2030 Transit-Oriented Development Scenario: Travel Model Results Presentation to the TPB Citizen Advisory Committee April 14, 2005 Regional Mobility and Accessibility Study Don McAuslan for Mark.
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2030 Transit-Oriented Development Scenario: Travel Model Results Presentation to the TPB Citizen Advisory Committee April 14, 2005 Regional Mobility and Accessibility Study Don McAuslan for Mark Moran Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments TodScenTravMod2005-04-14.ppt TOD Scenario: What is it? • Land use: TOD land use – Places more of the region’s future household and job growth around current and planned Metrorail stations, commuter rail stations or other transit centers – Derived from Round 6.4 land activity forecasts • Transportation network: TOD network 4/14/05 Presentation to the TPB CAC 2 TOD land use: Households • Assumes a shift of 125,000 households (35% of the forecast 2010 to 2030 growth, but only 5.2% of the total 2030 HHs) 4/14/05 Presentation to the TPB CAC 3 TOD land use: Jobs • Assumes a shift of 150,000 jobs (19% of the forecast 2010 to 2030 growth, but only 3.6% of the total 2030 employment) 4/14/05 Presentation to the TPB CAC 4 Transportation network: Fixed guideway improvements • • • • Heavy rail (Metrorail, commuter rail) Light rail (LRT) Bus rapid transit (BRT) Transitway (indicates BRT or LRT) 4/14/05 Presentation to the TPB CAC 5 Transportation network: 2005 3-2-2005 FT A DR Metro Lines Commuter Rail Major Roads 7 4/14/05 0 Presentation to the TPB CAC 7 14 Miles 6 Transportation network: 2030 CLRP 3-2-2005 T F A R D Corridor Cities Transitwy Bi-County Transitway Dulles Rail K St. Busway DC Light Rail BUS Way / Lanes and Light rail Metrorail extension to Dulles VA Rt. 1 Bus Lanes Metro Lines Commuter Rail Major Roads 7 4/14/05 0 Presentation to the TPB CAC 7 14 Miles 7 Transportation network: 2030 CLRP+ • CLRP+ assumes no capital improvements, only enhancements to transit service • Most significant service enhancement: the lifting of the 2005 transit constraint through the DC core • CLRP+ is the baseline network 4/14/05 3-2-2005 FT A DR Light Rail Metro Lines Commuter Rail Major Roads Presentation to the TPB CAC 7 0 7 14 Miles 8 Transportation network: TOD, Map 1 of 2 LRT270 T F A R D 3-2-2005 CCT BUSWAY97 2030 TO D Trans it W ay Improvem ents Light Ra il M etro Lines LRTMD1 Com muter R ail M ajor R oads LRT193 MORNA LRT4 LRT50 VMASS LRT5301 LRTVA1S VFAUQMASS LRT210 4/14/05 Presentation to the TPB CAC 9 Transit Improvements in the 2030 Transit-Oriented Development Network Compared to the 2030 CLRP+ Network Metrorail, Commuter Rail, Light Rail, Bus Rapid Transit Map 2 of 2 Transportation network: TOD, Map 2 of 2 LR TM D1 3-2-2005 LR TB IC LR TB IC FT A DR LR TB IC LR TC 1 LR T6 B LR TC 5 LR TC 3 LR TC 3 LR T2 01 LR TC 3 LR T6 B LR T6 A/B LR TC 4A LR T6 A/B LR TC 2 LR TC 4A /6A LR TC 7 LR T6 A/B LR TC 1 LR T6 A/B LR TC 2 LR TC P1 LR TC 2 LR TC 3 LR TVA 1N N LR TC 1/C 7 M GR NA 20 3 0 TO D Trans it W ay Impro vem en ts Lig h t Ra il M etro Lin es M GR NA LR TC 1/C 7 Co m mu ter R ail M ajo r R oads 4/14/05 Presentation to the TPB CAC 10 Map legend: Fixed guideway extensions in TOD network PROJECT_ID BUSWAY97 LRT193 LRT201 LRT210 LRT270 LRT4 LRT50 LRT5301 LRT6A/B LRT6B LRTBIC LRTC1 LRTC1/C7 LRTC2 LRTC3 LRTC4A LRTC4A/6A LRTC5 LRTC7 LRTCP1 LRTMD1 LRTVA1N LRTVA1S MGRNA MORNA VFAUQMASS VMASS 4/14/05 DESCRIPTION MD 97 Transitway MD 193 Greenbelt Rd Transitway MD 201 (Kenilworth Ave.) Transitway MD 210 (Indian Head Hwy) Transitway I-270 Transitway MD 4 (Pennsylvania