Transcript THE 2011 POBAL HP DEPRIVATION INDEX FOR SMALL AREAS (SA) An Inter-temporal Analysis 2006 - 2011 Trutz Haase & Jonathan Pratschke Dublin, August 2012

THE 2011 POBAL HP DEPRIVATION INDEX
FOR SMALL AREAS (SA)
An Inter-temporal Analysis 2006 - 2011
Trutz Haase & Jonathan Pratschke
Dublin, August 2012
THE 2011 POBAL HP DEPRIVATION INDEX (SA)
• This presentation contains a graphic display of the latest index scores for the
Pobal HP Deprivation Index for Small Areas (SA)
• The presentation comprises three parts:
i. A comparison at NUTS 1-4 level of the key social indicators which underlie
the HP Deprivation Index, spanning five census waves 1991 to 2011
ii. SA-level maps for the 2011 key indicators, and
iii. SA-level maps for the 2006 and 2011 absolute and relative deprivation
scores
• For a description of the conceptual underpinnings and statistical features of the
HP Deprivation Index, please consult separate presentations
OVERVIEW OF SUCCESSIVE DEPRIVATION INDICES,
HAASE & PRATSCHKE 1996 - 2012
06
SA
n=18,488
ED
n = 3,409
91
96
86
91
96
91
96
02
91
96
02
06
06
NUTS 4 n = 34
91
96
86
91
96
91
96
02
91
96
02
06
06
NUTS 3 n = 8
91
96
86
91
96
91
96
02
91
96
02
06
06
NUTS 2 n = 2
91
96
86
91
96
91
96
02
91
96
02
06
06
NUTS 1 n = 1
91
96
86
91
96
91
96
02
91
96
02
06
06
01
NI
01
NI
01
NI
01
NI
01
NI
01
NI
06
11
06
11
91
96
02
06
11
06
11
91
96
02
06
11
06
11
91
96
02
06
11
06
11
91
96
02
06
11
06
11
91
96
02
06
11
06
11
Haase et al., 1996
Haase, 1999
Pratschke & Haase, 2001
Pratschke & Haase, 2004
Haase & Pratschke, 2005
Level at which model is estimated
Level to which data is aggregated
Haase & Pratschke, 2008
Haase & Pratschke, 2010
Haase & Pratschke, 2011
Haase & Pratschke, 2012
Comparing Key Social Indicators
across five Census Waves
1991 - 2011
THE UNDERLYING DIMENSIONS OF SOCIAL
DISADVANTAGE
 Demographic Decline (predominantly rural)

population loss and the social and demographic effects of emigration
(age dependency, low education of adult population)
 Social Class Deprivation (applying in rural and urban areas)

social class composition, education, housing quality
 Labour Market Deprivation (predominantly urban)

unemployment, lone parents, low skills base
POPULATION
CHANGE
1991 - 2011
• 30 per cent increase between 1991
and 2011
• Initial growth faster in S&E Region
• Since 2006, faster growth in BMW
Region
Dublin City
South County Dublin
Dublin Fingal
Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown
Kildare
Meath
Wicklow
Carlow
Kilkenny
Wexford
Tipperary SR
Waterford City
County Waterford
Cork City
County Cork
Kerry
Clare
Limerick City
County Limerick
Tipperary NR
Galway City
County Galway
Mayo
Roscommon
Louth
Leitrim
Sligo
Cavan
Donegal
Monaghan
Laois
Longford
Offaly
Westmeath
.
Dublin
Mid East
South East
South West
Mid West
West
Border
Midlands
.
Southern&Eastern
Border,Midlands&Western
.
Ireland
80%
1991
1996
2002
2006
2011
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
AGE
DEPENDENCY
RATE
1991 - 2011
• 7 percentage point decline between
1991 and 2006
• Rural areas gradually catching up
• Reversal in trend between 2006
and 2011, with Age Dependency
Rate again increasing
Dublin City
South County Dublin
Dublin Fingal
Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown
Kildare
Meath
Wicklow
Carlow
Kilkenny
Wexford
Tipperary SR
Waterford City
County Waterford
Cork City
County Cork
Kerry
Clare
Limerick City
County Limerick
Tipperary NR
Galway City
County Galway
Mayo
Roscommon
Louth
Leitrim
Sligo
Cavan
Donegal
Monaghan
Laois
Longford
Offaly
Westmeath
.
Dublin
Mid East
South East
South West
Mid West
West
Border
Midlands
.
