Transcript Crop Market Outlook Nov. 2, 2015 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist [email protected] 515-294-9911 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics.

Crop Market Outlook
Nov. 2, 2015
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
[email protected]
515-294-9911
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Corn Supply and Use
2012
2013
2014
2015
2015 Δ
97.3
95.4
90.6
88.4
-0.5
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
Yield
(bu./acre)
123.1
158.1
171.0
168.0
0.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,555
-30
Beg. Stocks
(mil. bu.)
989
821
1,232
1,731
-1
Imports
(mil. bu.)
160
36
32
30
0
Total Supply
(mil. bu.)
11,904
14,686
15,479
15,316
-31
Feed & Residual
(mil. bu.)
4,315
5,034
5,317
5,275
0
Ethanol
(mil. bu.)
4,641
5,134
5,207
5,250
0
Food, Seed, & Other
(mil. bu.)
1,397
1,369
1,359
1,380
0
Exports
(mil. bu.)
730
1,917
1,864
1,850
0
Total Use
(mil. bu.)
11,083
13,454
13,748
13,755
0
Ending Stocks
(mil. bu.)
821
1,232
1,731
1,561
-31
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.80
0.05
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2012
2013
2014
2015
2015 Δ
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.2
76.8
83.3
83.2
-1.1
Yield
(bu./acre)
40.0
44.0
47.5
47.2
0.1
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,042
3,358
3,927
3,888
-47
Beg. Stocks
(mil. bu.)
169
141
92
191
-19
Imports
(mil. bu.)
41
72
33
30
0
Total Supply
(mil. bu.)
3,252
3,570
4,052
4,109
-66
Crush
(mil. bu.)
1,689
1,734
1,875
1,880
10
Seed & Residual
(mil. bu.)
105
97
143
130
0
Exports
(mil. bu.)
1,317
1,647
1,843
1,675
-50
Total Use
(mil. bu.)
3,111
3,478
3,861
3,685
-40
Ending Stocks
(mil. bu.)
141
92
191
425
-25
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
14.40
13.00
10.10
9.15
0.00
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Yield Estimate
Top: 2015 Estimated Yields
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Objective Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Yield Estimate
Top: 2015 Estimated Yields
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Yield Estimate
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds
Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig
Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: 1250 pounds
Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Grind for Ethanol
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Ethanol Stocks
Source: EIA
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Corn Futures
3.81
3.58
Source: CME Group, 11/2/2015
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Soybean Futures
8.40
8.40
Source: CME Group, 11/2/2015
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
2015/16 Crop Margins
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
2016/17 Crop Margins
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Rain made grain, but we’re still debating how much
Exports weaken as dollar strengthens and China slows
Negative margins for 2015-2016 crops
2014/15 2015/16
USDA
USDA
Corn
Soybeans
$3.70
$10.10
$3.80
$9.15
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
2015/16
Futures
(11/2/15)
$3.58
$8.40
2016/17
Futures
(11/2/15)
$3.81
$8.40
Thank you for your time!
Any questions?
My web site:
http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/
Iowa Farm Outlook:
http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/
Ag Decision Maker:
http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics