Transcript The World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Long Term Plan including the development of Regional Environmental Prediction Systems WWRP Gilbert Brunet and Dave Parsons CAS-XV Technical Conference Incheon, Republic of.

The World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)
Long Term Plan
including the development of
Regional Environmental Prediction Systems
WWRP
Gilbert Brunet
and
Dave Parsons
CAS-XV Technical Conference
Incheon, Republic of Korea, 16-17 November 2009,
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WWRP
Long-term objectives of the WWRP
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To improve public safety and economic productivity by accelerating
research on the prediction of high-impact weather;
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To demonstrate improvements in the prediction of weather, with
emphasis on high-impact events through the exploitation of advances in
scientific understanding, observational network design, data assimilation
and modelling techniques and information systems;
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To improve understanding of atmospheric processes of importance to
weather forecasting through the organization of focused research
programmes (e.g., WWRP Strategic Plan);

To encourage the utilization of relevant advances in weather prediction
systems to the benefit of all WMO Programmes and all Members; and
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To maintain a strong focus on training opportunities for young scientists,
so that as many countries as possible will be able to contribute to and
benefit from the research advances.
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WWRP
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WWRP Long Term Challenges:
Nowcasting Research (NR)
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Use the latest observational technologies to detect
and forecast weather over the 0-6 hour time frame
for rapidly evolving small scale phenomena that
realize high-impact over short periods.
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Develop automated approaches for the rapid
detection and effective dissemination of information;
and
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Develop linkages and on-going compatibility with
longer time scale forecasts in the context of a unified
approach to forecasting.
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WWRP
Forecast Accuracy
The short term forecasting problem
Merged
FCST
NWP
Nowcast
Model --radar data
Extrapolation
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Forecast Period (hrs)
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Region has large vulnerability to
convective weather
WWRP
Beijing ‘08
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Outcomes of
WWRP Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) and Research
Development Project (RDP) for Beijing 08
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Multi-year effort that significantly improved the nowcasting
capabilities of the international partners for prediction of warm
season rainfall
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Transfer of nowcasting and mesoscale ensemble prediction
technology to China and Shanghai MHEWS
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Societal and Economic Research and Applications (SERA)
component with multiple users
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Research and operational experience in high resolution modeling
and mesoscale ensembles in convective rainfall
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More rainfall than normal and six events delayed. Close call on
opening ceremony
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Accumulated Precipitation
( 04pm Aug.8—06am Aug. 9)
WWRP
National Stadium
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WWRP Long Term Challenges:
Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research (MWFR)
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WWRP
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Promote weather forecasting research on the meso-scale, and
strengthen international cooperation, knowledge transfer and
capacity building in this field;
Incorporate high resolution modelling within nowcasting
systems;
Improve sub-grid scale physics parameterization in
collaboration with THORPEX and Working Group on Numerical
Experimentation (WGNE); and
Integrate Earth-system modelling with mesoscale NWP models
for atmospheric chemistry, oceanic and surface applications
and their evaluation in weather forecast mode with lead time of
few hours to 2-day.
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European Coordinated Experiments 2007
Convective and Orographicallyinduced Precipitation Study
(COPS), WWRP) Research and
Development Project (RDP)
Period: 01.06. – 31.08.2007
Wulfmeyer et al. BAMS 2008
General Observations Period
(GOP) Period: full year of 2007
(Crewell et al. MetZet 2009)
Transport and Chemical
Conversion in Convective
Systems (COPS-TRACKS)
Period: 16.07. – 02.08.2007
WWRP
Atmospheric Radiation
Measurement (ARM) Program
Mobile Facility (AMF)
Period: 01.04. – 31.12.2007
European THORPEX Regional
Campaign 2007 (ETReC 2007)
Period: 01.07. – 01.08.2007
EUMETSAT special satellite
operation modes and data
Period: 01.06. – 31.08.2007
(Aoshima et al. MetZet 2008)
Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and
Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the
Alpine region (D-PHASE),
WWRP Forecast and Demonstration Project (FDP)
Period: 01.06. – 30.11.2007
(Rotach et al. BAMS 2009)
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D-PHASE End-to-End Forecast System
• 7 probabilistic and 23
high-resolution
deterministic atmospheric models
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• 7 coupled hydrological
models (deterministic
and probabilistic)
WWRP Working Group on Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research
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Verification Research develops techniques targeted toward
high-resolution forecasts
2.2 km
WWRP
7 km
Windward/lee effect
D-PHASE/COPS Model Evaluation
WWRP Working Group on Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research
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WWRP Long Term Challenges:
Verification Research (VR)
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WWRP
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Promote and provide training on verification
methods and encourage:
 (a) the appropriate selection and use of
verification approaches for specific evaluation
problems;
 (b) the implementation of improved methods in
operational and research settings;
Advance verification methods for forecasts of
probability distributions for high-impact weather;
To develop techniques targeted toward highresolution forecasts; and
Assess uncertainty in verification statistics.
