Transcript Bálint Murai, HCSO National Accounts department Production Accounts section [email protected] UNECE Group of Experts on National Accounts 6 - 9 May 2014. Geneva.

Bálint Murai, HCSO
National Accounts department
Production Accounts section
[email protected]
UNECE
Group of Experts on National Accounts
6 - 9 May 2014.
Geneva
Mexico
Instituto Nacional de
Estadística y Geografía
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The aim
 estimate the performance of Informal economy
and include in NA
 give a proposal for a satellite account of Informal
economy
Share of persons in informal employment in total
non-agricultural employment in Mexico (%)
Male
Female
Total
58.7
57.8
54.3
54
53.7
52.7
51.7
50.8
2007
50.7
2009
2011
Reference: Key Indicator of the Labour
Market Database
(KILM)
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The aim
estimate the performance of Informal economy and
include in NA
give a proposal for a satellite account of Informal
economy
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ILO conceptual framework, SNA2008
Labour input are calculated separately:
informal sector and
informal employment outside the informal sector.
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Informal Economy, 2008: 25,5% of the GDP
(8,7% Informal sector+16,8% Informal
employment outside the informal sector)
The method applied here, however is not totally
clear.
Method?
„Method of
latent
Variable”
ENOE
Hussmanns’ MATRIX
ENAMIN
GVA / Labour Input
Formal Informal
Employment
Sector
Formal
Informal
Calculation steps for the computation of data from
ENOE and ENAMIN is not included. (Overview
picture)
GVA calculation scheme from ENAMIN is not totally
clear (e.g. the use of IC/GVA ratios)
Use of the Latent Variable method?
ENOE: asking the employees about the registration or
status (formal/informal) of their employer.
Reliable data for the employers?
Different productivity in the formal and informal sector.
Any correction while calculating the informal GVA
from formal sector data?
Borderline between underground and informal
On the informal activity there may be some underground
activity (e.g. full time emloyment registered half-time,
minimum wage, rest of the money is envelop payment.)
In our experience enterprises tend to record the same data
in the administrative records and in the survey. Even if we
knew the informal employment the survey data could not
be taken directly for calculating the informal production.
Any correction for the Underground activity?
Canada
Statistics Canada
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Summary of an exhaustive study, lot of
information
Long tradition of estimating UE (Almost 3
decades of experience)
Upper bound estimation
Volume measure
All of the 3 GDP Approaches, Expenditure side is
dominant
Informal sector
Boundaries between informal and underground activity.
Small businesses with revenues less than $30.000 do not
have to charge VAT type taxes and are excluded form BR.
Any studies for examining those who are above this
limit, but not registered?
Upper bound method
Maximum potential amount (Throughout the study, except
for alcohol, tobacco, tips and rents)
What’s the idea behind using the upper bound
method?
Why don’t you include them in the official GDP?
Skimming
Skimming occurs when legitimate businesses fail to declare part
of their business income. The type of tax evasion can be different
by size and type of enterprises even if we rule out the largest
companies.
Threshold for potential tax evaders. (Annual revenues
less than 2 million)
 How did you arrive to chose this threshold?
 Is this sub-set of enterprises supposed to be homogenous, or do
you investigate them further by the main important indicators
of production? (e.g. number of employees; type of activity?)
Skimming rate
• How is it validated that the skimming rate is twice as much for
the unincorporated enterprise than for the incorporated?
Allocation of skimming estimates
Final step in the Reassessment estimation of skimming rates
is unfortunately not very clear.
How do you use the Tax audit data in the
reconciliation process?
Is it used only for adjusting the industrial classification
or it changes the level?
Over-reporting of cost
There are two ways of hiding business income:
 under-report revenue or
 over-report cost
Underreporting of revenues was discussed deeply.
Over-reporting of cost?
Mongolia
National Statistical Office
Of Mongolia
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Considerable effort (several projects) for
estimating NOE and incorporate it into NA
EUROSTAT Tabular Approach framework
Data sources:
 LFS+Household unincorporated enterprises producing for
the market (HUEMs) survey
 Informal sector survey
 Survey on expert opinion of intentional distortion of
business accounting
 Establishment census
 Tax audit data
 Police, Health organisation, neighboring countries data
EUROSTAT Tabular Approach
NOE by industries, but by N1-N7 is not included
Data for
 N4 legal person not surveyed
 N7 other statistical deficiencies?
