Transcript Slide 1

Side Event
New York, 25 June 2009
Dr. Noeleen Heyzer
Executive Secretary
Economic and Social Commission for
Asia and the Pacific
1
Declining growth but ESCAP as locus of
global growth in 2009
10
8
Developing ESCAP economies
6
Per cent
Baseline
4
Downside
2
Developed economies
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-2
-4
2
ESCAP as most trade- dependent region
of the world is hit hard by crisis
Total trade as a percentage of GDP (constant 2000 prices)
81%
ESCAP
31%
79%
ESCWA
47%
53%
ECA
42%
41%
ECLAC
0%
15%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Average 1992-1995 or nearest year
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Average 2005-2008 or latest year available
3
Export- oriented ESCAP economies
experiencing double-digit export
declines
Export performance of selected ESCAP economies
30.0
Oct-08
20.0
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
-30.0
nd
la
Th
ai
or
e
ga
p
fK
.o
R
ep
Si
n
or
ea
a
si
al
ay
M
pa
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Ja
a
In
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hi
K
on
g
-20.0
C
hi
-10.0
na
0.0
H
on
g
Per cent
10.0
-40.0
-50.0
4
Asia-Pacific is more economically
integrated with rest of world than with itself
• Intraregional trade among developing countries
accounts for only 37% of exports in our region in
comparison with NAFTA at 51% and the E.U at
68%.
• Countries with a large share of exports will be in
a weaker position to absorb the shocks of
declining trade
5
Rising protectionism
• During economic crises,
governments may resort
to protectionism as a
palatable way of dealing
with short-term pressures
• However, this only
exacerbates the downturn
and makes it more
difficult to achieve strong
growth even during the
subsequent recovery
6
Rising unemployment
• Up to 24.8 million people
could loose their jobs to the
economic crisis, driving
many into poverty
• Only 30% of our elderly
receive pensions
• Only 20% of the region’s
population has access to
health-care coverage.
• Access to basic social
services like education is
poor
7
Resilience: larger shares of domestic demand for
some economies, with larger economies having
a distinct advantage
• Domestic demand will need to play a supportive role in the
face of declining growth
Domestic demand as % of total exports
600
2007
2008
400
300
200
100
po
re
in
ga
S
C
hi
on
g,
on
g
H
Ta
i
w
an
K
in
c
P
ro
v
ep
u
R
na
a
si
al
ay
hi
C
e
of
M
na
nd
ila
Th
a
or
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bl
ic
of
K
ne
s
hi
lip
pi
C
hi
n
a
P
In
d
on
e
si
a
ia
0
In
d
Per cent
500
8
More fiscal space in some countries than in others
M
ald
ive
s
Pa
ki
sta
n
La
nk
a
Sr
i
In
di
a
M
ala
Ira
ys
ia
n
(Is
.R
ep
.o
f)
ina
Ch
ap
or
e
Si
ng
re
a
Ko
Re
p.
of
Fe
d.
ss
ian
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
Ru
Per cent
Fiscal balance by top surplus and top deficit economies, 2008
(as % of GDP)
9
Fiscal policy: Key policy tool to recovery
and realignment of development path
Size of selected stimulus packages
(as % of GDP)
14
12
Per cent
10
8
6
4
2
0
China
Singapore United
States
Republic Australia
of Korea
Japan
Indonesia Thailand Russian Malaysia
India
Federation
10
Towards a more inclusive and sustainable
growth path
Fiscal policies should be designed to
• Strengthen social protection systems
• Address gender dimension of economic
crisis
• Promote environmentally sustainable
growth
11
From crisis resilience to crisis resistance:
regional solidarity
• Combined fiscal spending in developing ESCAP
economies amounts to $870 billion
• Represents five times the aggregate GDP ESCAP
LDCs
• LDCs important partners in regional development:
- growing consumer base,
- strategic geographic location as landlinking
countries,
- critical links in vertically integrated
production chains
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From crisis resilience to crisis resistance:
regional solidarity
• Regional coordination mechanism for
macroeconomic policy so that regional and global
multiplier effects are enhanced
• Exchange rate coordination: strengthen foundation
for cooperative rather than competitive relations
among Asia-Pacific countries
• CMI of reserves pooling: broaden membership (and
size of pool) and expand functions so that it can
evolve into a truly Asia-Pacific defence mechanism
• Regional trade finance mechanism as self-help
measure to support intraregional and global exports
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also important
Thank you
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