Transcript Implications of going “Beyond” Climate Science Eric J. Barron National Center for Atmospheric Research March 26, 2009

Implications of going “Beyond”
Climate Science
Eric J. Barron
National Center for Atmospheric
Research
March 26, 2009
A Few Statements
A large human population striving for a higher standard
of living = impact from our land use, energy use, and
waste products
U.N.
Because human impact is global, the notion of “refugia”
(protected areas) will be very difficult to sustain – instead
we are on a path of “Earth management” - moving
rapidly from a “refugia” approach to one of “all places
managed” (our decisions will impact all places)
A Few Statements
Our response to change will include a combination of
adaptation (adjusting to change) and mitigation (actively
working to prevent change) – but we don’t know the
“balance” that is needed or workable
Without a deliberate approach to environmental
intelligence we will be ineffective or at least hit and miss
in our decisions.
Alaska Coastal
Village Commission
A Few More Statements
We need a rational approach: simultaneously protect life
and property, promote economic vitality, and be good
stewards of the environment
We know that we have a problem, and neither the robust
philosophical underpinnings (what is a “safe” amount of
climate change) nor the Earth management sciences are
in place.
The prospects of climate change forces us to confront
the importance of each of these statements
Yet, ready or not, we are about
to jump beyond climate science
The Science is settled
Focus on mitigation strategies
The investment in climate sciences is
enough to make the decisions we need to
make
My view – big mistake to think this way:
5 major areas that we need to address
(1) We need a true Climate Services
function to enable effective response
“Services” function if :
– Significant linkages exist between climate and
human endeavors
– Characterization of uncertainties is deliberate
– Access to authoritative, credible and useful
information is a key part of the service
function
– Users and providers recognize each others
needs and limitations
– Users are capable of responding to useful
information
An Evolving Status - Climate
Service
Write only memory
Over the transom
Directed tosses over the transom
Product design and assessment
User-provider partnership
Climate Services Needs
Based on what data and authority will we move the
Alaska coastal village (and to where) that is subject to
winter wave energy as sea ice disappears?
Should the Forest Service replant pine trees (destroyed
by pine bark beetle infestation), plant a resistant species,
plant a new species, or do nothing?
What authoritative voice will be utilized to renegotiate the
Colorado River compact?
Whose data or model output will be used to decide the
management balance between preservation, hydro
power and the salmon industry in Washington river
systems and then have it survive the first legal
challenge?
(2) We need to deliberately expand the
family of forecasting elements
Our ability to anticipate is what makes
knowledge powerful to society
Protect Life and Property
Promote Economic Vitality
Improve Environmental Stewardship
Promote Fundamental Understanding
Bring the discipline of forecasting to a
wider family of products
A Natural Expansion is Occurring
Weather
Severe events
Pollen
UV alerts
Pollution alerts
El Nino
The discipline of forecasting – the strength
of the weather and climate communities –
has potential as a tremendous contribution
An Example
Human Health
– Clear tie to weather and climate
Distribution and timing of vectors, “over-wintering” (e.g.
mosquitoes), incubation periods, availability of hosts, food
availability for hosts, contact with human populations, etc.
Heat waves, air pollution, etc.
– Medical response tends to be “point of
service” – reacts to incoming cases (almost
no discipline of forecasting)
– Therefore, real potential if we can design
monitoring algorithms or predictive capability
Potential to Forecast – PA county correlation
between Lyme Disease cases and warm days
in fall from the prior year (also correlates with
fall snow cover in the prior year)
600
y = 19.998x - 429.36
R2 = 0.6842
500
Cases
400
300
200
100
0
20
25
30
35
F 50n60 tt
40
45
50
(3) We must invest seriously in the stage 2
sciences
Always the groomsmen and never the groom
– Human dimensions of global change
– So-called impact and assessment sciences
We are either focused entirely on reducing uncertainties
in climate prediction or focused on a call to action to
respond to the dangers of climate change
Much of the science in between is inadequate
The coupling of the physical sciences, human
dimensions and impact sciences is rarely co-located in
institutions or funding agencies
My bet: We will have demonstrable failures with the
potential to create stalling points for a decade(s)
Simulated Biomes
30,000 years ago
Tundra simulated
Evergreen forests
simulated
Observations:
Tundra and
permafrost
Southern Grasslands
well simulated
Models tied closely to modern data may be significantly
flawed
50 years of intensive climate model
development is being coupled to what
amounts to a cottage industry of
ecosystem modelers, environment
and human health modelers, etc…..
