Transcript Define the term “linkage institutions.” Institutions that serve as a means by which individuals can express preferences regarding the development of public policy.

Define the term “linkage institutions.”
Institutions that serve as a means by which
individuals can express preferences regarding
the development of public policy. Examples
include the media or political parties
Public opinion is the collective
opinion of large numbers of people
Simoncini is
awesome!
Public opinion is particularly important in a
democracy if we understand democracy to be
fundamentally about the rule of the people.
For the people to rule, the government must
hear their voice. In a real democracy there
must be a close match between public opinion
and government policies and actions
But remember that Hamilton and I
worried that the public’s passions
would infringe on liberty and that
public opinion would be
susceptible to radical and
frequent shifts.
• 2/3 or more of government officials
doubted that the public was sufficiently
informed
• A substantial majority of federal
government officials do not hold the
abilities of the public in high regard
• Several decades of polling have
indicated that most ordinary Americans do
not know much about or care about
politics
Now, he’s what I call
HOT. SSSSSS
So, do people always
think the same way
about all issues?
You
bet,
Simon
.
Not at all, Paula. And Simoncini is
now going to give us some important
terms to remember.
Distribution: the proportion
of the population that holds
a particular opinion—such as
52% of the people believe the
president is doing a good job.
Consensus: a substantial percentage
of the public feels a certain way on
a particular issue—93% of OHS
Students like having an open campus.
Polarization—a large portion of the
population feels at different ends of
the political spectrum on a given
issue: Vietnam War or abortion
Salience—the extent to which people
believe an issue is important to them;
but salience can change over time
Hello. My name is George
Gallup and I helped
revolutionize measuring
public opinion with my
pioneering of reliable
polling methods. Who can
tell Simoncini what polling
is?
Yo! Check it out. Polling is
surveying a population on an
issue—it’s the most reliable way
of measuring what the public
thinks.
Hey, that Katie’s HOT! That
face lift she had really
worked wonders. I wonder if
she would speak to Hillary. .
.
That’s right. Heck! I,
President Bill Clinton, made
most of my policies based
on polls of the people.
And, Mr. President, we
at CBS News, in 1967,
began exit polls—a
way to make an early
prediction of who won
an election.
So, how do pollsters get their
information?
Several ways, Ryan.
Some methods we use
are in-person interviews,
telephone interviews
and mail questionnaires.
Hey Gallup, don’t
pollsters use
sampling? I’m not
sure what that is.
Check it out, Simon.
Sampling is the
choosing of a group of
people to participate in
a poll.
My hairline is really
receding,but, HEY, the
shirt is hecka cool!
All right you people.
Now we are going to
discuss sampling.
Surveys
Most practical way to
gather data on the
attitudes, beliefs, and
experiences of large
numbers of people.
Interviews, questionnaires, combination
Wording of questions is important in
sampling
Avoid leading wording
Closed-ended or forced-choice
questions may not always reveal
what people are thinking on their
own
Simoncini is an awesome instructor.
Strongly
Disagree
Disagree Not Sure
Agree Strongly
Agree
Proper sampling is based on
randomly selecting people to survey
Random sampling means that every
individual has an equal chance of
being selected
Margin of error—the sample accurately
reflects the population within a
certain percentage—usually plus or
minus 3 percent for a sample of at
least 1,500 individuals
Now that you have received a
brief overview on polling, you are
going to create, administer and
analyze data obtained from your
own polls.
Groups of 3-4
Create a poll on a topic of national
political interest
Administer it to 15-20 people
Analyze the data and write a report about
the poll and what you learned.
So, what have we pollsters as
well as scholars and journalists
noted about Americans’ trust in
government and a decline in
political efficacy?
In the U. S. there has been a long-term,
steady decline in trust in government,
and a decline in political efficacy—the
feeling that people can make a
difference in what government does and
how government will respond to their
concerns.
So, what have we pollsters as
well as scholars and journalists
noted about Americans’ trust in
government and a decline in
political efficacy?
2000 poll:
•56% of Americans believe the federal
Government does not care what people
(like me) think;
•61%: government is run for big interests
So, how do people form their
political ideology and
opinions?
Through political
socialization: family
beliefs, ideas learned in
school, job experiences;
influences from income,
age, gender, race and
geographic region.
So, where do we form most
of our political opinions?
Well, Beaver,
most people
tend to take
on the same
political
ideology as
their parents.
Yes, students, and a
political predisposition
is a characteristic of
individuals that is
predictive of political
behavior.
Yeah, but don’t forget that
recent research suggests that
the key period in forming
political beliefs is during the late
teens or early 20s.
Also, don’t forget that poor
people and minorities tend to
be more liberal while some
wealthier people tend to be
conservative. The middle
class, well they depend on
other factors like family and
education.
