Transcript A presentation for the SAOIM 2014 conference Understanding the Past; Being Honest about the Present; Planning for the Future Brian Kelly, Cetis.

A presentation for the SAOIM 2014 conference
Understanding the Past; Being Honest about the Present;
Planning for the Future
Brian Kelly, Cetis
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Understanding the Past; Being Honest about
the Present; Planning for the Future
A presentation for the SAOIM 2014 conference
Further details: http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/saoim-2014-lets-predict-the-future-workshop/
Talk to be given by
Brian Kelly, Cetis at
the SAOIM 2014
conference in
Pretoria, South
Africa on 5 June
2014
About Me
#saoim
Brian Kelly:
• Innovation Advocate at Cetis (Centre for Educational
Technology, Interoperability and Standards)
• Based at University of Bolton
• Was UK Web Focus, UKOLN from 1996-2013
• Role as a national advisory post to UK universities
• Long-standing Web evangelist (since 1993)
• Prolific blogger (~1,300 posts since Nov 2006)
• Prolific speaker (~425 talks since 1996)
• Author of peer-reviewed papers on various Web topics
• Member of NMC Horizon Report Panel of Experts
Contact details: Twitter: @briankelly
email: [email protected]
Twitter:
#saoim3
About This Talk
#saoim
How should libraries predict and plan for
technological developments? When it comes to
future planning, how can libraries identify the
‘weak signals’ which may indicate possible
significant changes?
If we look back to the past to our childhood we
may have had over-optimistic views on benefits
which technological developments would provide.
This talk describes a methodology used by Cetis in
their work with Jisc to systematise the prediction
of technological developments.
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About This Talk
#saoim
What we can learn from:
 Expectations from the past
 Limitations of futurologists
The need to:
Joe Murphy: “I’ll ask
questions about future of
libraries”
Me: “I’ll describe a
methodology for asking
the questions and
interpretting the findings”
 Gather evidence
 Solicit broad feedback on interpretations of the
evidence
 Be receptive to the implications of new technologies
and the broader environment
Relevant horizon-scanning report
Conclusions
(What, specifically, does the future hold?) If time!
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In the Future
#saoim
Data will be Big
Image from Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA
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In the Future
#saoim
Content and services will be open
Web is Agreement by Paul Downey.
CC BY
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In the Future
#saoim
We will own our services and content
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In the Future
#saoim
We will see a growth in use of online services
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In the Future
#saoim
We will see a growth in use of online services
with increased access on mobile devices
FinTech Mentor Huy Nguyen Trieu shares his views on
new opportunities in the FinTech space, April 2014
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In the Future
#saoim
We will see a growth in use of online services
and content and services hosted in the Cloud
NASA Turns to Online Giant Amazon for Cloud Computing
Services for Mars Rover Curiosity, August 2012
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In the Future
#saoim
We will see the importance of librarians and
information professionals acknowledged
Causes, ALA
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In the Future
#saoim
We will see greater investment in libraries
£298k investment!
The Library is committed to enhancing
its services and facilities to deliver the
very best library experience for users.
During 2013/14 we are directing
£298k to boost access to core
materials. This sum is in addition to
Enhancing Core Library Collections 2013/14, the millions spent on library resources
University of Exeter, UK
across the Colleges.
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In the Future
#saoim
We will travel to work by monorail
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In the Future
#saoim
We will use jetpacks at weekends (or maybe for
document delivery!)
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When Did You Stop Believing?
#saoim
At what point did you become sceptical?
Big data
Value of librarians
Open content
Greater investment
Open source
Growth in online
Monorails
Jetpacks
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Top Tips for Predicting the Future
#saoim
Tip no. 1
You will be inclined to believe in predictions
which reflect personal beliefs and interests or
reflects the organisational or sectoral culture
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Looking at the Futurologists
#saoim
Gartner report
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Gartner
#saoim
Beware vested
interests which
may be
threatened by
implications of
predictions
Gartner May Be Too Scared
To Say It, But the PC Is
Dead, Mark Hachman,
Readwrite Web, 5 April
2013
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#saoim
We commission
reports from
experts in the field
PDF
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#saoim
We commission
reports from
experts in the field
… is an information professional who has specialized in the
fields of electronic information provision for over 20 years.
