Transcript WAR WITH IRAN? A Geopolitical Backgrounder QuickTime™ and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. Dr.

WAR WITH IRAN?
A Geopolitical Backgrounder
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Dr. Zoltán Grossman
Member of the Faculty (Geography & Native American Studies)
The Evergreen State College, Olympia, Washington
http://academic.evergreen.edu/g/grossmaz
Ethnicity:
Iran has Persian majority,
Iraq has Arab majority
Iran and Iraq
Religion:
Iran and Iraq both have
Shi’a Muslim majorities
(past Iraqi rulers were Sunni)
Interwined histories:
Shi’ism, oil, monarchies,
wars, British/U.S. control,
“Axis of Evil”
Water + Oil + Size = Industry
“I'm not sure I can tell you the
difference in Iraq and Iran.”
--Alan Jackson
Iran more geopolitically pivotal
Iran “may well prove as
large a threat to U.S. interests
in the Gulf as Iraq has.”
-- Project for the New
American Century
Persian/Iranian Empires
Crossroads of empires, conquerers, religions, ethnicities
Islamic control in 637-651
Rule by succession of Shah (king) dynasties
Political map
Shi’a and Sunni regions
Shi’as in dark green. The holiest Shi'ite cities of Karbala and Najaf
are within Iraq; Iraqi Ayatollah Sistani was born in Iran.
Ethnic map
Azeris
Xxxxxxx
Turkmen
Kurds
XxxxxxxPersians
Persians
Luris
Xxxxxxx
Bakhtiaris
Arabs
xxxxxx Luris
Persians
Qashqai
Baluchis
Persian (Farsi-speaking) core
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Persians
51%
Azeris
(Turkic)
24%
Kurds
7%
Arabs
3%
Ethnic minorities
straddle boundaries
Azeris
Kurds
Arabs
Baluchis
Ethnic groups & energy resources
Xxxxxxx
Xxxxxxx
Xxxxxxx
xxxxxx
Western Iran
Persia never a colony?
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Anglo-Persian War,
1856-57
Ahvaz (Khuzestan)
fell to
British, 1857
Arabs lived in
SW region
since 642.
Anglo-Russian “Great Game”
spheres of influence, 1907
Russian
Empire
Afgh.
Ottoman
Empire
Kuwait
British
India
British take oil in Arab region, 1908
British had engineered “protectorate” status
for “Arabistan” region in SW Persia, 1897
Oil discovered by British
in Arabistan, 1908
Start of Anglo-Persian Oil-the future British Petroleum (BP)
British and Russians occupy
Persia during World War I
Oil economy
10% of world reserves
(2nd to Saudi Arabia)
Most oil in SW, in Arab
minority region of Khuzestan
Reza Shah, 1921
Reza Shah emphasizes pre-Islamic
imperial glories, Persian core
Nationalist but also modernizer,
Pahlavi dynasty offends clerics
Retakes control of Arabistan,
renames Khuzestan, 1925
Renames Persia as Iran, 1935
World War II
Reza Shah flirts with Nazis
British and Soviets invade, force him into exile, 1941
Install son Mohammad Reza Pahlevi as Shah
British reoccupy Khuzestan oil fields;
Soviets occupy Azeri NW Iran
After World War II
Mahabad Republic in Azeri/Kurdish region, 1945-46
Truman threatened nuclear weapons to force
withdrawal of Soviet troops from NW Iran, 1946
Anglo-Iranian has
stranglehold on
Khuzestan oil fields
Mossadegh elected, 1951
Premier Mohammed
Mossadegh, Parliament
nationalizes British
oil holdings, 1952
U.S. portrays
nationalist leader
as a Communist
CIA coup, 1953
CIA agent Kermit Roosevelt
directs military coup, installs Shah
as supreme leader in Operation Ajax
Mossadegh ouster was turning point
U.S. joins British in control of oil
Shah Reza Pahlavi
West sees as bulwark vs. Communism,
Arab nationalism, (later)
Islamist fundamentalism
Emphasized glorious past,
huge palaces, kleptocracy
Nuclear bombers
stationed after Iraqis
ousted monarchy, 1958
U.S. sold nuclear technology
to Shah, who wanted a Bomb
Shah under fire, 1970s
Persian Gulf passes from British to U.S. domination
Iran-Iraq peace treaty--U.S. sells out Kurdish rebels
SAVAK secret police repression
Religious turn against
him for secularism, ties
to Israel, lavish coronation
Increasing street protests,
rebel attacks
Revolution begins, 1978
Strikes by leftist Arab oil workers in Khuzestan
Tehran protesters massacred
Call for return of Ayatollah Khomeini from
exile in France (had also been in Iraq)
Shah overthrown, 1979
Shah driven into exile, seeks medical
treatment in U.S., Panama
Ayatollah Khomeini
returns as a
unifying figure
for revolution
Revolutionary pluralism
Bani Sadr’s “negative equilibrium” vs. superpowers
Leftists, ethnic minorities had voice
Revolution against Western cultural imperialism;
Secular women wear veil as protest vs. U.S.
