Developing a Regional Programme for the Improvement of Economic Statistics in Asia and the Pacific

Artur Andrysiak Statistics Development and Analysis Section ESCAP E-mail: [email protected]

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Overview

• Background – Overview of current situation – Decision of the Committee on Statistics • Regional Programme – Approach to the development of the programme – Work completed during 2009 – Aim and target areas of the Programme – Core Set of Economic Statistics • Next Steps

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Background

• The economic statistics have not received a lot of attention in the Asia-Pacific region, the main focus has been on the MDGs • Many developing countries in the region lack the capacity to produce and disseminate basic financial and economic data required for compiling of a minimum set of national accounts and short-term economic indicators • Most developing Asia-Pacific countries have still not been able to fully implement 1993 SNA

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Milestone levels achieved by subregion

Percentage of countries

100 80 60 40 20 0 1 ENEA 2 SEA 3

Milestone level

SSWA NCA 4 Pacific 5 6 ESCAP total

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Status of SNA implementation in Asia and the Pacific

Number of ESCAP countries 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

5 8

SNA68

2 2 2

SNA68/93 Pacific SEA

6 9 8 3 5

SNA93 SSWA

2

SNA2008 NCA

4

No SNA/No info ENEA

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Availability of selected economic statistics

Statistical domains

Merchandise Trade

58

Employment/Unemployment National Accounts

57 56

Consumer Price Index Balance of Payments

49 56

Wages/Earnings Industrial Production Index Producer Price Index

34 37 48

Retail Trade Turnover Volume/Turnover in Services

16 26

0 10 20 30 40

No. of ESCAP Asia-Pacific countries

50

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Availability of censuses and surveys

Population census Economic census Agricultural census

26 33 56 32 25 2

Household Income and Expenditure Survey Labour force Survey Establishment/Enterprise survey 0%

53 43 39

20% 40% Source data used 60% 80% Source data not used/No info

19 15 5

100%

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Availability of Business Registers by subregion and income category

NCA ENEA Pacific SEA SSWA

3 12 6 5 8 7 5 9 2 1

High-income Middle-income Low-income 0%

8 19 13

20%

7 7

40% 60% BR available BR not available/No info 80%

4

100%

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Committee on Statistic, 2009

• At 1 st session, in February 2009 • Adopted a coordinating governance structure to guide the development, implementation and monitoring of an action plan (Regional Programme) for the development of economic statistics in the Asian and Pacific region • Established a technical advisory group to provide guidance to the Bureau and the ESCAP secretariat on the development and periodic revision of a regional programme for the development of economic statistics

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Approach to development of Programme

• Agree on a core set of economic statistics that each country in the region should be able to produce • Assess countries’ capacity to produce economic statistics, and determine what main impediments to produce core set are – Initial assessment done; need for continuous (e.g. annual) monitoring • Identify what countries & agencie s are doing / planning to do to overcome capacity constraints – Need for ongoing information sharing / collection

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Programme development approach (cont.)

• Identify, for each country, what the remaining gaps in capacity are • Determine, for and with each country, what national priorities to fill the gaps are • Develop national work plans to address the priorities by: – Integrating capacity building requirements for economic statistics in National Strategies for the Development of Statistics – Mobilizing (advocating for the mobilization) of national and internationally resources (funding) • Implementing / monitoring the work plans

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Work completed during 2009

• Establishment and meetings of Technical Advisory Group (TAG): – Experts from AFG, AUS, IND, KAZ, MNG, NZL, ADB, ASEAN Secr., ECO Secr., Eurostat, FAO, IMF, SPC – Met in Sep and Dec 2009 + intensive email & phone communication – Proposed Core Set of Economic Statistics • Assessment of NSS’s capacity to produce economic statistics – Development of framework – Desk research – Country validation / gap filling

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Work completed during 2009(cont.)

Expert Group Meeting (17-18 September 2009) – To discuss need for Regional Programme, how to go about developing it, and issues to be covered Workshop to Develop a Regional Programme (9 11 December 2009 ) – to discuss and formulate recommendations on the proposed Regional Programme: • a minimum core set of economic statistics that each country in the region should be able to produce • the key elements, deliverables and timelines of the Regional Programme • the implementation and periodic review of the Regional Programme.

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Focus of the Programme

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Aim of the Regional Programme

• The primary aim of the programme is to

develop the capacity

of ESCAP Members and Associate Members to produce a

core set of economic statistics

by 2020 of appropriate quality required for short and long term economic analyses and decision making by both government and non government agencies / organisations.

