Transcript World Climate Research Programme: Plans and Priorities THORPEX ICSC September 2011 Geneva, Switzerland Ghassem R Asrar.

World Climate Research
Programme: Plans and Priorities
THORPEX ICSC
September 2011
Geneva, Switzerland
Ghassem R Asrar
• Strategy and Implementation Plan
• Key Activities in 2010/2011
• Future Functions and Structure
• Expectations/Outcomes from JSC-32
• Joint Activities with WWRP/THORPEX
Mission & Objectives
World Climate Research Programme coordinates
international climate research, modeling and
analysis to improve:
(1) climate predictions and
(2) our understanding of human influence on climate
“for use in an increasing range of practical applications
of direct relevance, benefit and value to society”
(WCRP Strategic Framework 2005-2015).
WCRP Implementation Plan
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The Interdisciplinary Nature of Climate Science
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Atmosphere, Oceans and Climate
Cryosphere and Climate
Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate
Water, Energy and Climate
Meeting the Information Needs of Society
Activities in Support of Key Deliverables
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Decadal Variability, Predictability and Prediction
Sea-Level Variability and Change
Climate Extremes
Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics
Centennial Climate Change Projections
Seasonal Climate Prediction
Activities in Support of WCRP Integrating Themes
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Climate-Quality Data Sets and Analyses
A New Generation of Climate/Earth System Models
Next Generation of Climate Experts: Developing Capacity Regionally and Globally
Key Activities in 2010/11
• WCRP Open Science Conference
• Climate modelling coordination (CMIP5, CHFP)
• Regional modelling & analysis, CORDEX
• Global data sets & reprocessing of GEWEX observations
• Polar Predictability Initiative
• Drought & Extremes Workshops
• Reanalysis – plans for major conference, May 2012
• WCRP Planning for future, OSC
Modeling Coordination Meeting
• The purpose of this meeting was to follow up on the recommendations of
the World Modelling Summit, and actions resulting from the JSC meeting
in Antalya, Turkey, on the subject of modelling.
• The JSC discussed at length the formation of a WCRP Modelling Council in
the context of WCRP visioning and future direction to carry out the
following functions:
– Promoting greater use of observations and results of process studies in/with models;
– Promoting collaboration amongst various climate science communities (includes
numerical weather prediction (NWP), seasonal to interannual prediction, and climate
projection as well as those dealing with biogeochemistry, air quality, terrestrial ecology,
etc.);
– Promoting application of models to problems of societal relevance, quantifying
uncertainties and making sure they are well communicated and understood;
– Promoting the model development and improvements.
Research Contributions to Climate
Services
Task Team: Chair Greg Flato
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Coming out of last year's JSC meeting, one of the action items was to develop the WCRP position
on research in support of climate services.
Charge: to form a sub-set of the JSC and some of the Project co-chairs to follow up on
discussions/deliberations at the JSC, our latest input to the GFCS High Level Task Team, and to
develop further the role of WCRP Research in Climate Services.
Topics for consideration:
What are the envisioned contributions of WCRP to the Framework for Climate Services?
What are the potential strategies/approaches for development and sharing of the climate
knowledge and resulting from WCRP and its affiliate Projects with potential partners?
Who are the potential partners external to WCRP?
What role WCRP can and should play in facilitating and promoting best practices in development
and dissemination of reliable climate information? (Implicit in this request is consideration of what
we should not be doing?.)
How should WCRP best organize itself in this regard?
WCRP Data Council
Transition Plan from WOAP to a Data Council
Sarah Gille, Chair from JSC
Mike Manton, WOAP Chair
Adrian Simmons, GCOS
Karl Taylor, CLIVAR
Colin Jones or CORDEX rep.
Jeff Key, CliC
Norm McFarlane, Executive Sec.
Mike Bosilovich, Re-analysis
Toshio Koike WCRP Info System
Chris Kummerow, GEWEX
Veronika Eyring, Modeling Council Meeting
Michaela Haegglin, SPARC
Charge: Identify WCRP functions in coordinating research on observations and new observations
required for climate research, especially for process understanding and model development and
evaluation.
Identify WCRP functions in coordinating the development, stewardship and dissemination of climate
information resulting from its research, modeling and analysis activities.
Develop a framework for coordination an integration of pan-WCRP observations, analysis and
information management activities identified above;
Recommend how the proposed framework should be organized and supported within WCRP in a
manner that is complimentary and value added to the activities of Projects and sister programmes (e.g.
GCOS, CEOS, GEOSS, WIS, etc.).
