Transportation Planning October 18, 2006

Item #7
The 2006 Constrained Long-Range
Transportation Plan:
Plan Performance
Ronald F. Kirby
Director of Transportation Planning
October 18, 2006
The TPB Vision
• The Vision is a comprehensive set of
goals, objectives and strategies guiding
the update of the Plan.
• The SAFETEA-LU Planning Factors
are included in the Vision.
• The Plan’s performance will be
assessed in relation to the TPB Vision
policy goals and objectives.
2
New Projects and Studies Added in 2006
• District
– Anacostia Bridges
– Anacostia Light Rail
• Maryland
– 201 Widening
– Cross-County Connector
• Virginia
– VA 28 Interchange at I-66
– I-95/395 HOT Lane Study
3
New Projects Added in 2006
Maryland
Virginia
District
4
Selected Project Highlights
5
New Bicycle/Pedestrian Plan Adopted
6
Other Ongoing Activities
• Demand Management
– Commuter Connections
• System Management
– Traffic Signal Optimization
– Regional Transportation Coordination Program
– Emergency Planning
• Pedestrian and Bicycle Safety
– StreetSmart Campaign
7
Financial Plan
Forecasted expenditures constrained to
expected revenues, but construction costs have
been increasing
Expenditures Focusing on Operations
and Preservation, Transit
10
Construction Costs Are Increasing
•
Street and highway construction costs have gone up the most drastically over
the past few years
The graph shows the producer price index rates over the past ten years as indexed
11
WMATA Still Seeking Capital Funding
• Metro Matters
– State and local commitments to
fund capital needs through
2010
• “Davis Bill”
– When passed with local
funding, will finance capital
needs beyond 2010
• Ridership Constraint
– The Plan does not assume the
“Davis Bill”
12
Land Use and Population Changes
Summary of Round 7.0a of the Cooperative
Land-Use Forecasts
Population and Employment Growth
• But employment is growing faster than population
14
Growth is Fastest in Outer Suburbs
Urban core defined as The District, Arlington and Alexandria. Inner suburbs defined as Fairfax county in Virginia and Montgomery and
Prince George’s counties. Outer Suburbs defined as Loudoun, Prince William, and Stafford counties in Virginia; Frederick, Calvert and
Charles counties in Maryland.
15
Travel Growth and Congestion
How will the characteristics of travel in the
region change between 2002 and 2030?
Congestion Will Worsen
• VMT Per Capita increases 3% from 24 miles per day in 2002
17
Greatest Congestion in Inner Suburbs
•
The Inner Suburbs will have the greatest number of congested lane
miles, while the Outer Suburbs experience the greatest increase
Urban core defined as The District, Arlington and Alexandria. Inner suburbs defined as Fairfax county in Virginia and Montgomery and
Prince George’s counties. Outer Suburbs defined as Loudoun, Prince William, and Stafford counties in Virginia; Frederick, Calvert and
Charles counties in Maryland.
18
Metro Platforms and Trains Will Be Packed
•
Morning Peak-Hour Transit Congestion: 2000 and 2030
2000
Congested
Highly Congested
2030
19
Congested: Over 105 people per rail car, Highly Congested: Over 120 people per rail car
Regional Growth and Activity Clusters
Transit Supports Activity Clusters…
21
Employment and Households In Clusters
• Share of jobs inside clusters remains the same while share of
households increases.
22
Transit Share Grows in Clusters
•
Mode share of transit by job location
23
Vast Majority of Transit Work Trips are to
Activity Clusters
In both 2002 and 2030:
• Over 90% of transit work trips are to jobs in
activity clusters
• Over 70% are to the three core activity
clusters.
24
Summary
• While meeting federal requirements, the Plan
still falls short of the Vision
–
–
–
–
Congestion is getting worse
Costs continue to rise
Financial constraint limits both highway and transit capacity
Funding shares shifting towards tolls and local funds
• Transit users work primarily in activity clusters
– Share of jobs in activity clusters steady at 72 percent
• Further analysis of the Plan for Vision goals and
objectives is underway
25