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Target areas

develop selected core human skills required to collect, compile, analyse and disseminate economic statistics of appropriate and known quality improve the capacity of countries to develop, implement and maintain key statistical infrastructures - quality assessment framework; metadata repositories; business register; area frame for household surveys improve methodological transparency through national compilation and dissemination of appropriate methodological information (metadata) enhance the long-term sustainability of the national statistical system through improvements in statistical advocacy within the country

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Delivery of the Programme

The delivery of most aspects of the programme will be via the work programmes of NSOs as well as global, regional and sub-regional bodies funding and providing technical assistance and other initiatives across the region All players active in the region will need to sign on to the programme, be willing to share information on their activities, and if necessary modify the nature of the training or technical assistance and/or the timing of what they planned to deliver ESCAP Committee on Statistics will provide a key forum for discussion and decisions on Regional Programme

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Relationship of the Core Set to the Regional Programme

• Purpose of the programme is to develop the capacity to produce a range of economic statistics, ie remove the constraints preventing their production.

• The core set fulfils two roles: – Determines the scope of the programme.

– Provides guidance on the minimum set of economic statistics to be produced.

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Core Set of Economic Statistics

• • • A minimum set of

statistics

needed to monitor the economy and material wellbeing.

• Includes both primary and derived statistics.

• Flexibility in the type of statistic and its characteristics (other than frequency) within some statistical categories.

• Applies to all member countries

in principle

of the economy of the member country – .

• In practice, some statistics may not be relevant given the nature

but

that country will have the capability to produce the core set.

Not

a set of

surveys

...but source data needs and best practice imply the need for certain types of surveys.

Not

a list of source data needed to compile SNA……

but

..

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Core Set of Economic Statistics

• …..the statistics are compiled within the SNA and related frameworks.

• …..the statistics are key … so it can be expected that they will also provide most of the source data needed to compile the national accounts.

• …the Regional Programme delivers capability. The outcome should be country capability to produce national accounts including obtaining source data that may not be explicitly listed in the core set.

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Domains of economic statistics included in the core set

– – – – – – –

Prices and costs Demand and output Income and wealth Money and banking Government Labour market Natural assets and the environment

–

Within each of the above domains, the Core Set consists of key statistics, each of which is described by its frequency and relevant international standard and/or guideline

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Core Set of Economic Statistics

Infrastructure: (frameworks, standards, classifications, registers )

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Input data Processing Output statistics © 2008 by ESCAP

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Next steps

• The Core Set and the Regional Programme will be finalized during the 1 st half of 2010 • The finalized versions of the Regional Programme and the core set will be submitted for the consideration and endorsement of the Committee on Statistics during its second session, scheduled to take place in December 2010 • Given the need for strengthening national statistical systems (NSSs) in Asia and the Pacific through actively advocating for increased commitment from policymakers, particularly in government, both of these documents will be subsequently submitted to the ESCAP Commission.

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Implementation of 2008 SNA and ISIC Rev.4 – ESCAP Region Country

Armenia Australia Bhutan Fiji Hong Kong, China India Y Y Y

Plans for implementat ion of 2008 SNA

Y Y

If yes, when do you plan to implement SNA2008

2011-2012 2009

Plans for implementat ion of ISIC Rev4

Y Y Y 2009, GDP released. Working on all other national accounts tables eg up to lending, integrated accounts etc around 2012 2015 Y Y Y

If yes, when do you plan to implement ISIC Rev4

2010 2009 5years time 2011 2015 24 Indonesia Iran (Islamic Republic of) Japan Republic of Korea Y N Y Y 2014 2015 2014 Y N 2011

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Implementation of 2008 SNA and ISIC Rev.4 – ESCAP Region Country

Macao, China Malaysia Maldives

Plans for implementat ion of 2008 SNA

Y Y Y

If yes, when do you plan to implement SNA2008

2010 2014

Plans for implementat ion of ISIC Rev4

Y Y

If yes, when do you plan to implement ISIC Rev4

2011 2014 Mongolia New Zealand Samoa Y N Y 25 Singapore Thailand Tonga Viet Nam Y N Y Y 2015 2010 Y Y Y SNA2008 will be implemented progressively.

2011 Y Y N Y 2010 2011 2009/10 Implemented ISIC Rev4 (draft) in 2007. Implementing ISIC Rev 4 in 2011-12.

201X 2007

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References and useful links

• Committee on Statistics, First session http://www.unescap.org/stat/cst/1/index.asp

Towards an action plan for the development of economic statistics in the • Asian and Pacific region http://www.unescap.org/stat/cst/1/CST1-5E.pdf

Availability and quality of short-term economic statistics in the Asian and • the Pacific Region http://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/workshops/2009/netherland s/AC202-S55.PDF

Expert Group Meeting on the Development of Economic Statistics in the • Asian and Pacific Region (17-18 September 2009, Bangkok) http://www.unescap.org/stat/meet/egm2009/index.asp

Workshop to Develop a Regional Programme for the Improvement of Economic Statistics in Asia and the Pacific (9-11 December 2009, • Bangkok) http://www.unescap.org/stat/meet/econ-dec09/index.asp

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Regional advisory services

The Statistics Division of ESCAP offers regional advisory services on statistics Regional Adviser on Statistics [email protected]

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Questions?

Thank you

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