Transcript UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 Trends in International Migration George Groenewold, NiDi 1.

UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005
Trends in International Migration
George Groenewold, NiDi
1. Concepts and Definitions
2. Data sources and their shortcomings
3. Measurement of migration: Stocks and Flows
4. Trends in International Migration in the World and Europe
1. Concepts and Definitions
Demographic Balance Equation
P(t+1)= P(t)+Births-Deaths+(Immigrants-Emigrants), or,
P(t+1)= P(t)+Natural Increase+Net Migration
International migration
Immigrant: someone living in a country other than where
he/she was born
Emigrant: someone leaving his/her country of birth to go
and live in another country
Internal migration
In-migrant: someone living in another place than where
he/she was born (but within the same country)
Out-migrant: someone leaving his/her place of birth to
go and live in another place (but within the same country)
Net migration
Difference between the number of immigrants (or in-migrants)
and the number of emigrants (or out-migrants)
•
If net migration is positive, there are more immigrants
than emigrants
•
A negative net migration implies that more people are
leaving than arriving
Migration rates and ratios
• Out-migration (emigration) rate: percentage of
population from place x that now lives elsewhere
• In-migration (immigration) ratio: population living in
place x, but born elsewhere, as a percentage of the
total population living in place x
• Depending on research question, denominator may
differ so that indicator may be either a rate or ratio
Lifetime migrant: someone who at the time of the census lives
away from his/her place of birth
Recent migrant: someone whose place of residence at the
time of the census differs from that 1, 5 years ago
Return migrant: someone who, at the time of the census, was
living in the same place as at birth, but who was living in another
place X-years ago
Multiple migrant: someone whose place of residence is
different at all three times: at birth, X-years ago, and at the
census
Refugee:
A refugee is a person who ‘owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted
for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social
group, or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality, and is
unable to or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection
of that country…’
(The 1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees)
But….also persons granted refugee status by UNHCR, UN Relief and
Welfare Agency (UNRWA), 1969 OAU Convention on African Refugees
Internally displaced person (IDP):
Internally displaced persons are persons or groups of persons who have
been forced or obliged to flee or to leave their homes or places of
habitual residence, in particular as a result of or in order to avoid the
effects of armed conflict, situations of generalized violence, violations of
human rights or natural or human-inflicted disasters, and who have not
crossed an internationally recognized state border
2. Data sources and their shortcomings
Potential data sources for migration statistics:
• Population censuses and population registers
• Border statistics
• Admission and stay registers for foreigners, including
refugees and asylum-seekers
• Work permit statistics
• General purpose surveys (GPS)
• Specialised migration surveys
Typical shortcomings:
• Completeness, definitions (comparability), quality
• Limited depth and breadth of data
• Data on situation of migrants prior to migration lacking
• Data of relevant comparison groups lacking
Table 1: Number and distribution over time of using the
census to determine the international migrant stock
3. Measurement of Migraton: Stocks, Flows, Trends
Stocks: who is a migrant?
•
•
According to Place of Birth (POB)?
-
life time migrants (legal+illegal residence status)
-
no time reference, no policy handle
According to Citizenship criterion?
-
legal residence status
-
indicator with policy handle
-
multiple citizenship
•
Number of migrants according to citizenship usually
differs considerably from migrants according to POB
•
Size and composition characteristics for monitoring
social and economic integration
Table 2. Distribution of countries and areas according to the
type of data used to identify stocks of international migrants
Figure 1. Type of data used to estimate migration by region
Imputed
Citizensh.
Birthpl.
Africa
Asia
Europe L.Am. N.Am Oceania
Flows (cross-tabulations)
- POR by POB
-life time migration moves only
-underestimation of total migration moves (intermediate
destinations not recorded)
-not time-specific
- POR by POB by Duration of Residence
-migration cohorts: life time in-migrants by time of last arrival
- migration and development analysis
- POR by POR 1 or 5 years ago
-focus on recent arrivals
-UN recommends 5 years ago
-recall problem with fixed reference date
4. Trends in International Migration in the World and Europe
Suggested reference:
International Organization for Migration (IOM) and UN. 2003.
World Migration Report 2003. Geneva.
Figure 2.
Growth of migrant stocks in less
developed and more developed countries
Table 3. Estimates of (A) numbers of migrants (B)
proportional distribution (C) proportion of female
migrants in 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000
Table 3. (continued)
Table 3. (continued)
Table 4. World Population, International Migrants (stocks)
and Refugees, Worker Remittances (Source: UN Population
Division, 2002)
Country or area
Migrant stock
Workers' remittances
Net migration
Number of
L
(average annual)
Total Population
Total b/
Per cent
Number e Per cent of refugees a/
(thousands)
Number
Rate per (Millions of US
(thousands)
(thousands) t population
of GDP
dollars)
(thousands) 1,000 pop.
t
2000
1995-2000
2000
2000
2000
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
World
6,056,715
More developed regions
1,191,429
Less developed regions
4,865,286
Least developed countries
667,613
Africa
793,627
Asia
3,672,342
Europe
727,304
Eastern Europe
304,172
Northern Europe
95,076
Southern Europe
144,935
Western Europe
183,121
Latin America and the Caribbean 518,809
Central America
135,129
South America
345,738
Northern America
314,113
Oceania
30,521
Australia/New Zealand
22,916
174,781
104,119
70,662
10,458
16,277
49,781
56,100
24,812
7,453
4,999
18,836
5,944
1,070
3,803
40,844
5,835
5,555
2.9
8.7
1.5
1.6
2.1
1.4
7.7
8.2
7.8
3.5
10.3
1.1
0.8
1.1
13.0
19.1
24.2
15,868
3,012
12,857
3,066
3,627
9,121
2,310
41
413
578
1,277
38
28
9
635
69
63
0
2,321
-2,321
-306
-447
-1,311
769
124
134
229
282
-494
-347
-75
1,394
90
103
0.0
2.0
-0.5
-0.5
-0.6
-0.4
1.1
0.4
1.4
1.6
1.6
-1.0
-2.7
-0.2
4.6
3.0
4.6
62,239
12,535
49,704
..
