Transcript Research Methodology and Methods of Social Inquiry GSSR October 11 2010 Research Design I.

Research Methodology and Methods of Social Inquiry
GSSR
October 11 2010
Research Design I
Research Design
Research design: plan that shows, through the discussion of the
causal model (theoretical) and the data, how we expect to
make inferences.
Stages of Social Research
FORMULATION OF RESEARCH PROBLEM & THEORETICAL MODEL
Chose variables and specify hypothesis
PREPARATION OF RESEARCH DESIGN
Define population and select sample. Develop instruments
MEASUREMENT
SAMPLING
DATA COLLECTION
DATA ORGANIZATION AND PROCESSING
ANALYSES AND INTERPRETATION
Make decisions about the fit of data and theory. Results are communicated to
an audience.
(Confirm or reject your initial theory)
Formulation of Theoretical Model & Research Problem
•
Choosing the research question
- researchable;
‘What ?’ questions; ‘Why ?” questions
- interesting; no-surprize; „so what ?”
•
•
Theory
Comprehensive literature review
What do these help achieve?
A. Whom do we study? (units of observation)
B. Which characteristics of these units do we study?
(Variables)
C. What are our hypotheses? (i.e. the expected relationships
btw. the variables)
D. Understand (better) the results; interpretation.
A.
Units of Observation (i.e. units of analysis; cases)
- individuals (micro-level); households; families; groups;
- networks, organizations (meso-level);
- cities; states/counties; countries; regions (macro-level)
Aggregate Data
- Data gathered at one set of units (ex. the individual) that is combined
(i.e. expressed in a summary form) to describe a larger social unit
(ex. cities).
Ex:
Measure of city’s socioeconomic resources: average income and
education of its inhabitants;
High School performance measure: % of students who go on to college
after graduation
\
Attention: When information about individuals is aggregated to describe
groups/collectivities, the unit of analysis can be either the
individual or the group.
Assumptions made about individuals based on aggregate data are
vulnerable to the ecological fallacy (ecological inference fallacy)
Error in the interpretation of statistical data:
Inferences about the nature of specific individuals are based only upon
aggregate statistics collected for the group to which those
individuals belong.
This fallacy assumes that individual members of a group have the
average characteristics of the group at large.
\
Ex: Aggregate data on income for a neighborhood of a city shows that the
average household income for the residents of that area is $30,000.
The ecological fallacy can occur if we state, based on these data, that
people living in the area earn about $30,000
Examination of the neighborhood might show that it is actually composed
of 2 types of residential areas, a lower socio-economic group of
residents, and a higher socio-economic group. The poorer part of town
residents earn on average $10,000 while the more affluent citizens can
average $50,000.
B. Variables = Characteristics of the units of observation
A variable is a measurable characteristic that differs across
observation units. Each variable assumes a set of some
definite values.
Units of
observation
Case # 1
Case # 2
Case # 3
.
.
Case # n
Age
21
36
23
.
.
33
Gender
0
1
1
.
.
0
Variables
Education
12
16
15
.
.
17
Political Party
0
3
2
.
.
1
C. Hypotheses
A hypothesis is a prediction about how variables relate to each
other (i.e. the relationship btw. variables).
Relationships btw. Variables: changes in the values of one
variable are accompanied by systematic changes in the other
variable(s).
A hypothesis is usually based on theoretical expectations about
how things work.
At minimum, any hypothesis involves 2 variables: an
independent variable (IV) and a dependent variable (DV).
DV measures the presumed effect/outcome;
Y
IV measures the presumed cause; Controls; Intervening
Variables;
X
Based on theory, we specify the direction of influence among
variables. i.e we formulate hypotheses.
Generally, social science research tests hypotheses.
In statistical inference, hypotheses generally take one of the two forms:
substantive and null.
A substantive hypothesis represents an actual expectation about the
relationship between 2 or more variables.
(Ex: higher education increases the likelihood of upward mobility)
To decide whether a substantive hypothesis is supported by the
evidence, it is necessary to test a related hypothesis, called the null
hypothesis
(Ex: education has no effect on mobility.)
Spurious Associations
A statistically significant association between 2 variables, driven
by a third variable, which affects both.
Ex: positive relation (correlation) between number of firefighters
at the sight of a fire, and the amount of damage produced.
Social researchers test hypotheses through:
- experiments
- surveys
- content analyses
- participant observations
- secondary analyses