UNFCCC Workshop on Climate Change Mitigation Renewables Initiatives in Africa - Selected Case Studies of Mitigation by Stephen Karekezi African Energy Policy Research Network (AFREPREN) [email protected] www.afrepren.org.
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Transcript UNFCCC Workshop on Climate Change Mitigation Renewables Initiatives in Africa - Selected Case Studies of Mitigation by Stephen Karekezi African Energy Policy Research Network (AFREPREN) [email protected] www.afrepren.org.
UNFCCC Workshop on Climate Change
Mitigation
Renewables Initiatives in Africa - Selected
Case Studies of Mitigation
by
Stephen Karekezi
African Energy Policy Research Network
(AFREPREN)
[email protected]
www.afrepren.org
Renewed Interest in Renewables in Africa
Increasing oil prices & pressure on
convertible currency reserves
($40/barrel)
$
Attractive job generation (unemployment/under employment
rates 50-60%), technological development & enterprise
creation potential of renewables
Jobs - Biomass and Conventional Energy Forms
Sector
Person-years per TWh
Nuclear
75
Natural gas
250
Petroleum
260
Offshore oil
265
Coal
370
Wood energy
1,000
Ethanol (from sugarcane)
4,000
Source: Goldemberg, 2003
Renewed Interest in Renewables in Africa
Rio Conference/Climate Change Convention
Johannesburg WSSD Conference
Bonn 2004 Renewables Conference
Decision makers rarely want to be 1st, prefer
to be 2nd or even better, 3rd
Growing importance of renewables in
industrialized countries such as Austria,
Germany (renewable energy industry has over
100,000 employees), Iceland and Denmark
Success stories in selected African countries
(Kenya & Mauritius)
Geothermal - Kenya
Large potential along the great Rift Valley (9,000MW - hot water/steam
option only)
Significant exploitation, largely in Kenya
Large potential for grid-connected electricity generation from
geothermal in Ethiopia, Tanzania and Uganda
Country
Installed
Capacity
(MW)
Estimated
Geothermal
Potential (MW)
Geothermal potential
as % of current
installed capacity
1,156
2,000
173 %
Ethiopia
506
1,000
198 %
Uganda
317
Tanzania
Total for east and
horn of Africa
835
450
No accurate
estimate
142 %
No accurate
estimate
2,907
3,450
119 %
Kenya
Geothermal Energy Use
Country
Potential
Generation in
MW
Exploited
MW
Exploited geothermal
electricity generation as
% of installed capacity
Kenya
2,000
121
10.4
Ethiopia
1,000
2
0.4
Uganda
450
-
-
Source: BCSE, 2003.
Limitations of Geothermal
• Region-specific: Not available in all regions but non-hot
water/steam option available throughout the world
• High up-front drilling costs - equivalent to that of oil wells
but lower risk
• Cost competitive - least cost power development option
for Kenya and cost even lower if heat application included
Benefits of Geothermal
• Security of supply - Close to 100% availability: Not affected
by climatic changes such as drought & strengthens system
balance
• Recent drought in Kenya, Tanzania and Ethiopia led to 8
hour power cuts resulting in close to 1% drop in GDP
• Attractive heat applications potential - Reduces poverty
through rural jobs and enterprise creation
• Technology development - Kenya offering technical
support to neighboring countries & in a few cases
participated in technical missions to industrialized countries
• Equitable negotiation - Geothermal industry composed of
small to medium sized companies which allows developing
Governments to negotiate equitable arrangements
Co-generation: Mauritius
Combined Heat and Power (CHP)
Substantial potential in agro & forest-based industries, e.g.
sugar, paper and pulp, wood and rice industries
Most sugar industries currently practicing co-generation for
own use
Grid-connected co-generation
not widespread in the region
Power Generation - Mauritius
40%
Successful in Mauritius (40% of
power supply of which 25%
bagasse)
Promising developments in
Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania
Sugar Industry
60%
Others
Limitations of Co-generation
• Intermittent biomass feedstock - Can be addressed
through dual-fuel boilers
• Fixing price of co-generated power - Need pro-active
and balanced Government or regulatory intervention to fix
price agreeable to key stakeholders
• Need a robust agro or forest industry: However, cogeneration can improve viability of agro or forest industry
Benefits of Co-generation
Cost-competitive - combined cost of heat & electricity very low
Local resource and strengthens system balance- security of
supply and enhances rural energy service
Reduces in poverty - attractive job generation (at the sugar
cane plantation level) and enterprise creation potential (local
technology development)
Can lead to equitable sharing of benefits: Mauritius case
Incremental and modular - can start small (1 or 2MW
investment to 50-70MW installations) which lowers initial risks
and facilitates local participation
Potential (Low Case): Bagasse-Based Cogeneration
(% of current installed power generation capacity)
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Ethiopia
Kenya
Tanzania
Uganda
0
Self Sustaining Small Scale Renewable Industry:
<1% of Electricity Bill
Units
Assem
Manufs
Bio-fuel improved stoves
7,000 - 10,000
7 – 10
Water pumps
5,000 – 6,000
3–4
Solar water heaters
4,000 – 5,000
5–7
Digestors
300 – 500
5–7
Wind-pumps
150 – 200
3–4
Small hydro units
50 - 100
2-3
Abundant Renewable Energy Resources in Africa
Solar
Wind
5-6 kWh/m2
3-5 m/s (higher in
south & north coastal
areas)
Biomass
Geothermal (hot
water)
Hydro (Small)
Extensive
9000MW
Extensive
Key Challenge
• Articulate a convincing policy case for renewables aimed at
Ministries of Finance, Ministries of Energy & Utilities
Focus on technological and economically proven renewables
with near-term tangible benefits
Energy security vis a vis fluctuating oil prices and drought
related hydro shortages
Enterprise creation
Jobs
Local technological development
• Exploit existing and planned climate-related financing
opportunities