Transcript POPULATION PROJECTION OF CHINA Feng Nailin Department of Population & Employment Statistics National Bureau of Statistics of China.

POPULATION PROJECTION
OF CHINA
Feng Nailin
Department of Population & Employment Statistics
National Bureau of Statistics of China
Population Projection of China
General Condition of Population
Projection
Method of Projection
Results of Projection
Ⅰ.General Condition of Population
Projection
1. Population projection of previous 30 years
2. Role of population projection
⑴ One important source to draw up
program of development of population and
social-economics
⑵ Base of evaluation of population
statistics
One example: Under enumeration of youth and young
adults – Comparison of sampling survey and evaluation
Evaluationfemale,
male
Surveyfemale, male
Ⅱ. Method of Projection
Cohort-component Method : Produce projection of
age structure
1. Basic steps
2. Base data
3. Assumptions about births, deaths and
migration
4. Time Range
5. Scenario of projection
1. Basic steps (example: chart of projection of
urban-rural population)
Estimation of age, death,
birth and migration
T=T+1
Urban age-sex
of year T
Urban pattern of
death
Urban age
structure
Migration
pattern: R to U
Urban pattern
of birth
Urban
deaths
Urban births
Urban-rural age of year
T+1
Rural age-sex
of year T
T=T+1
Cohort-component Method
1、Birth
(出生人口预测)
49 population prediction
B (t )   ( Fi (t )  Fi (t  1))  0.5  ATFRi (t )
i 15
ATFRi (t )  BTFRi (t )  TFR(t )
ATFRi (t )
BTFRi (t )
TFR(t )
Fi (t )
B (t )
sex(t )
49
 BTFR(t )
i 15
i
1
t年分年龄别的生育率i为15…49 岁
t年分年龄别标准化的生育率 i为15…49 岁
t年的总和生育率（出生率控制参数）
t 年i岁年龄别育龄妇女人数
t 年出生人数
男性出生人数 Bnan (t )  B(t )  sex (t )
女性出生人数 Bwomen (t )  B(t )  (1  sex (t ))
出生婴儿性别比
Cohort-component Method
2、0 year old population prediction ( 0岁人口预测)
P0 (t )
t 年0岁人口，分男女性别
SR0 (t )
t 年出生婴儿留存率（0岁留存率）
L(0) 生命表中0岁的平均生存人数，分男女性别
I (i) 生命表中i岁的留存人数， I (0)  100000
SR0 (t )  L(0) / I (0)
P0 (t )  SR0 (t )  B(t )
按男女婴儿留存率计算
t 年出生人数
（分男女）
Cohort-component Method
3、Projection of population of all ages (各年龄人口预测)
100
P (t  1)  P (t )   Pi1 (t )  SRi1 (t )  Q(t  1)
1
1
0
i i
100
100
P (t  1)  P (t )   Pi (t )  SR (t )   Pi 2 (t )  QRi2 (t )
2
2
0
2
i 1
2
i
i 0
Pi 2 (t ) t年乡村分性别i岁年龄别人数
SRi1 (t ) t年城镇生命表分性别i岁年龄别留存率
SRi2 (t ) t年乡村生命表分性别i岁年龄别留存率
P1 (t ) t 年为预测城镇人数
P 2 (t ) t 年为预测乡村人数
2. Base data --Based on 2000 census
⑴Urban population by age-sex, 2000
⑵Urban survival rate by age-sex or model life
table, 2001-2050
⑶Urban age-specific fertility rate, 2001-2050
⑷Net migration rate by urban-rural, 2001-2050
⑸Net migration rate by province, 2001-2050
International migration may ignore in national
population projection.