Hostage crisis, 1979-81
Students take embassy “spy den,” demand Shah’s return
Carter’s helicopter/bombing raid fails to free hostages;
they are released the moment Reagan is inaugurated
Turning point: Crisis strengthened Iran & U.S. hardliners
Islamic Republic
Khomeini crushes pluralism,
consolidates control, using U.S &
Iraqi threats as pretext
Executes leftists, Kurds, Azeris, and
People’s Mujahedin of Iran (PMOI)
Women’s rights restricted
by religious militia
Difficult for 1980s U.S. peace
movement: no “good guys,”
no Christian or leftist leadership
Carter Doctrine
“Carter Doctrine” formalizes U.S. access to oil fields;
threatens nuclear attack if Soviets invade Iran
Start of “energy war,” Central Command, draft registration,
psychological conditioning of Americans for Mideast war
U.S. Central Command
“American vital interests in the
Central Region are long-standing.
With over 65% of the world’s oil
reserves located in the Gulf states
of the region— from which the
United States imports nearly 20%
of its needs; Western Europe 43%;
and Japan, 68%--the international
community must have free and
unfettered access to the region’s
resources.”
--General J. H. Binford Peay III,
Central Command (1997)
Cited in Blood and Oil by Michael Klare
(Metropolitan Books, 2004)
Iranians
Iran-Iraq War,
1980-88
Iraq seized Khuzestan oil fields
after Iranian Revolution, backed
secessionist Arab rebels
(who also occupied London embassy)
Fought to bloody stalemate:
Use of trenches, human wave
tactics, chemical weapons.
Iraqis
Iraqi Shi’as fought for Iraq;
Iranian Arabs fought for Iran
Iran-Iraq War,
1980-88
U.S. supported Iraq with
intelligence, naval escorts
Reagan also later supplied
Hawk missiles to Iran in
“Iran-Contra Scandal”
(to illegally raise funds to
fight Sandinista Nicaragua)
Kissinger: “bleed both sides”
U.S. naval war,
1987-88
U.S. Navy escorts reflagged
Iraqi (Kuwaiti) oil tankers
under Iranian missile threat
U.S. battles with Iranian gunboats;
attacks oil platforms
“Accidentally” shot down
Iranian civilian jetliner
Fear of Strait of Hormuz closure;
island disputes with Gulf states
Rafsanjani presidency, 1989-97
Neutral in Gulf War, 1991;
feared both U.S. & Saddam
U.S. lets Saddam slaughter Iraqi Shi’a,
falsely assuming they would back Iran
Neutral in war between Christian Armenia,
Shi’ite Azerbaijan (ethnic over religious ideology)
Rafsanjani hardline at home, but not
confrontational to West
Accelerated nuclear energy program
Khatami presidency, 1997-2005
Youth supported “moderate”
President Mohammad Khatami;
but faced police crackdown
Some secular youth identify
Islam with hardline regime
Yet even anti-regime
youth stand by regime
on nuclear issues,
standing up to West
Pipeline
Politics
In a new “Great Game, ”
Caspian Basin oil & gas
routes contested by:
Turkey (U.S.)
Afghanistan /
Pakistan (U.S.)
Russia
Iran
(most direct)
Bases for wars, or wars for bases?
1. Gulf War,
1991
2. Yugoslav Wars,
1995-99
3. Afghan War,
2001
4. Iraq War,
2003
“Their function may be more
political than military. They
send a message to everyone.”
--Deputy Defense Secretary
Paul Wolfowitz, NYT 2002
Iraq War strategy:
Encircling Iran?
Tallil air base, Iraq
“The whole reason for the war
is to get American troops into the
region to put pressure on other
governments. This is going to be
the main American military base
in the region”
George Friedman/
Strategic Forecasting
U.S. & Iranian strategies in Iraq
Military strategy: U.S. invaded Iraq, lost 1000s of soldiers,
stuck in unpopular quagmire, saw its influence
(and its favored exile candidates) rejected by Iraqis.