Southern&Eastern
Border,Midlands&Western
.
Ireland
45%
1991
1996
2002
2006
2011
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
LONE PARENT
RATE
1991 - 2011
• Doubling in rate between 1991 and
2006
• Highly concentrated in urban areas
• Further increase in rural areas
between 2006 and 2011
• Reversal in trend after 2006 in all
cities except Cork
Dublin City
South County Dublin
Dublin Fingal
Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown
Kildare
Meath
Wicklow
Carlow
Kilkenny
Wexford
Tipperary SR
Waterford City
County Waterford
Cork City
County Cork
Kerry
Clare
Limerick City
County Limerick
Tipperary NR
Galway City
County Galway
Mayo
Roscommon
Louth
Leitrim
Sligo
Cavan
Donegal
Monaghan
Laois
Longford
Offaly
Westmeath
.
Dublin
Mid East
South East
South West
Mid West
West
Border
Midlands
.
Southern&Eastern
Border,Midlands&Western
.
Ireland
1991
1996
2002
2006
2011
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
PROPORTION OF
ADULT
POPULATION
WITH PRIMARY
EDUCATION ONLY
1991 - 2011
• 50% reduction between 1991 and
2006
• Rural areas gradually catching up
• Trend continues between 2006 and
2011, albeit at a slower rate
Dublin City
South County Dublin
Dublin Fingal
Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown
Kildare
Meath
Wicklow
Carlow
Kilkenny
Wexford
Tipperary SR
Waterford City
County Waterford
Cork City
County Cork
Kerry
Clare
Limerick City
County Limerick
Tipperary NR
Galway City
County Galway
Mayo
Roscommon
Louth
Leitrim
Sligo
Cavan
Donegal
Monaghan
Laois
Longford
Offaly
Westmeath
.
Dublin
Mid East
South East
South West
Mid West
West
Border
Midlands
.
Southern&Eastern
Border,Midlands&Western
.
Ireland
60%
1991
1996
2002
2006
2011
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
PROPORTION OF
ADULT
POPULATION
WITH THIRD
LEVEL
EDUCATION
1991 - 2011
• 2½ - fold increase between 1991
and 2006
• Urban areas maintaining their
relative advantage
• Only marginal increase in select
areas between 2006 and 2011
• Other areas experiencing first
marginal decline
Dublin City
South County Dublin
Dublin Fingal
Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown
Kildare
Meath
Wicklow
Carlow
Kilkenny
Wexford
Tipperary SR
Waterford City
County Waterford
Cork City
County Cork
Kerry
Clare
Limerick City
County Limerick
Tipperary NR
Galway City
County Galway
Mayo
Roscommon
Louth
Leitrim
Sligo
Cavan
Donegal
Monaghan
Laois
Longford
Offaly
Westmeath
.
Dublin
Mid East
South East
South West
Mid West
West
Border
Midlands
.
Southern&Eastern
Border,Midlands&Western
.
Ireland
1991
1996
2002
2006
2011
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
PROPORTION OF
POPULATION IN
HIGHER AND
LOWER
PROFESSIONAL
CLASSES
1991 - 2011
• 30% increase between 1991 and
2006
• Rural areas slowly catching up
during boom years
• Overall trend continues between
2006 and 2011
• But urban-rural differential is again
growing
Dublin City
South County Dublin
Dublin Fingal
Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown
Kildare
Meath
Wicklow
Carlow
Kilkenny
Wexford
Tipperary SR
Waterford City
County Waterford
Cork City
County Cork
Kerry
Clare
Limerick City
County Limerick
Tipperary NR
Galway City
County Galway
Mayo
Roscommon
Louth
Leitrim
Sligo
Cavan
Donegal
Monaghan
Laois
Longford
Offaly
Westmeath
.
Dublin
Mid East
South East
South West
Mid West
West
Border
Midlands
.
Southern&Eastern
Border,Midlands&Western
.
Ireland
10%
1991
1996
2002
2006
2011
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
PROPORTION OF
POPULATION IN
UNSKILLED AND
SEMI-SKILLED
CLASSES
1991 - 2011
• Sharp 40% decline between 1991
and 2006
• Rural areas rapidly catching up
• Overall trend continues between
2006 and 2011, albeit at a slower
rate
Dublin City
South County Dublin
Dublin Fingal
Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown
Kildare
Meath
Wicklow
Carlow
Kilkenny
Wexford
Tipperary SR
Waterford City
County Waterford
Cork City
County Cork
Kerry
Clare
Limerick City
County Limerick
Tipperary NR
Galway City
County Galway
Mayo
Roscommon
Louth
Leitrim
Sligo
Cavan
Donegal
Monaghan
Laois
Longford
Offaly
Westmeath
.