3. Assumptions of deaths, births and
migration
⑴ Deaths--Survivors by sex in life table
⑵Births -- Proportion of age-specific fertility
in TFR by urban-rural
⑶ Migration
0.04
male
female
0.03
0.02
0.01
age
100
92
96
84
88
76
80
68
72
60
64
52
56
44
48
36
40
28
32
20
24
12
16
8
4
0.00
0
migration rate by age
Assumption of migration from rural to urban
4. Time range
Short term: 10 years less
Mid-term: 10-20 years
Long term:•20 years above
Population projection of China involves in
short，medium and long term
5. Scenario of projection
⑴ Life expectancy at birth
Comparison of Life Expectancy at Birth of National Population with Different Scenario: 2001-2050
Years
Low
Total
Male
Medium
Female
Total
Male
High
Female
Total
Male
Female
2000
71.4
69.6
73.3
71.4
69.6
73.3
71.4
69.6
73.3
2005
73.0
70.8
75.3
73.0
70.8
75.3
73.0
70.8
75.3
2010
73.8
71.8
76.0
74.2
72.1
76.4
74.5
72.4
76.8
2015
74.7
72.8
76.7
75.4
73.4
77.5
76.1
74.0
78.2
2020
75.4
73.6
77.4
76.5
74.5
78.6
77.5
75.5
79.6
2025
76.2
74.4
78.1
77.6
75.7
79.6
79.0
77.1
80.9
2030
77.0
75.2
78.7
78.7
76.7
80.7
80.2
78.3
82.2
2035
77.6
75.8
79.4
79.6
77.7
81.6
81.4
79.4
83.4
2040
78.3
76.4
80.1
80.6
78.6
82.6
82.6
80.5
84.6
2045
78.9
77.0
80.8
81.4
79.5
83.5
83.6
81.5
85.6
2050
79.4
77.6
81.5
82.3
80.3
84.4
84.7
82.5
86.6
⑵ TFR by urban-rural
TFR by Urban-Rural with Different Scenario: 2001-2050
Low
Years
Medium
High
Total
Urban
Rural
Total
Urban
Rural
Total
Urban
Rural
2001-2005
1.66
1.22
2.09
1.66
1.22
2.09
1.66
1.22
2.09
2006-2010
1.65
1.20
2.10
1.66
1.20
2.11
1.66
1.21
2.11
2011-2015
1.60
1.18
2.02
1.68
1.26
2.10
1.74
1.37
2.10
2016-2020
1.54
1.16
1.93
1.72
1.33
2.10
1.84
1.59
2.10
2021-2025
1.48
1.13
1.83
1.75
1.40
2.10
1.95
1.80
2.10
2026-2030
1.42
1.11
1.74
1.79
1.48
2.10
2.06
2.02
2.10
2031-2035
1.40
1.10
1.70
1.80
1.50
2.10
2.10
2.10
2.10
2036-2040
1.40
1.10
1.70
1.80
1.50
2.10
2.10
2.10
2.10
2041-2045
1.40
1.10
1.70
1.80
1.50
2.10
2.10
2.10
2.10
2046-2050
1.40
1.10
1.70
1.80
1.50
2.10
2.10
2.10
2.10
⑶Urbanization Level
LevelⅠ-- 60% in 2030; Level Ⅱ-- 65% in 2030
Urbanization Level with Different Scenario
Years
Annual growth rate （%）
Percentage point of annual growth
Level Ⅰ
Level Ⅱ
Level Ⅰ
Level Ⅱ
2001-2005
4.13
4.13
1.4
1.4
2006-2010
2.52
2.65
0.9
1.0
2011-2015
2.10
2.63
0.8
1.0
2016-2020
1.67
2.02
0.7
0.9
2021-2025
1.32
1.56
0.6
0.8
2026-2030
1.08
1.24
0.6
0.7
2031-2035
0.88
0.99
0.5
0.7
2036-2040
0.68
0.74
0.5
0.6
2041-2045
0.44
0.48
0.5
0.6
2046-2050
0.21
0.23
0.4
0.5
Integrated Scenario (example)
6 Integrated Scenario of Population Projection
with Life Expectancy at Birth of Mid-level, 2030
TFR
Low （1.4）
Mid （1.8）
High （2.1）