In recent years, he has specialized in metadata for digital
libraries, in which capacity he is a member of the editorial
board for the METS (Metadata Encoding and Transmission
Standard) standard for digital library metadata.
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Looking at Other Sectors
#saoim
What can we learn from the changes
in the music industry?
• Record labels & music distributors
reluctance to respond to:
 Growth in networked music services
 Users willing to accept limitations of file
formats (MP3)
• New players (Apple, Amazon, Google)
enter the market
Were reports commissioned which (mistakenly) provided
evidence of importance of high fidelity formats over MP3?
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Looking at Other Sectors
#saoim
Are libraries following
the path of HMV or
Apple/Amazon/
Google?
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Top Tips for Predicting the Future
#saoim
Tip no. 2
You can’t always trust futurologists!
(they may bring their sectoral, organisational
or personal prejudices with them)
Caveat:
Their expertise may also be valuable and correct,
but they may miss significant developments
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JISC Observatory
#saoim
JISC Observatory:
• JISC-funded initiative
• Systematises processes for anticipating and
responding to projected future trends & scenarios
• Provided by JISC Innovation Support Centres at UKOLN
and CETIS
• See <http://blog.observatory.jisc.ac.uk/>
But:
• Work closed due to cessation of JISC core funding
• Methodology being shared across community
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JISC Observatory
#saoim
JISC Observatory processes
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Accompanying Paper
#saoim
JISC Observatory work
described in paper
presented at EMTACL
(Emerging Technologies
in Academic Libraries)
2012 conference
See bit.ly/emtacl12kelly
Sharing approaches with
Norwegian librarians
Feel free to view papers, share with colleagues
& provide feedback using #saoim
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Accompanying Paper
#saoim
Follow-up paper
presented at CILIP’s
Umbrella 2013
conference
See bit.ly/umbrella-13kelly
Sharing approaches with
UK librarians
Feel free to view papers, share with colleagues
& provide feedback using #saoim
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Top Tips for Predicting the Future
#saoim
Tip no. 3
Information professionals should carry out
evidence-gathering, sense-making and synthesis
activities for their own organisation / sector.
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Invention, Innovation, Improvement
#saoim
1. Invention:
The creation of the idea or
method itself.
2. Innovation:
The use of a better and, as a
result, novel idea or method.
3. Improvement: Doing current activities better.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Innovation
Which one is your main area of interest to
support your professional activities?
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Top Tips for Predicting the Future
#saoim
Tip no. 4
You will need to monitor
(a) innovations to support long-term planning and
(b) improvements in order to enhance
operational practices
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Data
#saoim
“Manchester City to
open the archive on
player data and
statistics”
Example of:
• How data can
inform practices and
decisions
• Public interest in
open data
• Interest from
commercial sector
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Significant Trends: Social Media
#saoim
Survey in Aug 2012 of institutional use of Facebook across the 24 Russell
Group universities found >1M ‘Likes’ followers
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Significant Trends: Social Media
#saoim
Survey in Aug 2012 of institutional use of Facebook across the 24 Russell
Group universities found >1M ‘Likes’ followers
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Behind The Data
#saoim
Trends in Fb ‘Likes’ for Russell group Unis since Jan 2011
show steady increase
But note increase in Jul 2012 due to
addition of 4 new universities!
Jan 11
Sep 11
May 12
Jul 12
But might trends hide a more
complex story:
• Usage & growth dominated by
one significant player.
• More modest usage generally
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Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics!
“#Blekko traffic goes through the roof –
for good reason. Try it out!”