Dublin
Mid East
South East
South West
Mid West
West
Border
Midlands
.
Southern&Eastern
Border,Midlands&Western
.
Ireland
45%
1991
1996
2002
2006
2011
35%
25%
15%
5%
MALE
UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE
1991 - 2011
• Rapid decline between 1991 and
2002, halving rates
• Rural areas not fully participating in
trend
• Massive reversal in trend between
2006 and 2011 for all areas
• 2011 rates exceed 1991 rates in all
counties except Dublin City
Dublin City
South County Dublin
Dublin Fingal
Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown
Kildare
Meath
Wicklow
Carlow
Kilkenny
Wexford
Tipperary SR
Waterford City
County Waterford
Cork City
County Cork
Kerry
Clare
Limerick City
County Limerick
Tipperary NR
Galway City
County Galway
Mayo
Roscommon
Louth
Leitrim
Sligo
Cavan
Donegal
Monaghan
Laois
Longford
Offaly
Westmeath
.
Dublin
Mid East
South East
South West
Mid West
West
Border
Midlands
.
Southern&Eastern
Border,Midlands&Western
.
Ireland
1991
1996
2002
2006
2011
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
FEMALE
UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE
1991 - 2011
• Steady decline between 1991 and
2002, nearly halving rates
• Decline in urban areas exceeds that
in rural areas
• Massive reversal in trend between
2006 and 2011 for all areas
• 2011 rates exceed 1991 rates in
most counties
Dublin City
South County Dublin
Dublin Fingal
Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown
Kildare
Meath
Wicklow
Carlow
Kilkenny
Wexford
Tipperary SR
Waterford City
County Waterford
Cork City
County Cork
Kerry
Clare
Limerick City
County Limerick
Tipperary NR
Galway City
County Galway
Mayo
Roscommon
Louth
Leitrim
Sligo
Cavan
Donegal
Monaghan
Laois
Longford
Offaly
Westmeath
.
Dublin
Mid East
South East
South West
Mid West
West
Border
Midlands
.
Southern&Eastern
Border,Midlands&Western
.
Ireland
1991
1996
2002
2006
2011
0%
10%
20%
30%
LOCAL
AUTHORITY
HOUSING
1991 - 2011
• Significant decline between 1991
and 2002, particularly in Southern
& Eastern Region
• Reversal in trend after 2002, with
slow increases pertaining since
• Imbalance between rural and urban
provision gradually diminishing
Dublin City
South County Dublin
Dublin Fingal
Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown
Kildare
Meath
Wicklow
Carlow
Kilkenny
Wexford
Tipperary SR
Waterford City
County Waterford
Cork City
County Cork
Kerry
Clare
Limerick City
County Limerick
Tipperary NR
Galway City
County Galway
Mayo
Roscommon
Louth
Leitrim
Sligo
Cavan
Donegal
Monaghan
Laois
Longford
Offaly
Westmeath
.
Dublin
Mid East
South East
South West
Mid West
West
Border
Midlands
.
Southern&Eastern
Border,Midlands&Western
.
Ireland
1991
1996
2002
2006
2011
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
PRIVATELY
RENTED
HOUSING
1991 - 2011
• Strongly concentrated in the cities
• Steady increase between 1991 and
2006, in both urban and rural
counties
• Steep increase between 2006 and
2011
Dublin City
South County Dublin
Dublin Fingal
Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown
Kildare
Meath
Wicklow
Carlow
Kilkenny
Wexford
Tipperary SR
Waterford City
County Waterford
Cork City
County Cork
Kerry
Clare
Limerick City
County Limerick
Tipperary NR
Galway City
County Galway
Mayo
Roscommon
Louth
Leitrim
Sligo
Cavan
Donegal
Monaghan
Laois
Longford
Offaly
Westmeath
.
Dublin
Mid East
South East
South West
Mid West
West
Border
Midlands
.
Southern&Eastern
Border,Midlands&Western
.
