Transcript UNFCCC Workshop on Climate Change Mitigation Renewables Initiatives in Africa - Selected Case Studies of Mitigation by Stephen Karekezi African Energy Policy Research Network (AFREPREN) [email protected] www.afrepren.org.

UNFCCC Workshop on Climate Change
Mitigation
Renewables Initiatives in Africa - Selected
Case Studies of Mitigation
by
Stephen Karekezi
African Energy Policy Research Network
(AFREPREN)
[email protected]
www.afrepren.org
Renewed Interest in Renewables in Africa
 Increasing oil prices & pressure on
convertible currency reserves
($40/barrel)
$
 Attractive job generation (unemployment/under employment
rates 50-60%), technological development & enterprise
creation potential of renewables
Jobs - Biomass and Conventional Energy Forms
Sector
Person-years per TWh
Nuclear
75
Natural gas
250
Petroleum
260
Offshore oil
265
Coal
370
Wood energy
1,000
Ethanol (from sugarcane)
4,000
Source: Goldemberg, 2003
Renewed Interest in Renewables in Africa
Rio Conference/Climate Change Convention
Johannesburg WSSD Conference
Bonn 2004 Renewables Conference
Decision makers rarely want to be 1st, prefer
to be 2nd or even better, 3rd
Growing importance of renewables in
industrialized countries such as Austria,
Germany (renewable energy industry has over
100,000 employees), Iceland and Denmark
Success stories in selected African countries
(Kenya & Mauritius)
Geothermal - Kenya
 Large potential along the great Rift Valley (9,000MW - hot water/steam
option only)
 Significant exploitation, largely in Kenya
 Large potential for grid-connected electricity generation from
geothermal in Ethiopia, Tanzania and Uganda
Country
Installed
Capacity
(MW)
Estimated
Geothermal
Potential (MW)
Geothermal potential
as % of current
installed capacity
1,156
2,000
173 %
Ethiopia
506
1,000
198 %
Uganda
317
Tanzania
Total for east and
horn of Africa
835
450
No accurate
estimate
142 %
No accurate
estimate
2,907
3,450
119 %
Kenya
Geothermal Energy Use
Country
Potential
Generation in
MW
Exploited
MW
Exploited geothermal
electricity generation as
% of installed capacity
Kenya
2,000
121
10.4
Ethiopia
1,000
2
0.4
Uganda
450
-
-
Source: BCSE, 2003.
Limitations of Geothermal
• Region-specific: Not available in all regions but non-hot
water/steam option available throughout the world
• High up-front drilling costs - equivalent to that of oil wells
but lower risk
• Cost competitive - least cost power development option
for Kenya and cost even lower if heat application included
Benefits of Geothermal
• Security of supply - Close to 100% availability: Not affected
by climatic changes such as drought & strengthens system
balance
• Recent drought in Kenya, Tanzania and Ethiopia led to 8
hour power cuts resulting in close to 1% drop in GDP
• Attractive heat applications potential - Reduces poverty
through rural jobs and enterprise creation
• Technology development - Kenya offering technical
support to neighboring countries & in a few cases
participated in technical missions to industrialized countries
• Equitable negotiation - Geothermal industry composed of
small to medium sized companies which allows developing
Governments to negotiate equitable arrangements
Co-generation: Mauritius
Combined Heat and Power (CHP)
Substantial potential in agro & forest-based industries, e.g.
sugar, paper and pulp, wood and rice industries
Most sugar industries currently practicing co-generation for
own use
Grid-connected co-generation
not widespread in the region
Power Generation - Mauritius
40%
Successful in Mauritius (40% of
power supply of which 25%
bagasse)
Promising developments in
Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania
Sugar Industry
60%
Others
Limitations of Co-generation
• Intermittent biomass feedstock - Can be addressed
through dual-fuel boilers
• Fixing price of co-generated power - Need pro-active
and balanced Government or regulatory intervention to fix
price agreeable to key stakeholders
• Need a robust agro or forest industry: However, cogeneration can improve viability of agro or forest industry
Benefits of Co-generation
Cost-competitive - combined cost of heat & electricity very low
Local resource and strengthens system balance- security of
supply and enhances rural energy service
Reduces in poverty - attractive job generation (at the sugar
cane plantation level) and enterprise creation potential (local
technology development)
Can lead to equitable sharing of benefits: Mauritius case
Incremental and modular - can start small (1 or 2MW
investment to 50-70MW installations) which lowers initial risks
and facilitates local participation
Potential (Low Case): Bagasse-Based Cogeneration
(% of current installed power generation capacity)
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Ethiopia
Kenya
Tanzania
Uganda
0
Self Sustaining Small Scale Renewable Industry:
<1% of Electricity Bill
Units
Assem
Manufs
Bio-fuel improved stoves
7,000 - 10,000
7 – 10
Water pumps
5,000 – 6,000
3–4
Solar water heaters
4,000 – 5,000
5–7
Digestors
300 – 500
5–7
Wind-pumps
150 – 200
3–4
Small hydro units
50 - 100
2-3
Abundant Renewable Energy Resources in Africa
Solar
Wind
5-6 kWh/m2
3-5 m/s (higher in
south & north coastal
areas)
Biomass
Geothermal (hot
water)
Hydro (Small)
Extensive
9000MW
Extensive
Key Challenge
• Articulate a convincing policy case for renewables aimed at
Ministries of Finance, Ministries of Energy & Utilities
 Focus on technological and economically proven renewables
with near-term tangible benefits
 Energy security vis a vis fluctuating oil prices and drought
related hydro shortages
 Enterprise creation
 Jobs
 Local technological development
• Exploit existing and planned climate-related financing
opportunities