Transcript From Global-scale Climate Models to Earth System Models: Improvements from AR4 to AR5 V.

From Global-scale
Climate Models to
Earth System Models:
Improvements from AR4 to AR5
V. Ramaswamy
NOAA/ GFDL, Princeton, USA
WCRP Workshop on Regional Climate: Lille, FRANCE
June 14-16, 2010
Motivation
• “EARTH SYSTEM”
 Interactive Gas-phase and Aerosol
Science
 Inclusion of Carbon and other
Biogeochemical cycles of Climate
relevance
• What is happening in terms of research
around the world? AR5, CMIP5
A few examples from some Centers
• Where are we going?
Understanding and Attributing
Climate Change IPCC (2007)
Anthropogenic
warming is
likely
discernible on
all inhabited
continents
Observed
Expected for all
forcings
Natural forcing
only
RADIATIVE FORCING in AR4 from TWO Different Coupled Climate Models
[WGI AR4 Chapter 2]
TOA
SFC
IPCC (2007)
Central India
Fraction of aerosols
above cloud:
Fraction
of aerosols
50-70%
above clouds
K. Krishna Moorthy, Vijayakumar S. Nair, S. Suresh Babu, S. K. Satheesh, Spatial and vertical heterogeneities in aerosol
properties over oceanic regions around India: Implications for radiative forcing, Quarterly Journal of the Royal
Meteorological Society, 135, 2131-2145, 2009
Data taken from LIDAR mounted on an aircraft during the pre-monsoon
season show that in many regions aerosols lie in elevated layers. This
might contribute to “elevated heat pump” mechanism proposed by Lau
et al ( 2006).[Courtesy: Indian Institute of Science.]
[Total aerosol (direct + indirect) effect]
Atmos. + mixed-layer Ocean model
Ming and
Ramaswamy
[J. Clim., 2009]
Coupled Chemistry-Aerosol-Climate model
Clear Sky
NOAA/ GFDL
CM3
Cloudy Sky
SW Radiation
Activation
Droplets
Aerosols
Atmosphere
LW Radiation
Sea Ice
Evaporation
Precipitation
Land
Surface Flux
Ocean
SST
Mixed-Layer
Deep Ocean
Global Air Quality and Climate
Aerosols and Climate
NOAA/ GFDL CM3
Coupled Climate Model
Solar Radiation
Well-mixed Greenhouse Gases
Volcanic Aerosols
Atmospheric Dynamics & Physics
Atmospheric Chemistry
Ozone–Depleting Substances
(ODS)
80 km
Stratospheric Chemistry
Tropospheric Chemistry
(gas-phase and aerosol)
Pollutant Emissions
Aerosol-Cloud
Interactions
Dry Deposition
0 km
Land Model
Ocean and Sea Ice Model
CMIP5 / IPCC AR5 Simulations
CO2
Core
SO2
BC
Tier1
Tier2
RCP: Representative Concentration Pathway (“future scenario”)
Impact of Sudden Arctic Sea-Ice Loss on NH Polar Ozone Recovery
Impose sudden loss of summertime
Arctic sea-ice (2025):
• O3 recovery slows over several
decades after the event
• slowing is primarily due to
weaker planetary-wave forcing
of the stratosphere
impose sudden
sea-ice loss
year
(Scinocca et al 2009)
Multi-Model Antarctic Ozone Hole Formation and Recovery
Column Ozone [DU]
Multi-model projections show:
WMO 2010, SPARC
Report 2010
• O3 will begin to recover in
the first or second decade
of the 21st Century and will
recover to its 1980 value by
roughly 2060
(Austin and Scinocca Chapter 9, SPARC Ozone Report)
Moving from Climate to Earth System Models:
Balancing the carbon cycle
Atmospheric circulation and radiation
Climate Model
Sea Ice
Ocean circulation
Land physics
and hydrology
Atmospheric circulation and radiation
Allows interactive CO2
Earth System
Model
Sea Ice
Ocean ecology and
biogeochemistry
Ocean circulation
NOAA/ GFDL
Plant ecology and
land use
Land physics
and hydrology
Hadley Center
(UKMO)
PHYSICAL CLIMATE
Direct and
Direct, Indirect
indirect effects
Effects
GrGrigeGreenh EffectGrr
Greenhouse
Effect
GREENHOUSE GASES
AEROSOLS
HadGEM2
Aerosol
oxidation
Aerosol oxid.
DMS, dust
DMS,
dust
emissions
emiss.
Fe fertiliz.
