Transcript The WWRP Polar Prediction Project Thomas Jung (chair) Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research WWRP October 2012

The WWRP Polar Prediction Project
Thomas Jung (chair)
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research
WWRP
October 2012
1
Outline
Background
Steering group
Mission statement
Research goals
Year of Polar Prediction
Recent developments
Outlook
International context
Summary
WWRP









2
Background



WWRP

November 2009: CAS recommended establishment of
an IPY legacy project
October 2010: WWRP workshop held in Norway
September 2011: THORPEX ICSC endorsed polar
prediction project
September 2011: Formation of a steering group
3
WWRP
WWRP-PPP Steering Group











Thomas Jung (chair)
Peter Bauer
Chris Fairall
David Bromwich
Trond Iversen
Marika Holland
Brian Mills
Pertti Nurmi
Ian Renfrew
Gregory Smith
Gunilla Svensson
SG2, Montreal, 27-28. March 2012




Mikhail Tolstykh
Paco Doblas Reyes (ex-officio)
Peter Lemke (ex-officio)
Neil Gordon (WMO consultant)
4
Background





WWRP

November 2009: CAS recommended establishment of
an IPY legacy project
October 2010: WWRP workshop held in Norway
September 2011: THORPEX ICSC endorsed polar
prediction project
September 2011: Formation of a steering group
December 2011: 1st SG meeting (discussion of
implementation plan)
March 2012: 2nd SG meeting (review of draft
implementation/science plan)
5
WWRP
Draft Implementation Plan
6
Mission Statement
WWRP
„Promote cooperative international research enabling
development of improved weather and environmental
prediction services for the polar regions, on time scales
from hourly to seasonal“
An important addition:
„This constitutes the hourly to seasonal research
component of the WMO Global Integrated Polar
Prediction System (GIPPS)“
7
Research Areas
Services
Societal and
Economic Research
Applications (SERA)
Verification
Underpinning research
Predictability and
Diagnostics
Teleconnections
WWRP
Forecasting system development
Observations
Modelling
Data Assimilation
Ensemble Forecasting
WWRP
Verification of ensemble forecasts
in the Arctic
Jung and Leutbecher (2007)
9
Mean temperature tendencies
WWRP
Tropics: Sea points
•
•
•
Arctic: Sea and sea ice points
ECMWF model
6-hourly initial tendencies
120 forecasts (DJF 1989-2010)
Figure courtesy of S. Serrar (AWI)
10
Temperature tendencies: Stdev
WWRP
Tropics: Sea points
Arctic: Sea and sea ice points
Figure courtesy of S. Serrar (AWI)
11
Role of Sea Ice in Medium-Range
Weather Forecasting
WWRP
T2m Difference: Observed Minus Persisted Sea Ice
Figure courtesy of P. Bauer (ECMWF)
12
Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)
Aim:
Intensive observational and modelling period to advance
polar prediction capabilities. This will be augmented by
research into forecast-stakeholder interaction, verification
and a strong educational component
WWRP
Important:
Needs to be aligned with other (planned) activities such
as MOSAiC.
13
WWRP
YOPP: Time line
14
Preparation phase
Prepara on Phase 2012-2016
WWRP
Develop Strategy
Establish
Planning Group
in 2012
Interna onal
YOPP Planning
Workshops
Stakeholder Engagement
Workshop (2014)
Present Plans to
Funding Agencies
Preparatory Research
(2012-2016)
Explore User
needs
Iden fy YOPP
Partners
(2013 & 2016)
Write
Implementa on
Plan (2013)
Explore Means
Of Funding
15
Year of Polar Predic on 2017-2018
WWRP
Year of Polar Prediction
Intensive
Intensive
Intensive
Observing Period
Modelling Period
Verifica on Period
Conprehensive
Reference
Sta ons
Extra
Observa ons
through YOPP
Satellite
Snapshot
Intensive User
Applica on/SERA Period
YOPP Summer School
High-resolu on
Forecasts
Post-processing
of Special Fields
Reforecasts for
verifica on and
diagnosis
Transpose AMIP
Antarc c
Testbed
Intensive
subseasonal and
seasonal
predic ons for
selected cases
Daily subseasonal
forecasts
Weekly seasonal
forecasts
16
WWRP
Consolidation phase
17
Other Activities
Polar prediction flyer
WWRP

18
Other Activities
Polar prediction brochure
Presentations (a total of 12 since December 2012)
Education and outreach: team up with APECS
WWRP