8,755
24,205
11,854
..
..
..
..
17,131
..
..
..
293
..
0.2
0.1
0.7
..
1.6
0.3
0.1
..
..
..
..
0.8
..
..
..
0.1
..
Table 5. Foreign citizens, workers, and foreign born in OECD
countries in 1990 and 2001
Austria
Belgium
Czech Rep.
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Korea
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Norway
Portugal
Slovak Rep.
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
UK
Foreign citizens
1990
5,9
9,1
..
3,1
0,5
6,3
8,4
..
..
2,3
1,4
..
..
29,4
4,6
3,4
1,1
..
0,7
5,6
16,3
3.2
%
2001
9,4
8,2
2
5
1,9
..
8,9
7
1,1
3,9
2,4
1,4
0,5
37,5
4,3
4,1
2,2
0,5
2,7
5,3
19,7
4.4
Foreign workers
1990
7,4
7,1
..
2,4
..
6,2
7,1
..
..
2,6
1,3
..
..
45,2
3,1
2,3
1
..
0,6
5,4
18,9
3.3
%
2001
11
..
2
3,5
1,7
6,2
9,1
..
0,9
4,6
3,8
0,2
0,6
61,7
..
4,9
2
0,2
3,4
5,1
18,1
4.4
Foreign born
Year
%
2001
11
..
..
..
..
2001
6
2001
2,8
1990
10
..
..
..
..
2001
3
2000
6,8
..
..
..
..
..
..
2001
33
2001
10,4
2001
6,9
1991
4,6
..
..
1991
2,2
2001
11,5
1990
21,3
1999
7.5
Table 6. Origin: countries with largest number of refugees
(thousands, year 2000)
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Country
Afghanistan
Burundi
Iraq
Sudan
Angola
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Somalia
Congo, Dem. Rep. of
Viet Nam
Palestinian Territory
Eritrea
Refugees
3,810
554
530
490
471
450
440
392
353
349
333
Table 7. Destination: asylum countries with largest number
of refugees (thousands, year 2000)
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1-10
Country
Pakistan
Iran
Germany
Tanzania
United States
Yugoslavia, FR
Dem. Rep. of Congo
Sudan
China
Zambia
Combined (65%)
World
Refugees
2,199
1,868
903
647
516
400
362
349
295
284
7,824
12,030
Figure 3. Refugee populations in region of asylum, 1992-2001
Number of refugees (millions)
20
18
16
14
Oceania
12
North America
10
Latin America
8
Europe
6
Asia
4
Africa
2
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Figure 4. A brief history of international migration flows
Source:http://pstalker.com/migration/mg_map.htm#
Table 8. Net migration flows to European Union in 2000
EU-15
Belgium
Denmark
Germany
Greece
Spain
France
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Austria
Portugal
Finland
Sweden
UnitedKingdom
Population Natural
Net
Total Population Natural
Net
Total
1.1.2000 increase migration increase 1.1.2001 increase migration increase
%
%
%
(*1000)
376,455.2
372.4
680.4 1,052.8 377,507.9
0.10
0.18
0.28
10,239.1
5,330.0
82,163.5
10,542.8
39,441.7
59,225.7
3,776.6
57,679.9
435.7
15,864.0
8,102.6
9,997.6
5,171.3
8,861.4
59,623.4
10.9
9.0
-76.2
-2.0
27.2
240.6
23.1
-17.2
2.0
66.1
1.5
14.3
7.4
-3.0
68.7
12.1
10.1
105.3
23.9
20.8
55.0
20.0
181.3
3.6
53.1
17.3
11.0
2.4
24.4
140.0
23.1
19.2
29.1
21.9
48.0
295.6
43.1
164.1
5.6
119.2
18.8
25.3
9.8
21.4
208.7
10,262.2
5,349.2
82,192.6
10,564.7
39,489.6
59,521.3
3,819.7
57,844.0
441.3
15,983.1
8,121.3
10,022.8
5,181.1
8,882.8
59,832.1
Source: Eurostat Statistics in Focus, Population and social conditions, Theme 3 - 7/2002
0.11
0.17
-0.09
-0.02
0.07
0.41
0.61
-0.03
0.45
0.42
0.02
0.14
0.14
-0.03
0.12
0.12
0.19
0.13
0.23
0.05
0.09
0.53
0.31
0.83
0.33
0.21
0.11
0.05
0.28
0.23
0.23
0.36
0.04
0.21
0.12
0.50
1.14
0.28
1.29
0.75
0.23
0.25
0.19
0.24
0.35
Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and Common Wealth of
Independent States (CIS)
• 1989, 9 independent countries
1997, 27 independent countries (over 550 million people)
Between 1989-1997:
• Fewer than expected moved out of region (2.5 million)
• Over 9 million moved within or between new States
• Voluntary (repatriants) and forced movements (refugees
and internally displaced persons (IDP)
• By 1997, 4.7 million repatriants in CIS
• CEE/CIS increasingly transit-zones of international
migrants and refugees from Asia and Africa
• Problem: collection, compilation and dissemination of
good quality migration data and statistics
To conclude, some key figures for year 2000
Total world population: 6 billion
International migrants1: 175 million (2.9% of world
population)
Refugees:
12 million
IDPs:
6.4 million
1)
Living outside country of birth
Source: UN Statistics Division