CO
CO2
2
CH4, O3
CHEMISTRY
© Crown copyright
Met Office
Wetland CH4,
Wetland
dry dep, stomatal
CH
uptake
4, dry
dep,
stomatal
uptake
ECOSYSTEMS
LAND
OCEAN
Hadley Centre Global
Environmental Model 2
(HadGEM2)
• Components (CMIP5 runs)
– Atmosphere, ocean, sea-ice, land surface
– Land ecosystems: dynamic vegetation, soil
carbon
– Ocean ecosystems: NPZD, diatoms, nondiatoms,
– Aerosols: Sulphate, BC, OC, dust, sea salt
– Tropospheric chemistry: ozone, methane,
oxidants
• Additional couplings (for timeslice expts.):
Hadley
– Ozone damage, nitrate aerosols, BVOC
Center
Collins
et al. (in prep)emissions, direct/diffuse radiation
© Crown copyright
(UKMO)
Met Office
The Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM1 and CanESM2)
Anthropogenic
CO2 emissions
Schematic shows interactions between ‘physical
climate’ model and new terrestrial and ocean
ecosystem components.
CanAM3
Prescribed concentrations of CH4,
N2O and CFCs
Simple atmospheric chemistry
CO2 release
Photosynthesis
CLASS
CO2
CO2
uptake
Running now for CMIP5 and IPCC AR5.
Leaves
Stem
Initial results in:
Arora, V. K., G. J. Boer, J. R. Christian, C. L. Curry, K. L. Denman, K.
Zahariev, G. M. Flato, J. F. Scinocca, W. J. Merryfield, W. G. Lee
(2009) The effect of terrestrial photosynthesis down-regulation on the
20th century carbon budget simulated with the CCCma Earth System
Litter
Soil
Carbon
Roots
Model, J. Clim., 22, 6066-6088.
Canadian Model of Ocean Carbon
(CMOC)
Note: significant DFO contribution to this
Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model
(CTEM)
b) CanESM1
a) Observation-based
380
CO2 (ppm)
CO2 (ppm)
380
370
360
370
360
350
350
50
-50
Lat 0
itud
e
50
Latitude
1992
1994
1996
Yea
Year
1998
2000
La
titu
0
de
-50
r
Latitude
Observed and modelled change in zonal mean CO2 concentration
2000
1992
1998
1994
1996
1996
1994
1998
ear
YearY
1992
2000
Community Earth System Model
• NCAR and partners will make a major contribution to IPCC AR5 through
simulations performed with the latest version of the CESM
• CMIP5 is a 5-year experimental design, but a significant fraction
of the experiments will be done in time to be included in AR5
o Initialized decadal prediction and climate change (to 2300)
o Ensembles at various horizontal resolutions (1/8° up to 2°)
o Includes carbon cycle, whole atmosphere, interactive chemistry, land ice
CESM Prognostic Carbon Simulations (Keith Lindsay et al. 2011)
Surface CO2 Concentration
CO2 Surface Flux
(20 yr running average)
ppmv
PgC yr-1
1850-1993
CESM
OBS
Fossil Fuel Emissions
Net
Ocean
Land
GFDL’s Earth System Models of
CO2-biosphere interactions
Goals:
• Anthropogenic carbon uptake by land and ocean
• Impact of increasing carbon and climate change on ecosystems
• Carbon cycle feedbacks on climate change
Shevliakova et al.
(Global Biogeo. Cycles,
2009)
Dunne et al., (Global
Biogeo. Cycles, 2007)
Prototype ESM2.1:
• Based on recent successful CM2.1 climate model used in IPCC AR4
• Terrestrial ecology
• Ocean biogeochemistry
• Atmospheric CO2
Atmospheric
Revised versions (ESM2M and ESM2G) for AR5:
• Enhanced soil hydrology
• Explicit rivers and lakes
• Icebergs
• Revised biogeochemistry and ecology
• Two new ocean models
(MOM4p1 and GOLD)
CO2
Land
Ocean
Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model
(BCC_CSM)
Notes:
Atmosphere
(CUACEAero)
(BCC_AGCM)
Under way
Chemistry
(MOZART-2)
Under way
IPCC AR5
Aerosol
Coupler
Ocean
(SIS)
(MOM4_L40)
Regional Climate
Model (BCC_RegCM)
Land
(BCC_AVIM)
Seasonal climate
prediction
Sea Ice
BCC_AGCM2.0 (T42L26):
Originated from CAM3.
Developed by BCC.
Model Dynamics: Wu et al.(2008,
J.Atmos.Sci.)
Model Physics：Wu et al. (2010,
Climate Dynamics)
BCC_AVIM1.0:
Developed by BCC.
Coupled with the dynamic vegetation
and land carbon cycle processes.
MOM4_L40 (gx1v1):
Developed by GFDL.
Modified by BCC.
A carbon cycle module (from OCMIP2)
with simple biogeochemical processes
was introduced.
SIS(gx1v1):
Developed by GFDL.
Next frontier?
Earth Systems Modeling
AND
Capturing Regional, High-Resolution
Phenomena
N-C. Lau
(pers. comm.)
N-C. Lau
(pers. comm.)
Acknowledgments
W. Collins [Hadley Center, UKMO]
G. Flato, J. Scinocca [Canadian Climate Center]
J. Hurrell [National Center for Atmospheric Research]
J. Dunne, L. Horowitz, N-C. Lau, R. Stouffer [NOAA/
GFDL]
J. Srinivasan [Indian Institute of Science]
X. Zhu [Beijing Climate Center]
THE END
Thank you for your attention