LevelⅠof urbanization
（60%）
LevelⅡof urbanization
（65%）
Low TFR and level Ⅰ
Mid TFR and level Ⅰ
High TFR and level Ⅰ
Low TFR and level Ⅱ
Mid TFR and level Ⅱ
High TFR and level Ⅱ
Ⅲ. Results of Projection--Based on 2000
Census
1. Trend of Total Population
2. Trend of Population Growth
3. Trend of Age Structure
1. Total Population Projection
Different Scenario Population of Urban-Rural with Different TFR
Scenario (LOW Medium High)
(in 100 million)
Level Ⅰ(60%)
Level Ⅱ(65%)
年份
Low
Medium
High
Low
Medium
High
2009
13.35
13.35
13.35
13.35
13.35
13.35
2010
13.42
13.42
13.42
13.42
13.42
13.42
2011
13.49
13.49
13.50
13.49
13.49
13.50
2012
13.56
13.57
13.58
13.56
13.57
13.58
2013
13.62
13.64
13.66
13.62
13.64
13.66
2014
13.69
13.72
13.74
13.68
13.71
13.74
2015
13.75
13.79
13.82
13.74
13.78
13.82
2020
13.95
14.07
14.18
13.92
14.04
14.16
2025
14.00
14.24
14.45
13.96
14.19
14.42
2030
13.94
14.32
14.66
13.88
14.26
14.63
2035
13.77
14.31
14.81
13.70
14.24
14.78
2040
13.51
14.22
14.90
13.42
14.13
14.87
2045
13.14
14.04
14.93
13.02
13.92
14.89
2050
12.65
13.75
14.87
12.51
13.60
14.83
2. Population Growth Projection
(1) Births
Average Annual Births and Crude Birth Rate
Annual births (in 10 million)
Years
Low
Mid
High
CBR (‰)
Low
Mid
High
2001-2005
1690
1690
1690
13.1
13.1
13.1
2006-2010
1606
1610
1614
12.1
12.2
12.2
2011-2015
1600
1680
1749
11.8
12.3
12.8
2016-2020
1414
1579
1723
10.2
11.3
12.3
2021-2025
1200
1429
1635
8.6
10.1
11.4
2026-2030
1067
1360
1632
7.6
9.5
11.2
2031-2035
1006
1329
1646
7.3
9.3
11.2
2036-2040
969
1319
1685
7.1
9.2
11.3
2041-2045
890
1270
1691
6.7
9.0
11.3
2046-2050
788
1190
1667
6.1
8.6
11.2
(2) Projection on Urban-rural Population
Different Scenario Population of Urban-Rural and TFR with MidScenario
(in 100 million)
Level Ⅰ(60%)
Level Ⅱ(65%)
Total
Urban
Rural
% of
Urban
Total
Urban
Rural
% of
Urban
2009
13.35
6.22
7.13
0.466
13.35
6.22
7.13
0.466
2010
13.42
6.36
7.06
0.474
13.42
6.41
7.01
0.477
2011
13.49
6.51
6.98
0.482
13.49
6.59
6.90
0.489
2012
13.57
6.65
6.92
0.490
13.57
6.77
6.79
0.499
2013
13.64
6.79
6.85
0.498
13.64
6.95
6.69
0.510
2014
13.72
6.93
6.79
0.505
13.71
7.13
6.58
0.520
2015
13.79
7.06
6.73
0.512
13.78
7.29
6.48
0.529
2020
14.07
7.67
6.40
0.545
14.04
8.06
5.98
0.574
2025
14.24
8.19
6.05
0.575
14.19
8.71
5.48
0.614
2030
14.32
8.64
5.67
0.604
14.26
9.27
4.99
0.650
2035
14.31
9.03
5.28
0.631
14.24
9.74
4.50
0.684
2040
14.22
9.34
4.88
0.657
14.13
10.10
4.02
0.715
2045
14.04
9.55
4.49
0.680
13.92
10.35
3.57
0.744
2050
13.75
9.65
4.10
0.702
13.60
10.47
3.13
0.770
Years
⑵ Urban-rural Population
Change of Urban-Rural Population of China：1950-2050
Rapid
Urbanizatio
160000
n?
