POPGROUP The Derived Forecasts module of the POPGROUP software Ludi Simpson, University of Manchester BSPS day meeting on household projection models, 16th July 2012, LSE Slide 1
Download ReportTranscript POPGROUP The Derived Forecasts module of the POPGROUP software Ludi Simpson, University of Manchester BSPS day meeting on household projection models, 16th July 2012, LSE Slide 1
POPGROUP The Derived Forecasts module of the POPGROUP software Ludi Simpson, University of Manchester BSPS day meeting on household projection models, 16th July 2012, LSE Slide 1 UK industry standard for sub-national areas POPGROUP • An integrated demographic model for planning and research – – – – – population, households, labour force, disability, … local and central government information small area and District, District, County/Region/National a demographic framework, data to fill it, and an analysis tool – historical series and new census data – estimates and forecasts – official projections and user’s own scenarios • Excel platform Slide 2 POPGROUP users 2012 Local authorities POPGROUP 90+ organisations • Mainly UK public sector • Welsh Assembly for LA projections • Scottish User Group supported by NRS • Educational license: free for teaching • Commercial sector use growing: the industry standard for UK local planning Slide 3 Popgroup management POPGROUP • Developed collaboratively – Origins: 6 local authorities co-funded in 1999 – Ownership: Local Government Association since 2009 – £1500 POPGROUP, £1500 Derived Forecasts, one-off price • Data Modules £450 a year, replicate official projections – Programming and technical support • [email protected] • Ludi Simpson technical specification / support – Steering Committee – users, and Wales/Scotland reps, • Andrew Rudd [email protected] – Independent user group • Charlotte Devereux [email protected] – Web site and email discussion list, http://www.ccsr.ac.uk/popgroup/ – Training – online, 2-day annual course, manuals Slide 4 POPGROUP & policy scenarios POPGROUP - Not in households Population x Activity rates Labour force x Headship rates Revised migration Compare with jobs supply Households Compare with housing supply Sharing, Vacancy rates, Second homes, Housing land Unemployment, Commuting, Jobs creation Slide 5 Presentation POPGROUP Demographic framework • POPGROUP population forecasts framework • Derived Forecasts framework – UK household projections frameworks • Demonstration of Derived Forecasts model setup Data and analysis • Demonstration of a household projections Data Module • Demonstration of reports from a household projection • Demonstration of a housing-led population forecast Slide 6 POPGROUP population forecasts framework POPGROUP • Standard cohort component methodology – Single year of age, to 90+ – Gross migration with two external areas – Schedules of births, deaths, migration may change over time – Special populations can be separate, eg Armed Forces • Projection of multiple ‘Groups’, named by user – Districts in a Region, national areas, small areas within a district, ethnic groups within a district • Accepts counts and rates, estimating the missing items – Counts take precedence: initial rates are re-estimated: – Time series of past data and forecasts – ‘Forecasts’ with past population provide estimated rates and migration flows Slide 7 Derived Forecasts framework POPGROUP Households = Population (adjusted to deduct those not in households) * age-sex-specific headship rate (for each household type) In defence of the ‘headship rates’ approach • Household types can include size of household (Scotland, Wales) • ‘Head’ can be a reference person, independent of changing cultural norms (England, Wales, Scotland) • The same approach can use ‘membership rates’ in which nonheads are included in the output (Wales) – The number of households is derived by dividing by the number of people in a household type by its household size Slide 8 POPGROUP Derived Forecasts framework Derived unit Adjustment to population Household (England) Categories Rate Factor Communal 17 household establishments types Household representative - Household (Wales) Communal 12, HH size establishments included to 5+ Household membership Household size Household (Scotland) Communal 7, HH size establishments included to 3+ Household representative - Labour force None Economically active Economic activity - Disability None Motor, sight, … Disability rate - … Slide 9 POPGROUP Derived Forecasts framework Population Forecast Forecast Population Population forecast by age and sex by age and sex Derived Category Rates By age and sex (e.g. headship