Information of the GVA compilation for
 Informal sector production (N1, N5)
 HH’s production for own final use (N3)
HUEM
Generally, the results of LFS are not reliable at a lower
aggregation level. (Relative small sample and ignorance of
data providers.)
2007/2008 ~7000 HHs were interviewed, number of HUEMs
~ 2200.
Did you take this problem into consideration when
evaluating HUEM’s data?
Industries
Total
NOE
GDP
Total economy
(NOE+ GDP)
Share of NOE
1 332 093,10
8 414 504,50
9 746 597,60
13,7
8 060,20
1 203 348,00
1 211 408,20
0,7
305 661,80
1 981 970,10
2 287 631,90
13,4
84 089,50
708 931,60
793 021,10
10,6
Electricity, gas, steam and air
conditioning supply
1 454,20
174 302,80
175 757,00
0,8
Water supply; sewerage, waste
management and remediation
activities
2 230,20
33 051,70
35 281,90
6,3
82 511,70
147 178,00
229 689,70
35,9
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of
motor vehicles and motorcycles
528 875,90
1 310 622,10
1 839 498,00
28,8
Transportation and storage
186 841,20
659 297,70
846 138,90
22,1
28 266,10
54 553,40
82 819,50
34,1
104 102,30
2 141 249,10
2 245 351,40
4,6
Agriculture
Mining and quarrying
Manufacturing
Construction
Accommodation and food service
activities
Other services
NOE by industry
There are 2 areas when one would expect a higher portion
of NOE:
Agriculture: 14% of total GVA, NOE: 1% of the total
NOE. Unregistered producers, (e.g. estimation of
cattle?)
Other services: largest share in GDP: 25%, NOE: 8%
Usually direct connection to HH, easiest to avoid tax.
Personal services, tips, gratuities, etc.
Models
30
25
20
15
10
5
Monetary
Consumption of Electricity
Labor input
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Models
The results of the models in the presentation are close in
2010, but the lines are divergent in the earlier periode.
Were there any study to examine the causes of these
differences in macro models?
Characteristics of N1-N7 activities can be different. This
breakdown allows the investigations for more detailled
analysis.
Are there any connection between the NOE
categories and the results of the models?
Netherlands
Statistics
Netherlands
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Long tradition of doing research on the NOE
going back to the 1980s
Very clear paper, logical structure
Production approach; labour input data
Gives an overall view on the calculations
However, the ideas behind the assumptions and
the applied ratios are not always presented.
Presentation framework
NOE problem areas instead of TAE?
Cost fraud
Part of Underground Activity why do you deal it
separatley?
You calculate it for the small enterprises (less than
10 employees). How do you calculate the share of
cost fraud for (the selected items of) IC?
Newspaper articles
Based on our experience, data in the newspapers are not
always reliable and not suitable for generalisation.
How do you validate the data in the papers? (Or do
you use them only for identifying the potential NOE
areas picked up by the press?)
Expert guesses, estimations, opinions
Do you use expert estimations from outside CBS,
(e.g. information from lobby groups, research
institutions, accountants)?
How do you chose the experts and in which form
are you interviewing them?
Potential double counting
For illegal activities: 0,1% of the previously estimated data.
Besides SUT what data sources did you apply?
Are there any other area where you have such
estimations? Which are the typical activities?
PROCESS TABLE
INPUT
Basic for NA
Figures
PROCESS
Adjustments
OUTPUT
Final NA
Estimate
GDP & GNI
Components
Production
Expenditure
Income
GNI
Balancing
NOE
Conceptual
Data Validation
Extrapolations and
Models
Combined Data
Administrative
Records
Surveys and
Censures
PROCESS TABLE
Question for the discussion
Some NOE type of adjustments may be included
somewhere else in the calculation, mainly in the green
cells.
Collect typical borderline cases where it is
particularly difficult to identify the amount of NOE
which had already been calculated earlier
somewhere else in the calculation.
An example is agriculture (cultivated area X average yields)
Bálint Murai, HCSO
National Accounts department
Production Accounts section
[email protected]