140000
rural
urban
10 thousand
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
(3) Growth of Urban Population
2500
Urban growth
Migrants
Natural growth
10 thousand
2000
1500
1000
500
0
-500
year
3. Age Structure Projection
(1) Dependency Ratio
Average Dependency ratio, 2001-2050
（Mid-Scenario, Level Ⅰof Urbanization )
0-14
（100 million）
65 over
（100 million）
Total dependency
ratio %
Youth
dependency ratio
%
Old-age
dependency ratio
%
2001-2005
2.80
0.97
41.3
30.7
10.6
2006-2010
2.51
1.10
37.4
25.9
11.4
2011-2015
2.42
1.29
37.4
24.4
13.0
2016-2020
2.40
1.62
40.5
24.1
16.3
2021-2025
2.34
2.00
44.0
23.7
20.3
2026-2030
2.21
2.34
46.7
22.7
24.1
2031-2035
2.07
2.92
53.5
22.2
31.3
2036-2040
2.00
3.43
61.4
22.6
38.8
2041-2045
1.96
3.65
65.8
23.0
42.8
2046-2050
1.90
3.77
69.2
23.2
46.0
Years
(1) Dependency Ratio
Trend of Dependency Ratio, 2001-2050
Dependency Ratio
（%）
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Years
Youth
Old-age
Total
人
口
红
利
(2) Working-age Population
Population Aged 15-64
（Mid-Scenario, Level Ⅰof Urbanization )
% of Total
Population aged 15-64（100million）
Years
Total
Urban
Rural
Total
Urban
Rural
2009
9.74
4.80
4.94
73.0
77.2
69.3
2010
9.81
4.91
4.89
73.1
77.2
69.4
2011
9.86
5.02
4.84
73.1
77.2
69.3
2012
9.91
5.13
4.78
73.0
77.1
69.1
2013
9.95
5.23
4.72
72.9
77.0
68.9
2014
9.96
5.32
4.64
72.6
76.8
68.3
2015
9.96
5.40
4.56
72.3
76.5
67.8
2020
9.90
5.77
4.13
70.3
75.2
64.5
2025
9.85
6.09
3.76
69.2
74.3
62.2
2030
9.58
6.22
3.36
66.9
72.0
59.2
2035
9.12
6.19
2.93
0.63.7
68.5
55.5
2040
8.68
6.08
2.60
0.61.0
65.1
53.2
2045
8.41
6.02
2.39
59.9
63.0
53.3
2050
8.06
5.85
2.21
58.6
60.6
53.9
(2) Working-age Population
20
19
20
17
20
15
Growth
Growth (10thousand)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
20
13
20
09
20
07
20
03
20
05
Aged 16-64
20
11
Lewis
Point?
102000
100000
98000
96000
94000
92000
90000
88000
86000
84000
82000
20
01
Pop.aged16-64(10thousand)
Population Aged16-64
(3) Elder Population
Population Aged 65+ and 60+
（Mid-Scenario, Level Ⅰof Urbanization )
Years
Aged 65+（in 100 million）
Aged 60+（in 100 million）
Total
Urban
Rural
Total
Urban
Rural
2001-2005
0.97
0.34
0.63
1.40
0.49
0.91
2006-2010
1.10
0.41
0.69
1.62
0.60
1.01
2011-2015
1.29
0.51
0.78
1.99
0.79
1.20
2016-2020
1.62
0.67
0.95
2.41
1.03
1.38
2021-2025
2.00
0.89
1.11
2.81
1.31
1.51
2026-2030
2.34
1.13
1.21
3.47
1.74
1.73
2031-2035
2.92
1.52
1.40
4.07
2.22
1.85
2036-2040
3.43
1.94
1.49
4.37
2.59
1.78
2041-2045
3.65
2.24
1.41
4.57
2.95
1.63
2051-2050
3.77
2.52
1.25
4.84
3.30
1.54
(3) Elder Population
Annual Growth of Population Aged 65+
Rapid Growth
of Elder！！
1400
Total
Urban
Rural
1200
10 thousand
1000
800
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
Year
(4) School-age Population
Population Aged 6-22
（Mid-Scenario, Level Ⅰof Urbanization )
(in 100 million)
Years
Total
Aged 6-11
Aged 12-14
Aged 15-17
Aged 18-22
2001-2005
3.57
1.11
0.69
0.72
1.04
2006-2010
3.34
1.00
0.54
0.61
1.19
2011-2015
2.95
0.96
0.50
0.52
0.97
2016-2020
2.77
0.96
0.48
0.49
0.85
2021-2025
2.72
0.97
0.48
0.47
0.80
2026-2030
2.66
0.90
0.49
0.49
0.79
2031-2035
2.56
0.83
0.45
0.47
0.81
2036-2040
2.41
0.80
0.41
0.43
0.77
2041-2045
2.29
0.79
0.40