Political strategy: Iran watched its 2nd-greatest enemy
eliminate its 1st enemy, advised its Iraqi allies to play along
so their candidates could run in elections, then saw the
Shi'ite parties come to power--all without firing a shot.
Iraqi Shi’ites not wanting to emulate Iran’s
theocratic rule, turn youth against religion
Ahmadinejad victory, 2005
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was populist mayor of Tehran
Built alliance of poor with religious conservatives
Bush placing Iran in “Axis of Evil”
strengthened conservatives in Iran
“Search for Enemies”
Ex-CIA official John Stockwell analysis:
U.S. government creates Third World enemies
to distract attention from domestic problems
Castro (Cuba)
Qaddafi (Libya)
The regimes of most “demonized”
leaders have stayed in power longer
than any others. They can blame U.S.
for internal economic problems & dissent.
Noriega (Panama)
Ho (N. Vietnam)
2000s:
Chávez or
Ahmadinejad?
Ayatollahs (Iran)
Kims (N. Korea)
Saddam (Iraq)
Israel has had nuclear
weapons since 1970s;
Pakistan since 1998
Nuclear program
All Iranian presidents say nuclear
technology only for energy
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Ayatollah Ali Khameini issued
fatwa vs. nuclear weapons, 2005
U.S., Israel, EU do not believe Iran;
IAEA critical of Iranian program
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Uranium Enrichment
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(3.5% for energy;
90%+ for weapons-grade)
Nov. 2004: Iran voluntarily
suspends enrichment
Aug. 2005: Iran rejects EU proposal to provide enriched
uranium fuel for reactors
March 2006: IAEA “has not seen indications of
diversion of nuclear material to nuclear weapons.”
April 2006: Iran successfully enriches
uranium to 3.5% (energy-grade)
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Possible attack on nuclear program
Bush could bomb underground Iranian nuclear facilities
Or Israel may strike, like it bombed Iraq nuclear plant, 1981
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Ideological preparation
Threat of “Iranian nuke” deeply embedded in Hollywood
Justifying use of U.S. nukes to counter Iranian nuke?
Seymour Hersh exposing White House discussion
of use of nuclear “bunker busters” vs. Iran
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Staging grounds for invasion?
Iraqi Shi’a leaders would not allow military assault on Iran.
But U.S. can launch strikes from aircraft carriers,
or Kuwait, Afghanistan, Turkey, Azerbaijan.
Ex-weapons inspector Scott Ritter:
U.S. building up capabilities in
Azerbaijan (Iran's NW border),
sponsoring PMOI rebel bombings.
Pentagon does not think strikes
alone will destroy Iran’s facilities,
opposes nuclear option
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Difficulties in invading Iran
“Invading Iran would likely make the bloody
quagmire in Iraq look like a picnic. Iran has
nearly four times the territory and three times
the population of Iraq. Also, Iran's terrain is
much more mountainous than Iraq's and even
more ideal for guerrilla warfare.” --Ivan Eland
Exploiting
ethnic
tensions
Azeri protests,
May 2006
Arab protests,
April, Nov. 2005
Kurdish rebel
attacks, 2006-07
Baluchi Sunni rebel
attacks, 2006-07
xxxxxx
Stimulating ethnic revolt?
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U.S. Marine intelligence teams hooking
up with ethnic rebel groups in Iran (Financial Times 2/26/06)
American Enterprise Institute hosts conference, 2005
Timing of Western interest in ethnic grievances
coincides with larger desire to pressure & isolate Iran.
U.S. & U.K. have a long history of championing the
rights of an ethnic minority against an “enemy,” then
abandoning the minority when it is no longer useful.
Stimulating ethnic revolt?
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U.S. combat units are "on the ground" in Iran, marking targets for
any future air attack, "working with minority groups in Iran,
including the Azeris, in the north, the Baluchis, in the southeast, and
the Kurds, in the northeast. The troops are studying the terrain, and
giving away walking-around money to ethnic tribes, and recruiting
scouts from local tribes and shepherds,' the consultant said. One goal
is to get eyes on the ground' ... The broader aim, the consultant said,
is to ‘encourage ethnic tensions' and undermine the regime.”
"[W]e have been deeply involved with Azeris and Baluchis and
Iranian Kurds in terror activities inside the country .”
