Transcript 20/20 Vision: the Science, the Technologies, the Facilities and the Politics That May Drive Space Astrophysics in the 21st Century November 15, 2007 James H.

20/20 Vision: the Science, the
Technologies, the Facilities and the
Politics That May Drive Space
Astrophysics in the 21st Century
November 15, 2007
James H. Crocker
Vice President, Sensing & Exploration Systems
0000.PPT 11/6/2015 1
Bayeau Tapestry
Battle of Hastings
14 Oct 1066
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Emergence
• Emergence refers to the way
complex systems and
patterns arise out of a
number of relatively simple
interactions.
• In dealing with complex
systems its helpful to
understand the “Strange
Attractors” influencing the
motion
• We too often focus solely on
the Science we want to do
or the Technology we want
to build with out knowledge
of the larger context and
forces at play
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ALMA
> $ 1 Billion US
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Ground-Based Observatories
•
•
•
•
ESO
VLT
Keck Telescope
Gemini Telescope
Subaru Telescope
Very Large
Telescope (VLT)
• Very Large Array
(VLA)
Subaru
Subaru Telescope, NAOJ
Gemini
NRAO / AUI / NSF
Keck
W. M. Keck Observatory
VLA
Gemini Observatory/AURA
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The Great Observatories
•
•
•
•
Compton
Compton
Hubble
Spitzer
Chandra
Spitzer
NASA
Hubble
NASA - MSFC
Chandra
NASA
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The Golden Age of AstronomyLiterally !
• Why are we allowed to spend literally Billions of
$$$, not an insignificant % of the federal budget
on these missions ?
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Sputnik Changed
Everything!
This geopolitical
earthquake
fundamentally
changed the
way we look
at science
and science
funding.
1957
NY Times
front page
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Sputnik was part of a truly emergent
phenomenon that continues to today
• Its why many of us went into science and
engineering
• Its why the federal government funds science at
the level it does
• Its why private individuals and foundations do as
well
• It why we went to the moon ( we didn’t really go
for science
• AND its why Space Science is linked at the hip to
Human Space Exploration
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Looking Back
• At the turn of the last century we did not even
know why stars shine
• There was not extragalactic astronomy because
we didn’t know about galaxies outside of our own.
• At the midpoint of the century the Steady State
model was just being successfully challenged by
the Big Bang Model
• The progress in the last half of the century has
been…..Amazing
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What About the few Decades?
• What will be the questions that resonate with the public,
the policy makers and the research community?
• When it requires 20+ years of commitment to sustain a
mission, the reasons to carry it out need to be
compelling, durable , and easily communicated (i.e.
JWST see first stars to form in the universe)
• What was the nature of the Big Bang?
• How did galaxies form?
• What is the nature of dark matter and dark energy?
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New NASA Missions
•
•
•
•
JWST
Constellation X
James Webb Space Telescope
LISA – Gravity Wave Experiment
Joint Dark Energy Mission (JDEM)
NASA
Constellation X
NASA
ESA
NASA, LBNL
LISA
JDEM
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Predictions
• Sputnik’s echo will reverberate into the first half
of the next century keeping exploration alive.
• Funding for NASA will remain constant (+ $1 billion).
• New large astrophysics missions will be constrained to
the same funding line. Overall astrophysics flat at best.
• We will have $250-300 million per year (less over runs)
• Technical readiness will trump the “question.”
• Missions will be selected more on cost feasibility and
technical readiness than the science priority.
• JWST will be followed by JDEM and LISA, or
Constellation X based on perceived technical
readiness.
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How did JDEM get in the Head of the
Line?
• Important Mapping/Survey missions can be done
with a smaller aperture at any stage of discovery
(SDSS for example on the ground)
• “Mapping/Survey” missions are needed to “Fill in”
our knowledge at each stage of discovery.
• Kepler, COBY, WMAP are all examples.
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The Conundrum
• For hundreds of years progress in our field has
come dependably with increase in the scale of our
instruments. Moore's Law only partially applies.
• Major advances come with factors of >10X
improvements in our instruments
• Like particle physics, it just cost more to first
order- its physics!
• If it cost $2B-4B to do a Great Observatory and we
have $250M year that’s 8 to 16 years, but …design
life is 5 years without servicing…..
Do not lose site of the fact that $250M is a lot of money !
This is a incredible fact!
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What Could Change This?
• What other missions could align the politics and
public interest to encourage the commitment of
additional billions of dollars?
• The vision of space exploration developed in the
early part of the last century was based on “Other
Worlds”
• We now have found ~250 at last count… but….
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Terrestrial Planet Finder
NASA
NASA
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Ares V & Terrestrial Planet Finder
Ares V would
enable such a
observatory, a true
follow on to Hubble
NASA
NASA
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Use of Exploration Architecture:
Looking Back
• Sky Lab was a direct out growth of Apollo, the
Apollo Applications Program
• Hubble was a payload for the Space Shuttle.
• So what do we propose, that gets us a ride ?
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Ares V Exploration Mission
• Choose ONE
– 8+ meter, simple, monolith, NIR, optical, UV
observatory. Serviceable to last 25 years with
human and/or robotic servicing. Trade
increased mass and simple technology for $$$
savings
– OR
– 8X16 meter multi app, partially dilute ,54 sq m,
serviceable, same effective collecting area
great resolution,
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Star-9 Distributed Aperture Telescope
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New York Times – 2057
100 Years
after Sputnik
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