WCRP JSC 32, Met Office, Exeter, UK 4-8
4-8 April 2011
Agenda & Expectations and Outcomes
•Discuss the transition/evolution of the WCRP and its core projects
•Discuss the WCRP Open Science Conference agenda and its
outcome for developing the future functions and structure of the
Programme and Projects
• JSC 32 outcomes
– Modelling Council Approved
• Earth System prediction with IGBP,WWRP,…
– Data Council Approved– TOR was developed
– WG on Regional climate science & info. formed
• A team was established to define scope and charter
– Cross-cut on Communication w/IOC
– Sustained Ocean Obs. Task Team – Identify WCRP
role after release of their report
Coordination & Partnerships
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Scientific and Technical Conferences
Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC)
Polar Research, Modeling and Prediction
Season and Sub-seasonal Weather/Climate
Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate
Education and Capacity Development
Geo-engineering
Coordination & Partnerships
Year Of Tropical Convection
• CINDY DYNAMO field phase (Oct 2011-jan
2012)
• YOTC Giovanni data dissemination framework
- providing user-friendly access to the YOTC
satellite archive.
• MJO Task Force still active – meets at OSC
Climate Historical Forecast Project
• Provide baseline assessment of seasonal prediction
capabilities using the best available models and data for
initialization
• Provide experimental framework for focused research
on how various components of the climate system interact
and affect one another
• Provide a test-bed for evaluating IPCC class models in
seasonal prediction
• Provide framework for assessing current and planned
observing systems
• Integrate process studies/field campaigns into model
improvements
Experiment Protocol
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Best Possible Observationally Based Initialization of Components of
Climate System
– Role for each of core WCRP projects
– Key: No future information after initialization
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Seven Month Lead Ensemble (10 member), Fully Interactive Predictions of
the Climate System
– Predictions Initialized Four Times per Year for Each Year 1979– Some Groups Extend to Decadal Time Scales (WCRP crosscut)
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Agreed upon output (variables, frequency, …)
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International Multi-Institution Participation
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Diagnostic sub-projects
– will involve extensive interactions among WCRP projects/panels
Participating Groups
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EU ENSEMBLES (Linked Server)
UKMET (CIMA)
APCC (Linked Server)
NOAA-NCEP
NOAA-GFDL
NASA-GMAO (Jan 2012)
COLA-UMiami-NCAR (September 2011)
BMRC
JMA (CIMA)
Completed
Hindcasts Done, Data Transfer
CCCma (CIMA)
Pending
CPTEC
Hindcasts Nearly Completed
IRI
Black – Status Pending
http://chfps.cima.fcen.uba.ar/
CIMA CHFP Data Server
Coordination & Partnerships
Significant role for land-atmosphere
coupling in seasonal predictability
GLACE-2
Goal of determining prediction skill associated with
accurate initialization of land surface states
• Coordinated set of experiments involving 12 models
• Twin experiments using realistic/unrealistic land initialization
• Difference indicates skill due to land-atmosphere coupling
• Complements CHFP protocol (no future information included)
• Data available from NASA GSFC
Coordination & Partnerships
Additional predictability likely
associated with stratospheric dynamics
Stratosphere resolving HFP
Goal of quantifying skill gained initializing and
resolving stratosphere in seasonal forecast systems
• Parallel hindcasts from stratosphere resolving and
non-resolving models
• Action from WGSIP-12: Endorse as subproject of CHFP
• SPARC to recommend diagnostics
Coordination & Partnerships
TIGGE Representation (P. Silva Dias) at WGSIP-13
Several Area of Potential Collaboration Identified
• Ocean-atmosphere coupling impact sub-seasonal
forecast skill
• Role of resolution on forecast skill
• Scale interactions
• Ensemble techniques
Coordination & Partnerships
WCRP Workshop on Polar Predictability on
Seasonal to Multi-Decadal Timescales
• Bergen, Norway, 25-29 October 2010, ~80 participants
• Focus on scientific challenges, rather than programmatic
• Despite limited investment and emphasis in the past, early results
concerning the extent of polar predictability show promise.
• We understand many of the physical sources of predictability in the
polar climate system, but there is lack of a good understanding of many
of the feedback mechanisms between the different components of the
climate system, and the physical causality of the large-scale modes of
variability in the polar regions.
Coordination & Partnerships
Explore seasonal predictability
associated with snow and sea ice
Several areas of potential collaboration:
• CHFP protocol encourages interactive ice models: additional
experiments with diagnostics for cryosphere
• Sea ice prediction and initialization Experimental
Protocol Developed and Numerical Experiments
Underway
• Spring snow melt into soil moisture and influence on spring
temperature anomalies
Coordination & Partnerships
Resulting WCRP Polar Predictability Initiative
• Examples of possible research foci:
– Seasonal predictability and seasonality of long-term changes
– Forced and unforced components of decadal predictability
– Initial state estimates
– Extent of potential predictability
• The first action would be to hold a focused meeting, to develop a
detailed implementation plan (beginning of 2012).
• Cooperation with partners, e.g. with Thorpex (and Polar
Thorpex) essential, Chair invited, joint work foreseen.
• This could be a contribution to the WMO Global Integrated
Polar Prediction System (GIPPS), and an element of the potential
International Polar Decade initiative.
See You in Denver!
WCRP Open Science Conference
24-28 October 2011
Denver, Colorado, USA
http://conference2011.wcrp-climate.org
Promoting, Facilitating and Coordinating
Climate Research in Service to Society