--Seymour Hersh,
The New Yorker (1/17/05)
Stimulating ethnic revolt?
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Bush has signed Finding allocating $400 million for CIA and
Special Ops destabilization of Iran, including
• Nuclear interlligence and currency destabilization
• Kidnapping Revolutionary Guards for interrogation in Iraq
• Killing “high value targets”
• Aid to Ahwazi separatists, Mujahedin e-Khalq (MEK),
Jundallah (Baluchi Sunni fundamantalists based in Pakistan),
Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan (PJAK) in Iraq
--Seymour Hersh,
The New Yorker (7/7/08)
Stimulating ethnic revolt?
“CIA officials are understood to be helping opposition militias
among the numerous ethnic minority groups clustered in Iran's
border regions. The operations are controversial because
they involve dealing with movements that resort to terrorist
methods in pursuit of their grievances against the Iranian
regime. In the past year there has been a wave of unrest in
ethnic minority border areas of Iran, with bombing and
assassination campaigns against soldiers and government
officials. Such incidents have been carried out by the Kurds in
the west, the Azeris in the north-west, the Ahwazi Arabs in the
south-west, and the Baluchis in the south-east. ….Funding for
their separatist causes comes directly from the CIA's classified
budget but is now ‘no great secret,’ according to one former
high-ranking CIA official in Washington.”
--Sunday Telegraph (London, 2/25/07)
Risks of stimulating
ethnic revolts
Azeri revolt could draw
in Azerbaijan, Turkey
Kurdish revolt could inspire
separatists in Iraq & Turkey.
But an Arab revolt could put Iran’s
main oil province of Khuzestan under Western control.
The prospects of a limited intervention may loom larger,
simply because Bush thinks it can be a “Mission
Accomplished” with less than an all-out conquest of Iran.
Ralph Peters
Khuzestani (“Ahwazi”) grievances
Devastated in Iran-Iraq War; Arab cities still shattered
Poverty, unemployment-- few benefits from local oil
“Persianization” in place names; allegedly in schools
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Coerced removals of farmers
for development project
along strategic border
(Arvand Free Zone)
British-Ahwazi Friendship Society
rally in London
Khuzestani (“Ahwazi”) secession?
A few groups favor secession of “Al Ahwaz,”
(including Khuzestan & eastern Gulf coast)
Most Arab exile groups instead favor ethnic autonomy
of the Arab province within a new federal state
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Khuzestan:
Iran’s Achilles Heel
SW province has oil fields,
a shared Arab Shi’a identity with
Iraq, and flat plains bordering Iraq
(cities of Ahvaz, Abadan, Khorramshahr, etc.)
“The first step taken by an invading force would be
to occupy Iran's oil-rich Khuzestan Province,
securing the sensitive Straits of Hormuz and cutting
off the Iranian military's oil supply, forcing
it to depend on its limited stocks.”
-- Beirut Daily Star
The “Khuzestan Gambit”
Khuzestan “is the one large piece of flat Iranian
terrain to the west of the Zagros Mountains.
American heavy forces could swiftly occupy
Khuzestan, and in doing so seize control of most
of Iran's oil resources, and non-trivial portions
of the country's water supply and electrical
generating capacity.” --GlobalSecurity.org
Repeat of past
British colonial
and Saddam
strategies.
Are the first
moves already
being made?
Basra Incident
In Sept. 2005, British troops clashed with Iraqi
police and Shi'ite militia in Basra (Iraq), near the
border with Khuzestan. The police had arrested
two British undercover commandos who
possessed suspicious bomb-making materials.
Basra Incident
British troops launched an armored raid on the jail to free
their agents (fighting Iraqi police they had earlier trained).
Iraqis thought it strange that British agents would be caught
with insurgent-style bombs in Iraq.
Khuzestan Bombings
Yet at the same time,
bombs began going off
across the Iranian border
in Khuzestan.
A series of June 2005 car
bombings in Ahvaz
(75 miles from Basra)
killed 6 people.
Attacks in Sept.-Oct. 2005 hurt
dozens, halted oil transfers.
Khuzestan Bombings
Xxxxxxx
Xxxxxxx
Xxxxxxx
xxxxxx
In August 2005, Iran arrested a
group of Arab separatists and
accused them of links to British
intelligence in Basra, Iraq,
tying the bombings to the
commando incident. Four Arabs
executed in Feb. 2007
Anglo-Iranian
tension
Iranian officials “point to Western collusion in the sudden
spike this year in ethnic unrest in the strategic, oilproducing province of Khuzestan and describe it as proof of
a shadowy war that is receiving far less coverage in the
international press than events in Iraq. Since the beginning
of 2005, riots and a bombing campaign timed to coincide
with the June presidential elections rocked Khuzestan's
major cities.”