Based on blog post entitled “Blekko’s
Traffic Is Up Almost 400 Percent; Here
Are The CEO’s Five Reasons Why”
(includes dissatisfaction with Google)
LIES, DAMNED LIES AND GRAPHS
Is Blekko’s Traffic Really Going Through The Roof? Will It Challenge Google?,
UK Web Focus blog, 18 April 2012
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Top Tips for Predicting the Future
#saoim
Tip no. 5
Data can provide insights and indicate trends –
but needs to be interpretted carefully
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JISC Observatory
#saoim
JISC Observatory processes
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Open Sense-making
#saoim
“All bugs are visible
to many eyes”
Seek feedback on:
• Evidence-gathering
methodology e.g.
flaws in ‘paradata’
• Implications of
findings
• Interventions
needed in light of
findings
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Open Sense-making
#saoim
Importance of open approaches to
interpretation of signals:
• Evidence-gathering methodologies may have flaws
• Incorrect or inappropriate implications may be made
• This may lead to wrong decisions being made
Open sense-making approaches may be difficult – your marketing
department may wish a consistent, positive message to be made.
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Top Tips for Predicting the Future
#saoim
Tip no. 6
Once you’ve gathered evidence you should
encourage open feedback on:
• Validity of evidence-gathering methodologies
• Interpretation of findings
• Implications
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Envisaging Alternative Futures
#saoim
There is a need to be willing to:
• Envisage implications of technological
developments
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Shush!
We may appropriate technological
developments to support their
activities - but simply emulate
existing ways of working!
Acknowledgements to Patrick
Hochstenbach (@hochstenbach)
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Question for the Audience
#saoim
Hands up if you have:
• Used a mobile device for work-related purposes
in bed (yes, no, rarely)
“20% of the iPad users spent time with their iPad in bed”
2010
Informal survey,
March 2012
“The future is already here it's just not very evenly
distributed”
What are the implications
of this new ‘platform’?
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Becoming Receptive to Future-Thinking
#saoim
How do we become more receptive to new
future scenarios?
• What did you notice for the first time recently?
What will you foresee for the future?
• Typically optimistic or pessimistic views,
reflecting personal traits.
• Possibly no new insights
Now stretch your mind consider:
• The History of the Web Backwards
• Forecasting Trends Backwards
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Reversing the Future!
#saoim
Romancing Your Soul Absolutely Brilliant!
(1 min 44 secs)
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Reversing the Future!
#saoim
The Future of Publishing (2
mins 24 secs)
Various innovative
story-telling
techniques listed in a
blog post by Tony
Hirst (ouseful.info)
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Top Tips for Predicting the Future
#saoim
Tip no. 7
Make use of techniques which may help you to be
receptive to alternative future scenarios
…
and consider use of such approaches when you
tell stories about the future to your users
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Prioritising Work
#saoim
The Delphic Methodology
Group exercise
Identify 4 key technologies which you feel will be
important :
• During the current year
• In 2-3 years’ time
• In 4-5 years’ time
Workshop
notes
Vote on other groups’ proposals
You’ve identified areas you feel will be important
The Delphi methodology is used by NMC and in the JISC Observatory
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Top Tips for Predicting the Future
#saoim
Tip no. 8
Explore the potential of using the Delphi
methodology to help identification of future
developments of importance to your organisation
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Scenario Planning
#saoim
You’ve speculated on alternative futures.
You can use them in scenario planning
exercises
Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario
analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations
use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an
adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military
intelligence.
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Future Scenarios for Social Networks
#saoim
FaceAmazoogle own your
content & digital identities
Continued growth
in existing services
Steady as
she goes
Dystopian
futures
Possible scenarios
for social networks
Small is
beautiful
Distributed open source
services; individuals
own content
Who
cares?
User backlash against social
networks & stop using them
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Future Scenarios for Social Networks
#saoim
How do we detect evidence
of this scenario?
The default
scenario
Steady as
she goes
Dystopian
futures
Possible scenarios
for social networks
Small is
beautiful
How do we detect
evidence of this scenario?
Who
cares?
How do we detect evidence
of this scenario?
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Implications for Future of Libraries
#saoim
We all curate large amount of
digital content. Who needs
professional librarians?
Everyone’s
a librarian
We know we’re right / our
boss is convinced he’s right!
Fake
certainties
Possible scenarios for
the future of libraries
Middle
classes or
deprived?
Is focus on support for online
users or those who don’t /
can’t use IT?