Political research:
African-Americans: 69% Democratic
(2008: 95% voted for Obama)
More liberal on economic issues but
conservative on some social issues
Hispanics
a. Cubans: conservative/Republican
b. All others: liberal/Democratic
(2008: 67% voted for Obama)
Asians: more educated/economically
successful but less likely to vote;
Socially and economically
conservative but Democratic
(2008: 62% voted for Obama)
Miss Becky as Judge
Judy, here. You can
see how WE have
changed. So how
have American
sectional differences
moderated in the
past few decades?
The South is becoming less distinct from the
rest of the U. S.
Large in-migration has diminished
a sense of regional identity
Tremendous economic change
Gap in African American voter registration
no greater in South than in the rest of the U. S.
Politically in South, Blacks vote more with the
Democratic Party and whites tend to vote more
with the Republican Party
OK, Judge Judy.
So why has there
been such a
dramatic reversal in
the South?
Pay attention, Klinger!
Because Democrats
today, nationwide,
advocate civil rights, Frank
Matthews and the boys
down South gravitated to
the GOP. Also, during the
Vietnam war, a lot of
southern voters felt the
antiwar efforts of a lot of
Democrats were
unpatriotic.
Students, it’s secret agent Lindsay Dunn, your
favorite TA, disguised as the Sonora prom
queen. Today you will report on your polls
and we’ll discuss current events.
Students, it’s secret agent Lindsay Dunn, your
favorite TA, disguised as the Sonora prom
queen. Today we’ll continue to look at
political ideology after completing our review
of regional political differences.
Nowadays,
Southerners identify
with the Republican
emphasis on family
values, opposition to
taxes, and law-andorder issues.
Hippie Becky here.
Remember, people on
the Pacific (or left) Coast
tend to resemble
northeasterners—on the
liberal side of things.
And, except for
folks in
Colorado,
Rocky
Mountain folks
tend to be quite
conservative.
Political research:
Education: generally considered the
strongest single predictor of participation
in politics.
Gender: about 10% more women
identify as Democrats compared to men
Age: younger—less likely to identify
with a party; lean Democratic
Over 60—more critical of government
Religion: Catholics: traditionally
Democratic but now resemble the
majority of Americans
Jews: 54% Democratic; social liberals
Evangelicals: Republican (52%-32%)
Mormons: Republican (very conservative)
While the Democrats
and Republicans have
strong national party
organizations, many
Americans, although
Not that
belonging to parties, do
type of
not strongly identify
party,
Tommy.
with those parties.
Wow! Did someone say
party???
In fact, among the
public, many people
change the party
they vote for from
election to election.
In 1992 this
situation was called
the “soccer mom”
vote—young to
middle-age women
who voted for Bill
Clinton because he
appealed to them
as a person.
Miss Becky and I share
the same political
ideology. Would
someone please define
the term ideology?
A person’s beliefs or ideas about political values
and the role of government—how government
should work and how it actually works.
OK, so we’re
liberals. What
tend to be our
general views
about stuff?
Classical liberals:
Fought to minimize the role of government
Stressed individual rights and perceived
government as the primary threats to
rights and liberties
Favored limited government
Perception of the need for government has
changed
Contemporary liberals
Believe in the positive uses of government
to bring about justice and equality of opportunity
Wish to preserve rights of the individual &
the right to own property, but are willing to have
government intervene in the economy to remedy
defects of capitalism
Believe conservatives act in self-interest
following the maxim: “Let the government take
care of the rich and the rich, in turn, will take
care of the weak.”
Believe all are equal and equality of opportunity
is essential
We are traditional
conservatives.
What tend to be
our views?
Property rights and belief in free enterprise
Keep government small (national in particular)
except for national defense
More pessimistic view of human nature
People need strong leadership, firm laws, and
strict moral codes
Government must ensure order
Failures engineered their own failure
Conserve status quo and change only in
moderation
Pro business
Oppose higher taxes; resist business
regulation
Government: encourage family values
Government: protect from foreign enemies
Government: preserve law and order
Government: enforce private contracts, foster
competitive markets, encourage fair trade
Oppose “big government”
Economic (fiscal) Conservatives:
emphasize economic liberty and
freedom from government interference
in the economy; free market is the
best route to economic efficiency
Economic liberals: government should
ensure equality of opportunity by
regulating potentially damaging business
practices
Social conservatives and liberals
disagree over issues such as:
abortion
gay marriage
prayer in public schools
pornography
crime prevention and punishment
political dissent
The best way to discuss
ideology is to show the
political spectrum.
Nolan
Chart
The Political Spectrum: examples
(2007)
So, where do moderates
stand on those issues?
We moderates tend to
agree with liberals on
some issues and with
conservatives on other
issues. For example, I’m
pro choice but against
high taxes.