rates, disability rates) Derived Category Forecast Forecast for Derived Categories (e.g. Households, disability) D a,s,u,y,d,g = P a,s,u,y,g * R a,s,u,y,d,g / 100 D =Derived Category Forecast P =Population ‘at risk’ Forecast R =Derived Category Rates a = age-group s = sex u = Sub-population y = year d = derived category g = group (usually an area, but can be an ethnic group or social group) Slide 10 POPGROUP Derived Forecasts POPGROUP Derived Forecasts – Model Setup Model Selections Model Type Base Year CLG 2008 Household Back 2001 Age / Sex groups Derived Units Modif y Age / Sex groups Choose a set of Age / Sex groups CLG 2008 Household Run Setup Modif y categories Choose type of Derived Unit rates View CLG 2008 Household representatives Label for Age / Sex groups is… Label for Derived Unit rates is… CLG 2008 Household CLG 2008 Household representatives View Choose Derived Units Population Adjustment Households Choose a name for the Final Derived Units Make Population Adjustment . . . . . Label for Derived Units is… Label for Population Adjustment Households Not in Households Validation Adjustment using . . . . . Value of each rate Adjustment method . . . . Sum across categories Modif y Calculations on Derived Units Sub-Populations Label for size factor Use Sub-Populations . . . . . . . . . . Label for the Sub-Populations Label for Final Derived Units after factors Slide 11 POPGROUP Slide 12 POPGROUP Slide 13 POPGROUP Slide 14 Derived Forecasts Summary Report 2010-based hou POPGROUP Households - All Persons - All Ages Glasgow and Clyde Valley Category of Households 1 adult male 1 adult female 2 adults 1 adult, 1 child 1 adult, 2+ children 2+ adults, 1+ children 3+ adults Total Private household population Population / Households 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 139,250 171,075 213,238 42,404 27,144 139,321 67,996 141,758 172,910 214,177 43,210 27,314 136,278 67,067 145,385 176,259 216,708 44,344 27,656 133,740 66,539 148,998 179,571 219,212 45,428 28,028 131,318 65,931 152,457 182,776 221,609 46,418 28,408 128,862 65,267 155,783 185,750 223,808 47,341 28,831 126,707 64,510 800,428 2010 - 2025 802,715 810,631 818,485 825,797 832,730 1,739,793 2.17 1,744,311 2.17 1,749,414 2.16 Population Rate Effect 1,754,388 1,758,951 Effect 2.14 2.13 52,284 38,467 1,762,841 2.12 Decomposition of Change Glasgow and Clyde Valley East Dunbartonshire Category of Households 1 adult male 1 adult female 2 adults 1 adult, 1 child 1 adult, 2+ children 2+ adults, 1+ children 3+ adults East Dunbartonshire 2010 East Renfrewshire 4,491 Glasgow City 8,160 Inverclyde 13,891 North Lanarkshire 1,267 Renfrewshire 933 South Lanarkshire 9,783 West Dunbartonshire 4,486 2011 2012 4,584 8,286 14,073 1,297 940 9,550 4,440 4,680 8,434 14,272 1,323 944 9,301 4,401 1,252 2013 1,845 4,776 29,492 8,575 -1,788 14,480 7,836 1,348 2,532 950 11,139 9,044 -24 4,349 680 2014 214 4,871 19,702 8,721 1,236 14,678 6,860 1,373 2,804 956 5,378 8,799 1,592 4,290 Change 90,751 1,932 2015 2,060 4,967 49,194 8,859 -552 14,873 14,696 1,397 5,336 964 16,517 8,576 Slide 15 1,568 4,229 NRS - NRS Head of Household Rates - - Lone parent - 2010 - AllPOPGROUP Persons 12,0% 10,0% 8,0% 6,0% 4,0% NRS - NRS Head of Household - All Categories - All Ages - All Persons 2,0% 55,0% 0,0% 0-15 50,0% 45,0% 40,0% 35,0% 2010 16-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 Glasgow and Clyde Valley East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire Glasgow and Clyde Valley East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire WestCity Dunbartonshire Glasgow Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire 85-89 90+ 2032 2033 2034 2035 West Dunbartonshire Slide 16 Using DF within POPGROUP POPGROUP cons.xls DFSupply.xls Slide 17 The impact on population of a housing plan POPGROUP Slide 18 POPGROUP DF - comparison of scenarios DFCompare.xls PopGroup All Category: Total 480,000 460,000 440,000 Households 420,000 Proj_ID 400,000 Migration-led Migration-led revised Natural Change 380,000 SNPP 2008 360,000 340,000 320,000 300,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Year Example: Leeds Household impact of alternative population forecasts Slide 19 POPGROUP Peter Boden [email protected] Richard Culf [email protected] Slide 20 Observations • POPGROUP POPGROUP – aims to satisfy local planning needs – replicates official ‘trend’ projections – is not restricted to any time or place – does not (yet) support projection of rates from a past time series • Relies on work external to model – encourages users’ own policy-led scenarios and alternative demographic assumptions Slide 21