Transcript Biofuel Impacts on Midwestern Agriculture Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University January 16, 2007 2007 Wisconsin Fertilizer, Aglime and Pest Management Conference Madison,

Biofuel Impacts on Midwestern
Agriculture
Chad Hart
Center for Agricultural and Rural Development
Iowa State University
January 16, 2007
2007 Wisconsin Fertilizer, Aglime and Pest Management
Conference
Madison, Wisconsin
E-mail: [email protected]
Source: Renewable Fuels Association
06
20
04
20
02
20
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
80
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
19
Billion Gallons
Ethanol Explosion
Biodiesel Growth
250
Million Gallons
200
150
100
50
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Source: National Biodiesel Board
Renewable Fuels Standard
8
7
Billion Gallons
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2006
2007
2008
Source: Renewable Fuels Association
2009
2010
2011
2012
Ethanol Industry Snapshots
Jan. 2000
Jan. 2001
Jan. 2002
Jan. 2003
Jan. 2004
Jan. 2005
Jan. 2006
Jan. 2007
Ethanol Plants
54
56
61
68
72
81
95
110
Source: Renewable Fuels Association
Capacity (mgy)
1,749
1,921
2,347
2,707
3,101
3,644
4,336
5,386
Ethanol – State by State
State
IA
IL
NE
SD
MN
WI
KS
MO
MI
IN
CO
CA
TN
KY
ND
Current Capacity
(million gallons)
1,610
834
597
553
543
230
211
155
150
122
88
69
67
35
34
Biodiesel – State by State
State
IA
TX
MN
TN
OH
MO
IL
AR
CO
OK
FL
GA
IN
LA
MI
Current Capacity
(million gallons)
112
104
63
48
41
36
35
27
27
23
23
19
15
15
15
Historical Corn Utilization
70
60
50
%
40
30
20
10
Marketing Year
Feed
Ethanol
Exports
Other
/0
9
08
/0
8
07
/0
7
06
/0
6
05
/0
5
04
/0
4
03
/0
3
02
/0
2
01
/0
1
00
/0
0
99
/9
9
98
/9
8
97
/9
7
96
95
/9
6
0
Where Are We Headed?
• Based on construction announcements for
ethanol plants, by the end of 2008, ethanol
production capacity could exceed 12 billion
gallons
• Announced biodiesel capacity exceeds 2
billion gallons
Ethanol – State by State
State
IA
NE
IL
SD
MN
IN
WI
KS
TX
OH
MI
ND
NY
MO
OR
Current Capacity Being Built
(million gallons)
1,610
1,230
597
1,163
834
398
553
360
543
351
122
699
230
282
211
240
0
370
4
345
150
107
34
200
0
164
155
0
0
143
Total
2,840
1,760
1,232
913
894
821
512
451
370
349
257
234
164
155
143
Biodiesel – State by State
State
IA
TX
IL
IN
ND
MO
WA
MN
AL
PA
SC
NJ
NE
KY
OH
Current Capacity
112
104
35
15
0
36
5
63
10
9
6
13
0
4
41
Being Built
(million gallons)
235
149
106
105
120
70
101
4
55
55
56
45
55
50
11
Total
347
253
141
120
120
106
106
67
65
64
62
58
55
54
51
Wisconsin is ranked 24th with 25 million gallons of biodiesel capacity being built.
Projected Corn Utilization
70
60
50
%
40
30
20
10
Marketing Year
Feed
Ethanol
Exports
Other
/0
9
08
/0
8
07
/0
7
06
/0
6
05
/0
5
04
/0
4
03
/0
3
02
/0
2
01
/0
1
00
/0
0
99
/9
9
98
/9
8
97
/9
7
96
95
/9
6
0
That’s A Lot of Corn
• 12 billion gallons of ethanol translates into
4.36 billion bushels of corn
– That’s more than the combined corn output of
Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin in 2006.
• Ethanol demand for corn is putting tremendous
pressure on the corn market
• It will likely take both supply and demand
shifts to balance out the corn market.
Beef
Pork
Poultry
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
20
99
19
98
19
97
19
96
19
95
19
Billion Pounds
U.S. Livestock Production
40
35
30
25
20
15
World Corn Exports in 2005/2006
7%
15%
8%
7%
63%
Argentina
China
EU New Member States
United States
Rest of World
Oil Futures As Of 1/8/2007
66
64
$ per barrel
62
60
58
56
54
52
Feb.