0.40
0.70
2046-2050
2.23
0.78
0.39
0.39
0.67
(4) School-age Population
Population of Schooling Age Specified by Nursery, Primary,
Junior Middle, High Middle Schools and University
14000
Yrs0-5 and 611 close to
100M？
12000
0-5岁
6-11岁
12-14岁
15-17岁
10 thousand
10000
18-22岁
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2001
2008
2015
2022
2029
Year
2036
2043
2050
(5) Population Pyramid
China,2000
90+
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
China, 2010 (Projection)
90+
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
-0.02
0.05
-0.08
0.16
M
F
-0.25
0.38
-0.57
0.69
-0.98
1.04
-1.39
1.36
-1.711.58
-1.901.76
-2.59 2.41
-3.47 3.29
-3.34 3.08
-4.45
4.19
-5.18
4.90
-4.79
4.54
-3.87
3.69
-4.21
3.96
-5.16
4.74
-3.99
3.45
-3.70 3.07
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
-0.04
0.10
-0.14
0.25
M
F
-0.41
0.56
-0.79
0.93
-1.19
1.24
-1.50
1.49
-2.20 2.13
-3.07 2.98
-3.02 2.83
-4.08
3.88
-4.79
4.55
-4.46
4.21
-3.61
3.42
-3.94
3.67
-4.84
4.41
-3.74
3.24
-3.46 2.87
-3.13 2.95
-3.01 2.85
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
China, 2030 (Projection)
90+
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
-9 -7 -5
China, 2050 (Projection)
-0.12
0.25
-0.31
0.52
M
F
-0.87
1.16
-1.782.08
-2.142.24
-3.28 3.32
-4.09
4.03
-3.94
3.82
-3.25 3.14
-3.59 3.39
-4.44
4.09
-3.45 3.01
-3.21 2.67
-2.91 2.75
-2.79 2.65
-2.93 2.79
-2.77 2.63
-2.52 2.39
-2.41 2.28
-3 -1
1
3
90+
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
5
7
9
-0.35
0.74
-1.08
1.71
M
-2.27 2.90
-2.93 3.28
-2.82 2.95
-3.38 3.34
-4.35
4.12
-3.46 3.07
-3.25 2.75
-2.97 2.84
-2.87 2.74
-3.02 2.88
-2.86 2.73
-2.61 2.48
-2.49 2.37
-2.44 2.32
-2.43 2.31
-2.34 2.23
-2.20 2.10
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
F
5
7
9
Urban of China, 2010 (Projection)
90+
80-84
70-74
60-64
50-54
40-44
30-34
20-24
10-14
0-4
90+
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
-0.04
0.08
-0.12
0.20
M
F
-0.33
0.44
-0.64
0.76
-0.94
1.05
-1.15
1.21
-1.77
1.74
-2.672.55
-2.97 2.71
-4.27 3.83
-5.28
4.70
-5.47
4.96
-4.86
4.58
-5.26
5.10
-4.74 4.36
-2.902.48
-2.692.29
-2.732.59
-2.842.70
-9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1
3
5
Rural of China, 2010 (Projection)
7
9
-0.05
0.11
-0.17
0.30
M
F
-0.47
0.67
-0.92
1.08
-1.42
1.41
-1.82
1.75
-2.592.49
-3.44 3.37
-3.07 2.94
-3.91 3.92
-4.35 4.41
-3.54 3.54
-2.482.38
-2.742.38
-4.92
4.45
-4.51 3.92
-4.16 3.40
-3.49 3.28
-3.16 2.99
-9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1
3
5
7
9
Urban of China, 2050 (Projection)
90+
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
90+
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
-0.31
0.64
-0.95
1.41
M
F
-2.022.43
-2.83 3.04
-3.01 3.06
-3.74 3.68
-4.53
4.16
-3.62 3.11
-3.46 2.85
-3.24 3.02
-3.18 2.97
-3.28 3.08
-3.02 2.85
-2.66 2.54
-2.43 2.31
-2.232.11
-2.172.06
-2.102.00
-1.991.90
-9 -7 -5 -3 -1
1
3
5
Rural of China, 2050 (Projection)
7
9
-0.42
0.99
-1.402.44
M
-2.87 4.01
-3.16 3.83
-2.40 2.67
-2.52 2.52
-3.93
4.01
-3.09 2.97
-2.76 2.50
-2.35 2.42
-2.152.20
-2.42 2.44
-2.49 2.43
-2.47 2.35
-2.64 2.51
-2.95 2.84
-3.03 2.89
-2.91 2.77
-2.69 2.56
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
F
5
7
9
Thanks!