-- Daily Star of Beirut (10/17/05)
Anglo-Iranian tension
Tony Blair and his Foreign Secretary
Jack Straw denied the charges, and
accuse Iran of sending agents to stir
up trouble in Basra and other Iraqi
cities, by supporting Shi'ite militias
attacking “Coalition” troops.
Exiles accuse Iran’s Revolutionary
Guards of training to quell Arab protests,
and using Lebanese Hezbollah (from
local training camps) against protesters.
(U.S. accuses Hezbollah of training
Iraqi Shi’as in Khuzestan, May 2008).
Anglo-Iranian tension
In March 2005, Straw had met with
London-based Iranian Arab exiles
(Khuzestan Front leader visited
White House in April 2005.)
U.K. sailors captured in Khuzestan
waters, released, March 2007.
Ahwazi separatists assassinate
Revolutionary Guard colonel, 2008
Arab protests in Khuzestan
In April 2005, a letter allegedly from the Iranian VicePresident was read on Al-Ahwaz television (broadcast from
U.S. via satellite) supposedly advocating forced Arab
removal from Khuzestan & importation of Persian settlers.
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Though Tehran denounced
the letter as a forgery, Arab
youths took the streets of
Ahvaz and clashed with police,
with 5 killed, 400 arrested.
November Eid protests left
2 Arabs dead & 200 arrested.
First front in a War on Iran?
1. Western propaganda that Iran plans “ethnic cleansing”
of Arabs (like in Kosovo or Darfur), to gain U.S. public
support for assistance to rebels or military action.
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First front in a War on Iran?
2. U.S. & British forces protect an Arab uprising from,
crackdown, and turn Khuzestan into a de facto autonomous
protectorate of “Arabistan” or “Ahwaz” (Kosovo precedent)
3. West takes control of Iran’s oil-dependent economy,
by holding Khuzestan as an economic “hostage,”
and dictates terms to Tehran government.
4. Pentagon fantasizes that ruling clerics would be
undermined and Iranian reformers would overthrow them.
New tensions
Skirmishes between U.S. Navy
and Iranian speedboats in Persian
Gulf, Jan. 2008
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Ahwazi exiles denounce
Iranian nuclear power plant
construction at Darkhovin,
Feb. 2008
Israeli strike?
Israel bombs Syrian plant as warning, Sept. 2007
Air war games over Mediterranean and Iraq,
with U.S. approval, Summer 2008
Bush gives “amber light” for Israeli strike
London Times / Jerusalem Post (7/13/08)
Kadima split; Olmert weak
Mofaz vs. Livni conflict over Iran strike
Iran not reprocessing uranium for weapons;
air strikes would “turn Middle East into a
ball of fire” (Mohammad El Baradei, IAEA)
U.S. Road to War
National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) asserts Iran ended
A-bomb program in 2003; but Bush and Cheney dispute
(“knowledge” is enough), Dec. 2007
Admiral Fallon resigns, Sec. Gates criticisms dismissed
HR 362 / SR 580 (Dodd/Shelby) calls for economic
sanctions on Iran, divestment of oil equipment companies
(would lead to oil deindustrization)
Possible naval blockade of Strait of Hormuz ???
Sanctions are popular and war unpopular,
but sanctions can lead to an Act of War
What can backfire
Destroying any chance of reform in Iran, and rallying even
“moderate” Iranians around their government.
Arab secession sets into motion the “Balkanization” of Iran,
which would inevitably tear apart neighboring countries.
Military & Revolutionary Guards could counterattack, block
oil lanes, or melt into an Iraq-style insurgency.
Self-fulfilling prophecy: Iran War could stimulate more
reactive terrorism and nuclear weapons programs.
Dr. Zoltán Grossman
Member of the Faculty
(Geography & Native American Studies)
The Evergreen State College
Lab 1, 2700 Evergreen Pkwy. NW
Olympia, WA 98505 USA
Tel.:
(360) 867-6153
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: http://academic.evergreen.edu/g/grossmaz
This presentation available at
http://academic.evergreen.edu/g/grossmaz/IranWar.ppt
Article in Z magazine (January 2006) at
http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?SectionID=67&ItemID=9073