2007
Dec.
2007
Dec.
2008
Dec.
2009
Dec.
2010
Dec.
2011
Dec.
2012
15
/2
00
6
9/
29
/2
00
6
10
/1
3/
20
06
10
/2
7/
20
06
11
/1
0/
20
06
11
/2
4/
20
06
12
/8
/2
00
6
12
/2
2/
20
06
1/
5/
20
07
9/
06
/2
0
9/
1
$ per bushel
Nearby Corn Futures
4.00
3.80
3.60
3.40
3.20
3.00
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00
Corn Futures As Of 1/8/2007
3.70
3.65
$ per bushel
3.60
3.55
3.50
3.45
3.40
3.35
Dec. 2007
Dec. 2008
Dec. 2009
Support for More Corn Acres
• Futures prices are providing a definite signal
for more corn acres
• Early projections for the 2007 crop year
indicate acreage in the mid-to-upper 80 million
acre range
• Up substantially from 2006, but will it be
enough?
Where Will the Acreage Come From?
State
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Nebraska
Ohio
South Dakota
Wisconsin
2000-2006 Average
Corn
Soybeans
(acres)
11,421
10,236
5,657
5,571
12,386
10,450
3,314
2,850
1,217
1,279
2,221
2,036
7,214
7,257
2,864
5,050
8,307
4,743
3,371
4,493
4,350
4,179
3,636
1,610
Percentage of
Acreage in Corn
53%
50%
54%
54%
49%
52%
50%
36%
64%
43%
51%
69%
If the States Followed a 2/1 Rotation
Corn
Soybeans
(acres)
14,438
7,219
7,486
3,743
15,224
7,612
4,110
2,055
1,664
832
2,838
1,419
9,648
4,824
5,276
2,638
8,700
4,350
5,243
2,621
5,686
2,843
3,497
1,749
Ethanol-Livestock Synergies
A 50-Million Gallon Ethanol Plant …
• Uses roughly 18.5 million bushels of corn
– In Iowa, corn from 116,000 acres
• Produces 315 million pounds of distillers
grains
– This could feed approx. 60,000 dairy cattle or
17.26 million layers
• Utilizes natural gas/coal in plant operations
– Manure from 60,000 dairy cattle could produce
methane to meet part of the ethanol plant’s energy
needs
The Next Generation of Ethanol Plants
• Plants being constructed in Mead, Nebraska
and Hereford, Texas are modeled on the
ethanol-livestock synergies
• The Mead plant was scheduled to come online
in Dec. 2006
• The Hereford plant is scheduled to be running
by the second half of 2007
E3 Biofuels – Mead, Nebraska
• 24 million gallon ethanol plant paired with a
30,000 head feedlot
• Will process 8 million bushels of corn and
228,000 tons of manure
• The biogas from the manure is projected to
meet the energy needs of the ethanol plant
E3 Biofuels – Mead, Nebraska
• 100,000 tons of wet distillers grains are also
produced and fed to the cattle in the feedlot
– Energy savings of not drying the distillers grains
Panda Ethanol – Hereford, Texas
• 100 million gallon ethanol plant surrounded by
3.5 million head of cattle (within 100 miles)
– “Saudi Arabia of cattle manure”
• Utilizes 40 million bushels of corn and
900,000 tons of wet distillers grains
• Methane derived from manure will be burned
to generate steam to power the plant
10 Observations about Ethanol
1. Ethanol production growth has exceeded
expectations
–
–
Growth has exceeded forecasts and has put the
U.S. on pace to far exceed the RFS
But the industry is approaching another barrier
point (10% of gasoline usage)
2. Gasoline prices are likely to remain high
enough to support ethanol
10 Observations about Ethanol
3. Ethanol margins can remain positive over a
wide corn price range
4. Corn prices are likely to remain higher than
usual
5. Given positive margins, ethanol plants will
be competitive for corn at higher prices
10 Observations about Ethanol
6. To maintain all corn usage demands, the U.S.
will need to dramatically expand corn
acreage
7. Other countries will response to higher corn
prices as well
8. With heighted demand and thin stocks, the
corn market will be more volatile
10 Observations about Ethanol
9. Cellulosic ethanol has tremendous promise,
but it will be several years before cellulosic
ethanol truly impacts the energy markets
10. The merging of the energy and agricultural
sectors will force substantial changes in both
sectors