19
WWRP
Outlook (selected)
Month
Milestone
Oct 2012
Send out draft Implementation Plan
Nov 2012
Feedback from the community
Nov/Dec 2012
Revise and finalize implementation plan
Nov/Dec 2012
Make advertisement for trust fund
Dec 2012
3rd steering group meeting (full attendance!)
 Finalize implementation plan
 Discuss science plan
 Start planning for YOPP
 Develop plans for International Coordination
Office
 Develop education strategy
Jan 2013
Launch of the Polar Prediction Project and
International Coordination Office
Jun 2013
Workshop on Polar Prediction at ECMWF
20
WWRP
International context
21
Linkages with WCRP


WWRP

Background:
 WWRP: Sufficiently similar to have a joint project
 WCRP: Sufficiently different to have a joint project
Some truths in both statements
 Observing systems, model development, ensemble
methods etc.
 Weather forecasting vs. regional sea level change
projections
We need to find a plausible way to ensure
coordination!
22
The Global Integrated Polar Prediction
System (GIPPS)



WWRP

Has been proposed by EC-PORS
Global: International effort and poles have global
influence on systems (weather, climate, biological...)
Integrated: Reflects interconnections between system
and the System itself will be integrated (research,
observations and services)
Approved by Cg-XVI in 2011
23
WWRP
The three components of GIPPS
Short-term
Medium-term
Long-term
Hours to seasons
Years to decades
Centuries
WWRP
WCRP
WCRP
Options:
 Merge into one project
 Develop a strategy that ensures coordination:
International Coordination Office, joint expert groups
etc.
24
Summary

WWRP

WWRP Polar Prediction Project well on course
 Steering group has been formed
 Draft implementation plan has been developed
 PPP has been presented at many occasions
Major issues
 Trust fund
 Collaboration with WCRP
 Approach funding agencies
 Make sure that what has been written in the plans
will be delivered...
25
WWRP
Thank you!
26
Strategies to Achieve Research Goals





WWRP

Develop strong linkages with other initiatives
Strengthen linkages between academia, research
institutions and operational prediction centres
Establish linkages with space agencies and other data
providers
Establish and exploit special research data sets
Promote interactions and collaboration between
research and stakeholders
Foster education and outreach
27
SERA
Goal: Understand and evaluate the use of enhanced
prediction information and services in polar regions


WWRP

Link with forecast user community (two-way)
Communication of risk, opportunity and uncertainty
across user types
Estimation and analysis of historic and current use
 Develop/test framework to define and assess
expected polar and lower-latitude benefits in
relation to cost
 Monitor/evaluate actual decision-making behaviour,
costs and benefits
28
Verification
Goal: Establish and apply verification methods
appropriate for polar regions


WWRP



Verify existing forecasting systems in the polar regions
Develop key performance headline measures with
polar relevance to monitor progress
Devise methods that can be used to verify userrelevant key weather and climate phenomena in polar
regions (e.g. blizzards and fog-visibility)
Define an observation strategy to meet forecast
verification requirements
Develop forecast verification in observation space
using, for example, satellite data simulators
29
Predictability and Diagnostics
Goal: Determine predictability and identify key sources
of forecast errors in polar regions

WWRP


Determine
 Mechanisms providing predictability
 Instabilities of the polar climate system
 Structure of imperfections (analysis and model
error)
Apply/develop diagnostic techiques that help to
understand model error at the process level
Central: Explore the role of sea ice (time scales from
days to seasonal)
30
Background





WWRP


November 2009: CAS recommended establishment of
an IPY legacy project
October 2010: WWRP workshop held in Norway
September 2011: THORPEX ICSC endorsed polar
prediction project
September 2011: Formation of a steering group
December 2011: 1st SG meeting (discussion of
implementation plan)
March 2012: 2nd SG meeting (review of draft
implementation/science plan)
June 2012: Polar prediction project is approved by EC64
31
International Collaboration




WWRP


Forecasting brings together different communities!
Consultation on the Implementation Plan will increase
collaboration
Cross-membership (e.g. WWRP-PPP and EC-PORS)
Incentives
 YOPP
 Special data sets (establishment and use)
Workshops, conference meetings and summer
schools
International project office (AWI happy to host!)
32
Strengthening Linkages Between Academia,
Research Institutions and Operational Centres


WWRP


Modify funding schemes following UK, USA and
Canadian examples (e.g. researchers are required to
spend time at operational centres)
Provision of computing time, experimental support and
special data sets by operational centres
Ensure continual near-real-time availability (e.g. GTS)
of future operational and experimental campaign
observations
Committee work
33
Establish and Exploit Special Research
Data Sets