Ireland
1991
1996
2002
2006
2011
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
OWNER
OCCUPIED
HOUSING
1991 - 2011
• Rates in rural counties much higher
than in urban counties
• Steady decline between 1991 and
2006
• Accelerated decline between 2006
and 2011, in both urban and rural
locations
Dublin City
South County Dublin
Dublin Fingal
Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown
Kildare
Meath
Wicklow
Carlow
Kilkenny
Wexford
Tipperary SR
Waterford City
County Waterford
Cork City
County Cork
Kerry
Clare
Limerick City
County Limerick
Tipperary NR
Galway City
County Galway
Mayo
Roscommon
Louth
Leitrim
Sligo
Cavan
Donegal
Monaghan
Laois
Longford
Offaly
Westmeath
.
Dublin
Mid East
South East
South West
Mid West
West
Border
Midlands
.
Southern&Eastern
Border,Midlands&Western
.
Ireland
100%
1991
1996
2002
2006
2011
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
AVERAGE
NUMBER OF
PERSONS PER
ROOM
1991 - 2011
• Significant improvement over time
• Rural densities falling below urban
for the first time in 2002
• Urban densities remain unchanged
after 2006, but rural densities
continue to fall
Dublin City
South County Dublin
Dublin Fingal
Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown
Kildare
Meath
Wicklow
Carlow
Kilkenny
Wexford
Tipperary SR
Waterford City
County Waterford
Cork City
County Cork
Kerry
Clare
Limerick City
County Limerick
Tipperary NR
Galway City
County Galway
Mayo
Roscommon
Louth
Leitrim
Sligo
Cavan
Donegal
Monaghan
Laois
Longford
Offaly
Westmeath
.
Dublin
Mid East
South East
South West
Mid West
West
Border
Midlands
.
Southern&Eastern
Border,Midlands&Western
.
Ireland
0.75
1991
1996
2002
2006
2011
0.65
0.55
0.45
0.35
Mapping Key Social Indicators (SA)
2011
The following maps are broadly based on quintile distributions of each of the ten
indicators which underlie the Pobal HP Deprivation Index
5 YEAR
POPULATION
CHANGE
2006- 2011
• Strongest growth in urban
peripheries
• Strongest decline in (remote) rural
areas
Population Change
2006 - 2011
20 or more
7 to 20
0 to 7
-7 to 0
-7 or more
AGE
DEPENDENCY
RATE
2011
• Lower rates in urban peripheries
• Highest rates in (remote) rural areas
Age Dependency Rate
2011
40 to 80
35 to 40
30 to 35
25 to 30
0 to 25
LONE PARENT
RATE
2011
• Overwhelmingly urban
phenomenon
• Reaching over 50% in
disadvantaged city areas
Lone Parent Rate
2011
33 to 100
21 to 33
14 to 21
9 to 14
0 to 9
PROPORTION OF
ADULT
POPULATION
WITH PRIMARY
EDUCATION ONLY
2011
• Lowest in urban periphery
• Highest in remote rural areas
• Cities containing both extremes
Primary Education Only
2011
24 to 81
18 to 24
12 to 18
7 to 12
0 to 7
PROPORTION OF
ADULT
POPULATION
WITH THIRD
LEVEL
EDUCATION
2011
• Mirror image of low education
• Highest in urban periphery
• Lowest in remote rural areas
• Cities containing both extremes
Third Level Education
2011
41 to 97
31 to 41
25 to 31
18 to 25
0 to 18
PROPORTION OF
POPULATION IN
HIGHER AND
LOWER
PROFESSIONAL
CLASSES
2011
• Similar to high education
• Highest in urban periphery
• Lowest in remote rural areas
• Cities containing both extremes
Higher and Lower Professionals
2011
46 to 85
37 to 46
30 to 37
22 to 30
0 to 22
PROPORTION OF
POPULATION IN
UNSKILLED AND
SEMI-SKILLED
CLASSES
2011
• Mirror image to professional classes
• Lowest in urban periphery
• Highest in remote rural areas
• Cities containing both extremes
Semi- and Unskilled Manual Classes
2011
26 to 64
20 to 26
16 to 20
11 to 16
0 to 11
MALE
UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE
2011
• The spatial distribution of male
unemployment rates increasingly
reflect the social class composition
of local areas
• Munster shows relatively
favourable labour market
conditions
