Transcript (II) THE MUNDELL-FLEMING MODEL LECTURE 3: THE MODEL WITH A FIXED EXCHANGE RATE Keynesian Model of the trade balance TB & income Y. . Key.

(II) THE MUNDELL-FLEMING MODEL
LECTURE 3:
THE MODEL WITH A FIXED EXCHANGE RATE
Keynesian Model of the trade balance TB & income Y.
.
Key assumption: P fixed => Y ≠ 𝑌.
Mundell-Fleming model
Key additional assumption:
international capital flows KA respond to interest rates i.
Questions:
Effect of fiscal expansion or other Δ𝐴 .
Effect of monetary expansion.
Recall the Keynesian model of the trade balance
TB is a function of the exchange rate & income:
TB = 𝑋 𝐸 - mY.
We now embody E effects (whether via exports or imports) in 𝑋;
and we assume the Marshall-Lerner condition holds:
𝑑𝑋
𝑑𝐸
> 0.
Determination of income
Trade Balance: TB = 𝑋(E) – mY.
Aggregate output = domestic Aggregate Demand + net foreign demand:
Y
=
A(i, Y)
where
𝑑𝐴
𝑑𝑖
<0 and
+
𝑑𝐴
𝑑𝑌
TB(E, Y),
> 0.
More specifically, let A(i, Y) = Ā - b(i) + cY ,
where the function -b( ) captures the negative effect of the
interest rate i on investment spending, consumerdurables, etc.
Combining equations,
Y =
A(i, Y) + TB(E, Y )
= Ā - b(i) + cY + 𝑋 𝐸 - mY.
Now solve to get the IS curve:
Y =
Ā − b(i) + 𝑋
𝐸
𝑠+𝑚
where s  1–c is the marginal propensity to save.
IS curve: An inverse relationship between i and Y
consistent with supply = demand in the goods market.
IS: Y =
i
IS
𝐴 − 𝑏𝑖 + 𝑋
𝑠+𝑚
IS'
Δ𝐴/(𝑠 + 𝑚)
Y
An increase in spending, Ā, e.g., a fiscal expansion,
shifts IS to the right by the multiplier 1/(s+m).
The LM curve: Money supply = money demand.
𝑀1
=
𝑃
i
L(i, Y)
where
LM
→
𝑑𝐿
𝑑𝑖
< 0,
𝑑𝐿
𝑑𝑌
>0.
LM´
A monetary
expansion
(M1↑) shifts
the LM curve
to the right.
Y
• Do central banks actually set the money supply?
• Supposedly in the 1980s heyday of monetarism they set M1.
• Also the monetary base made a comeback after 2008: Quantitative Easing.
Y
The Mundell-Fleming equations with a fixed exchange rate
IS: Y =
𝐴 − 𝑏𝑖 + 𝑋
𝑠+𝑚
LM:
IS
𝑀1
=
𝑃
L(i, Y)
LM
i
Y
Prof.J.Frankel
Monetary expansion in the Mundell-Fleming model: M1↑
IS: Y =
𝐴 − 𝑏𝑖 + 𝑋
𝑠+𝑚
LM:
IS
𝑀1
𝑃
= L(i, Y)
LM
i
LM'
Or think of the
central bank
setting i directly.
Y
Prof.J.Frankel
Spending expansion in the Mundell-Fleming model: 𝐴↑
IS: Y =
IS
𝐴 − 𝑏𝑖 + 𝑋
𝑠+𝑚
IS'
LM:
𝑀1
𝑃
= L(i, Y)
Taylor
rule
i
LM
Or the central bank may
follow a Taylor Rule:
setting i systematically
in response to Y & inflation.
Y
Prof.J.Frankel
The Mundell-Fleming model introduces capital flows
IS
LM
BP=0
i
Y
BP ≡ TB + KA
TB = 𝑋 − mY
BP=0:
New addition: capital flows
respond to interest rate differential
KA = 𝐾𝐴 + κ (𝑖−𝑖 ∗)
where κ 
𝑑(𝐾𝐴)
, capital mobility.
𝑑(𝑖−𝑖∗)
𝑋 − mY + 𝐾𝐴 + κ 𝑖−𝑖 ∗ = 0
We want to graph BP = 0.
Solve for interest differential:
(i-i*) =
Prof.J.Frankel
1
κ
[(−𝐾𝐴−𝑋] +
𝑚
( )Y.
κ
BP=0:
(i-i*) =
1
κ
[(−𝐾𝐴 − 𝑋−𝑀 ]
+
𝑚
( )Y
κ
.
The slope is (m/𝜿).
κ=0
i
𝜿>0
i
BP=0
𝜿 >> 0
i
BP=0
Surplus
BP=0
Deficit
Y
Y
Y
Capital mobility gives some slope to the BP=0 line:.
A rise in income and the trade deficit is consistent with BP=0 …
if higher interest rates attract a big enough capital inflow.
Prof.J.Frankel
Application: Why did many developing countries find
themselves with BoP surpluses during 2003-08 & 2010-13?
• Strong economic performance (especially Asia)
-- IS shifts right.
• Easy monetary policy in US and other
major industrialized countries (low i*)
-- BP shifts down.
• Boom in mineral & agricultural commodities
(esp. Africa & Latin America)
-- BP shifts right.
Causes of BoP Surpluses in Developing Countries
I.
1990-1997,
2003-08 &
2010-13
“Pull” Factors (internal causes)
1. Monetary stabilization
=> LM shifts up
2. Removal of capital controls => κ rises
3. Spending boom
=> IS shifts out/up
II.
“Push” Factors (external causes)
1.
Low interest rates in rich countries
=> i* down =>
2.
Boom in export markets =>
•
}
BP
shifts
out/
down