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Mesoscale Forecasting Research in Canada (IPY-THORPEX, Winter
Olympics 2010 and Great Lakes and St-Lawrence River FDP):
Limited Area Modelling at 2.5 km
Nares Strait Domain
Lancaster Strait Domain
WWRP
Arctic domain
West domain
Atlantic domain
Eastern Domain
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Mesoscale Forecasting Research in Canada (extra-tropical hurricane
transition)
Nares Strait Domain
Lancaster Strait Domain
Arctic domain
WWRP
Moving grid
West domain
Atlantic domain’
Eastern Domain
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WWRP Long Term Challenges:
Tropical Meteorology Research (TMR)
Contribute to advancing the representation of tropical convection and its
interaction with the large-scale circulation (including mid-latitude)
through participation in the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) project
initiated by the WCRP and THORPEX;
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Conduct activities to advance understanding and capability to predict
tropical cyclones and monsoons in collaboration with the THORPEX
programme, the MWFR and the NR; and
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Promote tropical meteorology research among the WMO members that
will lead to improved observation, analysis, forecast, and warning
systems for high-impact weather events in the tropics.
WWRP
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WWRP Long Term Challenges:
WWRP
Societal and Economic Research and Applications (SERA)
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Develop, review and promote societal and
economic-related demonstration projects focused on
high-impact weather, information and decision
making;
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Advance the communication of weather forecast
uncertainty, economic and societal value ;
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Develop user-relevant verification methods; and
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Develop decision support systems and tools.
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Canadian Wind Energy Atlas and
its validation
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Bias: 0.02 m/s
RMS error: 0.88 m/s
Correlation coefficient: 0.80
WWRP
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Atlas published in Oct. 2004
Wind atlas website: 100 000+ visitors/year
since 2004
Validation with 192 met. stations
www.windatlas.ca
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and the list of
environmental prediction
applications continues…
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To protect Human Health
- Daily and High Impact Weather Forecasts
- Water quality/quantity forecasts
- Air Quality Forecasts
- Flooding conditions
- Urban meteorology (heat wave, security)
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For government efficiency and effectiveness in
delivering public and national security services
WWRP
- Operations, domestically and internationally
- Coast Guard operations, ice and storm surge forecasts
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and …
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For energy production, distribution and
strategic network management
- Wind energy climatology
- Wind power forecasts for wind farms
nationally
- Peak power demand forecasts in heat waves
or cold spells to better manage grids and
distribution networks
- Regional climate change scenarios for long
term watershed management (reservoirs) so
that strategic funding decisions can be made
by financial syndicates
WWRP
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For other industrial sectors
- Transport (e.g., road, maritime and aviation
security)
- Tourism and Recreation (e.g., avalanche
forecasting, seasonal temperature)
- Agriculture (e.g., soil mosisture, futures
market, pest control, micro-farming and
droughts)
- Construction
- Forestry (e.g., pest control and forest fire)
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WWRP
and finally …
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For validation and enforcement of international protocols, international emergencies
- Volcanic Ash modeling
- Nuclear Test Ban Treaty
- Contaminant trajectories
- Water level regulation and adaptive management
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For the health of people and sustainability of ecosystems
- In climate change scenario modes, we can now project decades ahead the state of major
watershed and surrounding ecosystems
- We can simulate long range transport of toxics and pollutants from any part of the globe
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WWRP
World Weather Research Programme
Strategic Plan
« At the dawn of this new century,
significant research and development
challenges remain to be met before
acceptable meteorological and
environmental forecasts can be
produced worldwide over every spatial
scale (from urban to planetary) and
time scale (from a few minutes to
seasons). The success of this
endeavour will depend, of course, on
the collaboration, commitment,
excellence and strength of the weather,
climate and Earth-system research
communities. On this point, the 20th
century track record provides a solid
base for confidence »
Available on the WWRP webpage at www.wmo.int
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