WWRP




Inventory of existing data sets: TIGGE, YOTC,
reforecasts, DEMETER, Athena etc.
Formulate special requirements and devise special
experiments together with other working groups (e.g.
WGNE and SG Subseasonal and Seasonal
Prediction)
Limited value from case studies!
Need for long sustainable, openly accessible data sets
High-resolution reanalysis
34
Others Strategic Issues



WWRP


Write BAMS paper about WWRP Polar Prediction
Project
Prepare WWRP-PPP brochure for funding agencies
and stakeholders
Linkages with space agencies and data providers
 Liaise with WMO Polar Space Task Group
Promote interaction and communication between
researchers and stakeholders
 Identification of stakeholders: NMHS, Arctic
Council, private sector companies etc.
 Organize meetings to bring communities together
Education and outreach (collaboration with APECS)
35
Implementation Plan
Table of Contents
1.
2.
3.
4.
WWRP
5.
6.
7.
8.
Introduction
Mission statement
Benefits
Research Plan Goals
•
Societal and Research Applications (SERA)
•
Verification
•
Predictability and Diagnostics
•
Teleconnections
•
Modelling
•
Ensemble Forecasting
•
Data Assimilation
•
Observations
Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)
Strategies to Achieve the Goals
•
Develop and Maintain Strong Linkages with Other Initiatives
•
Strengthen Linkages Between Academia, Research Institutions and
Operational Centres
•
Establish Linkages with Space Agencies and Other Data Providers
•
Establish and Exploits Special Research Data Sets
•
Promote Interaction and Collaboration Between Research and Stakeholders
•
Foster Education and Outreach
Implementation Schedule
36
...
Mean T Ensemble Forecast Spread
Ensemble Spread
RMS An Increment
200 hPa
WWRP
1000 hPa
Figure courtesy of P. Bauer (ECMWF)
37
WWRP
WWRP-PPP Steering Group











Thomas Jung (chair)
Peter Bauer
Chris Fairall
David Bromwich
Trond Iversen
Marika Holland
Brian Mills
Pertti Nurmi
Ian Renfew
Gregory Smith
Gunilla Svensson




Mikhail Tolstykh
Paco Doblas Reyes (ex-officio)
Peter Lemke (ex-officio)
Neil Gordon (WMO consultant)
38
Implementation Plan
Table of Contents
1.
2.
3.
4.
WWRP
5.
6.
7.
8.
Executive Summary
Introduction
Mission statement
Benefits
Research Plan Goals
•
Societal and Research Applications (SERA)
•
Verification
•
Predictability and Diagnostics
•
Teleconnections
•
Modelling
•
Ensemble Forecasting
•
Data Assimilation
•
Observations
Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)
Strategies to Achieve the Goals
•
Develop and Maintain Strong Linkages with Other Initiatives
•
Strengthen Linkages Between Academia, Research Institutions and
Operational Centres
•
Establish Linkages with Space Agencies and Other Data Providers
•
Establish and Exploits Special Research Data Sets
•
Promote Interaction and Collaboration Between Research and Stakeholders
•
Foster Education and Outreach
Implementation Schedule
39
...
WWRP
Deterministic Skill: Z500 Arctic
Jung and Leutbecher (2007)
40
WWRP
International Collaboration
41
WWRP
Benefit Areas
42
WWRP
Benefit Areas (cont‘d)
Jung et al. (2010)
43
Stochastic Sea Ice Parametrizations
WWRP
Ensemble Spread
Interannual variability
Juricke et al., in preparation
44
WWRP
New TIGGE Products (cont‘d)
60S-90S
Figure courtesy of Mio Matsueda (Oxford)
45
WWRP
Topograhic Jets and Resolution
Jung and Rhines (2007)
46
WWRP
Deterministic Skill: Z500 Antarctic
Jung and Leutbecher (2007)
47
WWRP
Importance of sea ice forecasts
48
WWRP
Scale dependent predictability
Figure courtesy of A. Simmons (ECMWF)
49
WWRP
Oceanic response to high-resolution
atmospheric forcing
Eden and Jung (2006)
50
WWRP
Scale dependent predictability
Jung and Rhines (2007)
51
Synoptic eddy activity and resolution
WWRP
T95-ERA40
T511-ERA40
Jung et al. (2006)
52
WWRP
Synoptic eddy activity and resolution
Jung et al. (2006)
53
Predictability of sea ice anomalies
23. August 2006
WWRP
24. August 2005
Figure courtesy of Leif Toudal Pedersen
EOS Aqua AMSR-E ice concentration
New TIGGE Products
WWRP
Raise awareness: there are low hanging fruits...
Figure courtesy of Mio Matsueda (Oxford)
55