Transcript Mesoscale Investigations and Modeling in the Northern Mid-Atlantic Paul J. Croft and Shing Yoh.

Mesoscale
Investigations and
Modeling in the
Northern Mid-Atlantic
Paul J. Croft and Shing Yoh
Mesoscale Variations…
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Operational interest & concern
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High Population Region & Customers
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Physiography, Land Use, Seasonal Progression
Characteristic Patterns & Phenomena
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Density, Diversity, Dependence
Climate regions & Transition Zones
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Watch, Warn, HWO, Others (hazards or not)
Behaviors in Space & Time
Specification Important
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Conceptual Understanding, Forecasts &
Operations, Verification, & Modeling
Items to consider…
Cool season severe weather
Winter season fog (Dec-Jan-Feb)
Air Quality Index (spring-summer)
October tropical cyclones (NJ)
Rain-snow line (Dec-Jan-Feb)
Sea breeze (spring-summer)
Summer season convective
initiation, distribution, coverage
Lightning patterns (Jun-Jul-Aug)
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HWHW
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HW
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Examine, from an operational perspective, the
types of data & analyses that would best assist a
forecaster in the spatial & temporal specification
of the resultant sensible weather conditions & to
determine how these vary with time as a function
of local effects (e.g., physiography), mesoscale
features, & the prevailing synoptic scale flow
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Tornado
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Wind
Hail
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10
5
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0
October
November
December
January
Month
February
March
80 Miles
Intention
All Severe Weather Reports by Month
# of Severe Weather Reports
All Storm Reports
W
W
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Select Significant Features/Issues
Relevance to Region & Users
Opportunity for Collaboration
Research Collective & Community
Methods to use…
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Composite Analysis
GIS Mapping
Observational Data
Remote Sensing Data
Online Data Sets
Select Parameters
Statistical Analysis
Evolution & Conceptual
…and need for modeling!
o Independent Study
o Students Partnering with Faculty
o External Support
Localized – Scattered - Widespread
Results & Features
Air Quality Monitoring Sites
Lackawanna
Orange
Luzerne
Westchester
Bronx
Essex
Hudson
King
Union
Lehigh
Hunderdon
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Middlesex
Berks
Burks
Mercer
Monmouth
Montgomery
Chester
Delaware
Ocean
Burlington
Camden
Gloucester
Cecil
Hartford
New Castle
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Atlantic
Baltimore
Cumberland
Baltimore City
Kent
High Pressure SouthEast
Kent
Anne Arundel
Prince George's
/
Sussex
Charles
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54.67
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57.47
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74.53
75.27
76.67
55.43
49.3470.47
70.07
55.34
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62.27
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46.87
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56.93
70.6
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76.87
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60.2
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61.13
47.07
54.53
60.73
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AQI Patterns
October Tropical
Rain-Snow Line
Sea Breeze “Family”
Convective Initiation,
Coverage, Lightning
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52.6
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0.4
0.8 Decimal Degrees
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Initiates, Evolution, Coverage
Synoptic Regime, Base State Flow
Rainfall Data for EWR
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Amount (inches)
Northampton
Bergen
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Passaic
Morris
Warren
Year
WRF: Operational & Research Investigations
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Grid size : 100x100x31
Grid spacing : 15 km
Model forecasts
start at 00Z (7:00 p.m. EST) using
NCEP NAM-ETA 00 UTC
analysis
Boundary conditions : every 6
hours from NCEP NAM-ETA 00
UTC forecast
(a) Temperature
T BIAS
T MAE
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2.5
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Aug
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Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
What – WRF ARW v2.0.3
Where – Northeastern US, centered
over New Jersey
Why – Mesoscale feature behaviors,
characteristics & dynamics
How – Students & Partners
Outcomes – Real-time data with
numeric analyses for operational
forecasting and research diagnostics
Kean University WRF 36h forecast
(2005/08 to 2006/06 Configuration)
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Model Physics
Microphysics: Ferrier microphysics
Long wave: RRTM scheme
Short wave: Dudhia scheme
Surface layer: Monin-Obukhov (Janjic-Eta)
Land surface: thermal diffusion
Boundary layer: YSU
Cumulus physics: Kain-Fritsch scheme
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Post analysis
wrf2gem: WRF netCDF to GEMPAK
converter
Unidata GEMPAK Analysis Program
Microsoft Excel
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P BIAS
P MAE
1.5
1
0.5
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-1.5
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
TD MAE
3.5
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2.5
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1.5
1
0.5
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Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
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Model Statistics
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Interpolated (Unidata GEMAPK gdgsfc)
model surface forecasts to 16 ASOS
observation sites (New Jersey and
surrounding cities)
Comparisons were made for hourly
WRF forecast 2 meter temperature, 2
meter dewpoint, sea level pressure and
10 meter wind with observations at
ASOS stations
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(c) SLP
TD BIAS
(b) Dewpoint
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Kean University WRF Configuration – now & future…
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Update to WRF ARW v2.1.2
WRF domain – expand grid size to 120x116x31
Grid Spacing held at 15 km
Model forecasts start at 00Z (7:00 p.m. EST) based on NCEP
NAM-WRF 00 UTC analysis
Boundary conditions: every 6 hours from NCEP NAM-WRF 00
UTC forecast
WRF Model Physics – unchanged
Addition of NJWXNET (high resolution mesoscale
observations
GIS for geographical & other physiographical databases
Vector Wind Error (Speed)
(d) Wind Speed
(e) Wind Direction
Scalar Wind MAE
1.8
1.6
1.4
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0.6
0.4
0.2
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Vector Wind Error (Direction)
360
270
180
90
0
Aug
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Relationships
Significant Phenomena with…
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Synoptic Regimes
Physiographic Features
Operational Analysis
Seasonal/Diurnal/Event Progression
Operational Relevance using…
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Behaviors & Timeline
Features & Characteristics
Family/Spectra of Phenomenal Attributes &
Conceptual Model for Numerical Modeling
Interactions with Features
Undergraduate Students…
The research investigations
form the basis of the
SECURED program…
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Student Educational Collective
for Undergraduate Research
Experiences and Development
at Kean University
Collectively…
 Kean University Operational
Undergraduate Research in Meteorology
& Professional Activities and
Collaborative Training
KU-OUR-METPACT
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Growth through Research in Operational
Weather – Training Holistically
GROWTH
Partners…
Department of Geology and Meteorology has established
a variety of partnerships in the region…
National Weather Service
Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist
Private Sector & Local Interests
Others…
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Tailor research to operational needs and outcomes
External & internal support (SpF Program Kean University)
Student stipends, supplies and/or equipment relative to the
research activities, conference travel, other costs
Operational Applications & Our Future
Outreach…
 Local Communities
 K-12 Education
 Kean University faculty,
students, non-majors…
 Professional
Organizations…
Future Work…
 Expansion of studies
 Collaborative planning
and performance of
research and professional
activities with students
 Numerical Modeling and
Investigations continue…
 Conceptual Model
development…
Thanks!
Acknowledgements
Department of Geology & Meteorology
Faculty & Staff, Students and Majors, Alumni
Kean University Meteorology Program
KU Upward Bound Program
Center for Earth Science Education
KU – Epsilon Corps Program