Ave.) Transitway US 50 John Hanson Hwy Transitway MD 5/301 LRT DC LRT Corridor 6A/B DC LRT Corridor 6B BiCounty Transitway DC LRT Corridor 1 DC LRT Corridor 1/7 DC LRT Corridor 2 DC LRT Corridor 3 DC LRT Corridor 4A DC LRT Corridor 4A/6A DC LRT Corridor 5 DC LRT Corridor 7 Columbia Pike Transitway MD 1 (Baltimore Ave.) Transitway VA 1 Transitway, North VA 1 Transitway, South Green Line Metrorail Extension WW Bridge Orange Line Metrorail Extension W FFX VRE Extension to Fauquier Co. VRE Extension to Haymarket Presentation to the TPB CAC 11 2030 CLRP+ vs TOD: Fixed guideway miles 4/14/05 Fixed Guideway Miles Metrorail, Commuter rail, Transitway (BRT, LRT) 800 691 700 600 500 Miles • Fixed guideway miles have increased from 412 to 691 miles (67%), but most of the increase is in the transitway category, which includes BRT/LRT lines that may operate in mixed traffic, separate right-of-way, or a combination of the two. • Metrorail miles increase by 23% and commuter rail miles by 12%. 412 400 293 263 300 237 160 200 130 100 19 0 2030 CLRP Plus Metrorail Commuter Rail 2030 Transit Oriented Devel. Transitw ay (LRT/BRT) Total Source: rail_link_miles2.xls, staprotp.rpt Presentation to the TPB CAC 12 Transit Stations: How many and where? Transit Stations CLRP+ TOD Change Total Number of Stations 166 431 265 Number of Transit Stations Within a Regional Activity Cluster 109 265 156 Number of Transit Stations Outside a Regional Activity Cluster 57 166 109 CLRP+ TOD Change Total Number of Regional Activity Clusters 24 24 --- Number of Regional Activity Clusters With One or More Transit Stations 17 22 5 Number of Regional Activity Clusters Without a Transit Station 7 2 -5 Regional Activity Clusters 4/14/05 Presentation to the TPB CAC 13 TOD model results • Compared to the 2030 CLRP+, the 2030 TOD scenario results in 109,000 more transit trips per day (7.9% increase) – 58,000 due to TOD network – 51,000 due to TOD land use • Regional transit mode share goes from 5.7% to 6.3% (a small increase, but the largest increase of all the scenarios tested to date) • Home-based work mode share goes from 20.5% to 22.1% (again, the highest of any of the scenarios tested to date) 4/14/05 Presentation to the TPB CAC 14 TOD model results, 2 • VMT drops by about 1% (from 149.8 million to 148.3 million vehicle miles of travel) • HBW walk and bike trips increased 6.4%, from 253,000 to 270,000 • Carpool commuters: There is a drop of 13,000 daily trips (2.0%) • AM congestion: the number of AM lane miles with a volume-to-capacity ratio > 1.0 drops by 4.6% (from 2,560 to 2,440 miles) 4/14/05 Presentation to the TPB CAC 15 Households Within ½-Mile of a Transit Station: 2030 CLRP+, Transit Oriented Development, Higher Household Growth TOD CLRP+ Higher Household Growth 16% 28% 27% Inside 1/2-Mile Outside 1/2-Mile 73% 72% 84% Total Households, CLRP+ and TOD: 2.4 Million Total Households, Higher Household Scenario: 2.6 Million 4/14/05 Presentation to the TPB CAC 16 Employment Within ½-Mile of a Transit Station: 2030 CLRP+, Transit Oriented Development, & Higher Household Growth Higher Household Growth TOD CLRP+ 36% 45% 46% 54% 55% Inside 1/2-Mile Outside 1/2-Mile 64% Total Employment in 2030: 4.2 Million 4/14/05 Presentation to the TPB CAC 17 Acknowledgments • Program Manager: Bob Griffiths • Travel model development and overview: Ron Milone and Jim Hogan • Network development: Bob Snead, John Bethea, Wanda Hamlin, Joe Davis, Bill Bacon • Mapping and technical support: Meseret Seifu, Don McAuslan • Travel modeling: Mark Moran 4/14/05 Presentation to the TPB CAC 18 Thank you Questions?