(even worse for considering multiple stresses)
(4) We need to deliberately tackle
the issue of scale and the demand
for an integrated approach
Failure of “cause and effect” approaches
Recognition of role of “multiple stresses” in every
environment (land use/character, waste
products, climate and weather)
The impacts and decisions are frequently “placebased” but the drivers of change combine
factors that range from global to local
Increase our emphasis on
Regional Scales
Mismatch of scales - problems are often regional
or local while our observing and modeling efforts
tend to be focused on increasing complexity
(difficult to manage) at global scales
Currently incapable of putting a global integrated
picture together at a scale suitable for most
decision-makers
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than
water and water resources
Example: The Hurricane and
Climate Change Argument
Simulated Cat 4 Hurricane Landfall in
Louisiana, October 10 2046
Holland,GaTech 1108
1
Invest in A More Realistic
Approach
Create an integrated approach at a
tractable scale – a region or a state(s)
defined by a set of problems
Climate-quality mesonets and regional
climate models
Build toward a national and global
framework based on advances at a
regional scale
Success creates a data and model “pull”
(5) We need to evolve from independent
climate services & modeling efforts to
Environmental “Intelligence” Centers
Imagine
– A cohesive regional observation framework
– A data management and access system that
places all information at your finger tips
– Framework for regional “predictive” model
development expanding the forecasting family
– Investment in human dimensions and impact
sciences (water, health, ecosystems) –
partnership with and among the physical sciences
– Framework for directed process studies
– Vigorous connections with users and decisionmakers
What does this mean for
observing?
The extraordinary challenge of “mesonets” for
regional decisions and science with the
requirement for global observations and analysis
The central role of atmospheric and oceanic
observing with the extraordinary challenge of
integrating observations across many disciplines
in a meaningful way and making that information
accessible
Cost-effective, climate-suitable, dense observing
Science of observing system design with a much
broader focus on data assimilation
Commentary
We seem to move between two
frameworks
– We don’t know enough and we need to better tackle
uncertainties before we take action
– We know enough, it is time to focus on action
Better
– We know enough to take many actions (the problem
is serious), we have a long way to go before we have
confidence in our ability to “manage” the Earth (read –
make decisions that impact every place)
We need a new “movement” – climate
change you can believe in – Rational
Environmentalism
– You cannot have a large human population
without large impact
– Neither calling hoax nor stressing fear have a
long shelf life
– No one has added “nicotine” to energy and no
one can deny the improvements in Pittsburgh’s
air quality without harming the economy
– We know that responding will include adaptation
and mitigation – and we don’t know the “balance”
that is needed or workable
– We are on a path of “Earth management” and
moving rapidly from a “refugia” approach to one
of “all places managed”
We need a new “movement” – climate change you
can believe in – Rational Environmentalism
– Without a deliberate approach to environmental
intelligence we will be ineffective or at least hit
and miss.
Observing system design is a critical component of this
approach
– Equally important, we need a more rational
objective: simultaneously protect life and
property, promote economic vitality and be good
stewards
– Bottom line: We are focused on scoring points,
with us or against us, when we all really know
that we have a problem, and neither the robust
philosophical underpinnings nor the Earth
management sciences are in place.
Opportunity
The steps required to “manage the earth”
(adaptation and mitigation) will be
transformative