Male Unemployment
2011
30 to 88
23 to 30
18 to 23
14 to 18
0 to 14
FEMALE
UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE
2011
• Female unemployment rates in
2011 closely resemble male
unemployment rates in their spatial
distribution
Female Unemployment
2011
20 to 80
15 to 20
12 to 15
9 to 12
0 to 9
LOCAL
AUTHORITY
HOUSING
2011
• Primarily associated with
disadvantaged urban areas
Local Authority Housing
2011
8 to 100
3 to 8
2 to 3
1 to 2
0 to 1
PRIVATELY
RENTED
HOUSING
2011
• Exclusively urban with considerable
presence in affluent areas
Private Rented Accommodation
2011
30 to 100
15 to 30
10 to 15
5 to 10
0 to 5
OWNER
OCCUPIED
HOUSING
2011
• Predominantly rural
• Low urban rates are not necessarily
related to social disadvantage
Own House
2011
92 to 100
85 to 92
72 to 85
53 to 72
0 to 53
AVERAGE
NUMBER OF
PERSONS PER
ROOM
2011
• High rates in the average number of
persons per room are a
predominantly urban phenomenon
Persons per Room
2011
0.55 to 10.82
0.5 to 0.55
0.48 to 0.5
0.44 to 0.48
0.26 to 0.44
The Pobal HP Deprivation Index (SA)
Small Area Analysis, 2006 - 2011
BASIC MODEL OF THE
POBAL HP DEPRIVATION INDEX
d1
Age Dependency Rate
d2
Population Change
d3
Primary Education only
d4
Third Level Education
d5
Persons per Room
d6
Professional Classes
d7
Semi- and Unskilled Classes
d8
Lone Parents
d9
Male Unemployment Rate
d10
Female Unemployment Rate
Demographic
Growth
Social Class
Composition
Labour Market
Situation
MAPPING DEPRIVATION
most disadvantaged
most affluent
marginally below the average
disadvantaged
very disadvantaged
extremely disadvantaged
marginally above the average
affluent
very affluent
extremely affluent
ABSOLUTE
INDEX SCORES
2006
Absolute Index Score 2006
Haase & Pratschke 2012
30 to 50
20 to 30
10 to 20
0 to 10
-10 to 0
-20 to -10
-30 to -20
-60 to -30
(22)
(293)
(2513)
(6857)
(5925)
(2294)
(564)
(20)
ABSOLUTE
INDEX SCORES
2011
Absolute Index Scores 2011
Haase & Pratschke 2012
30 to 50
20 to 30
10 to 20
0 to 10
-10 to 0
-20 to -10
-30 to -20
-60 to -30
(2)
(70)
(838)
(3397)
(7181)
(5132)
(1719)
(149)
COMPARISON OF ABSOLUTE DEPRIVATION SCORES,
1991 AND 2006
 Shows the massive increase in disadvantage in wake of the
recession after the 2006 Census, affecting literally every
part of the country.
RELATIVE
INDEX SCORES
2006
Relative Index Score 2006
Haase & Pratschke 2012
30 to 50
20 to 30
10 to 20
0 to 10
-10 to 0
-20 to -10
-30 to -20
-60 to -30
(22)
(293)
(2513)
(6857)
(5925)
(2294)
(564)
(20)
RELATIVE
INDEX SCORES
2011
Relative Index Score 2011
Haase & Pratschke 2012
30 to 50
20 to 30
10 to 20
0 to 10
-10 to 0
-20 to -10
-30 to -20
-60 to -30
(30)
(474)
(2412)
(6232)
(6483)
(2408)
(447)
(2)
COMPARISON OF RELATIVE DEPRIVATION SCORES,
1991 AND 2006
 The pattern between affluence and disadvantage, whereby
affluence is greatest in the urban peripheries and gradually
declining towards more rural locations, remains broadly
intact.
 There is some indication that the reach of the affluent
commuter belts has somewhat diminished.
 Within the Greater Dublin Area, there is some shift in the
location of the most affluent areas. Whereas in 2006 the
Western part of the Region scored high in affluence, in 2011
this is again primarily concentrated in Dun Laoghaire /
Rathdown.
CHANGE IN
RELATIVE
INDEX SCORES
2006-2011
Change in Relative HP Index Scores, 2006-2011
Haase and Pratschke 2012
improvement by more than 30 points
(15)
improvement by 20 to 30 points
(45)
improvement by 10 to 20 points
(405)
improvement by less than 10 points (8195)
no data in 2006
(252)
deterioration by less than 10 points (9210)
deterioration by 10 to 20 points
(350)
deterioration by 20 to 30 points
(14)
deterioration by more than 30 points
(2)