Privatised
future
We are encouraging users to
use commercial services
See http://hyperlinkedlibrarymoocbriankelly.wordpress.com/category/library-of-the-future/
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Top Tips for Predicting the Future
#saoim
Tip no. 9
Scenario planning, covering both technological
and societal developments, can be useful in
planning for future developments
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NMC Horizon Reports
#saoim
NMC Horizon Reports: http://www.nmc.org/
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NMC Horizon Report: HE Edition 2013
#saoim
NMC Horizon report: Higher
Education, 2013
PDF
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NMC Horizon Report: Library Edition 2014
#saoim
NMC Horizon Report: Library Edition
2014
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ETAG (Education Technology Action Group)
#saoim
http://feltag.org.uk/etag/
ETAG:
• Exploring shortand long-term
actions for UK
Government,
educational
institutions
• Contributions
welcomed
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ETAG (Education Technology Action Group)
#saoim
http://feltag.org.uk/etag/contribute-to-etag/clster-1/
ETAG:
• Exploring shortand long-term
actions for UK
Government,
educational
institutions
• Contributions
welcomed
• Comments by
Twitter hashtags
& email
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ETAG (Education Technology Action Group)
#saoim
http://feltag.org.uk/etag/contribute-to-etag/clster-1/
ETAG:
• Exploring shortand long-term
actions for UK
Government,
educational
institutions
• Contributions
welcomed
• Comments by
Twitter hashtags
& email
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Top Tips for Predicting the Future
#saoim
Tip no. 10
Read the NMC and related reports (but
discuss their relevance in your own context)
…
and consider implications of Twitter as a tool
for making input into policy discussions
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Warning From The Past
#saoim
Tim Berners-Lee didn’t
let evidence of the
popularity of Gopher
hinder development of
the Web
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Tip no. 11
#saoim
The Serenity Prayer
The Serenity Prayer
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Conclusions
#saoim
1. Beware of predictions which reflect personal
/ sectoral beliefs
2. You can’t always trust futurologists!
3. Carry out your own future planning work
4. Monitor innovations and improvements
5. Data can provide insights & indicate trends
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Conclusions
#saoim
6.
Solicit feedback on your evidence and
interpretations
7.
Be receptive to innovation & use innovative
approaches in story-telling
8.
Explore use of the Delphi methodology
9.
Make use of scenario planning
10. Read the NMC reports
11. Remember the Serenity prayer
Thoughts on the future (if time)
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What Does the Future Hold? (1)
#saoim
Personal thoughts and observations for librarians
PDF
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NMC Higher Education Horizon Report 2014
#saoim
Important Developments in Educational
Technology for Higher Education Time-to-Adoption
Horizon: One Year or Less
>Flipped Classroom
>Learning Analytics
(Pre-)Amplified events for
professional development
Evidence: collated by NMC
Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Two
to Three Years
Implications: better trained
>3D Printing
>Games and Gamification
Time-to-Adoption Horizon:
>Quantified Self
>Virtual Assistants
staff, who are aware on
implications for teaching &
learning & research
How: managers to provide
Four
to Five Years
support; staff to use
technologies
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What Does the Future Hold? (2)
#saoim
Personal thoughts and observations for librarians
Research data –
providing new
opportunities
Evidence: Personal observations of growth in vacancies in libraries
Implications: Exploit metadata expertise in new areas. Gain expertise visualisation;
statistics; …
How: Monitor developments. Take part in MOOCs, …
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What Does the Future Hold? (2)
#saoim
Personal thoughts and observations for librarians
Research data –
providing new
opportunities
Evidence: Personal observations of growth in vacancies in libraries
Implications: Exploit metadata expertise in new areas. Gain expertise visualisation;
statistics; …
How: Monitor developments. Take part in MOOCs, …
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What Does the Future Hold? (3)
#saoim
The future of libraries:
• Great opportunities provided by growth in the
online environment
• Uncertain due to:
 The competition provided by other players
 The failure of the library community to be willing to
take risks and do thinks differently
“We suffer from limited horizons and are obsessed with obsolete
practices and standards of perfection” Lawraine Wood,
Proceedings of the Library Association Industrial Group, 1988!
Evidence: For you to find!
Implications: For you to decide
How: Being pro-active; being open; being honest!
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#saoim
That’s all folks!
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